Expectations are high for the Missouri Tigers and they'll have every opportunity to get their year off to a strong start against the Murray State Racers tonight.
The Racers are mediocre even by FCS standards while the Tigers are the No. 11 ranked team in the country, so it isn't surprising that they're massive 49.5-point home favorites here. However, my Murray State vs. Missouri predictions don't expect Mizzou to run up the score.
Keep reading to see why in my college football picks for this Week 1 college football showdown.
Murray State vs Missouri prediction
My best bet
Under 60.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Missouri Tigers return most of their pieces from an attack that averaged 32.3 ppg including quarterback Brady Cook. Cook completed 66.4% of his passes 3,189 yards and 20 touchdowns with another eight scores on the ground. He gets back his five leading receivers from a year ago led by AP Preseason All-American Luther Burden III. That said, this total might be a tad inflated in a contest where Mizzou should cruise to victory.
When Mizzou faced small-school opponents early last season they didn't run up the score, beating South Dakota 35-10 and edging Middle Tennessee 23-19. Cook attempted just 19 passes against the Blue Raiders while throwing for just 172 yards against the Coyotes.
In games where the Tigers were comfortably ahead of their opponents, Cook was rarely asked to do much and they leaned on their ground game. While All-American RB Cody Schrader is gone, Mizzou grabbed Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll from the transfer portal and both backs will eat in this contest.
The Murray State Racers are led by a first-time head coach in Jody Wright and their roster has 65 new players. That said, massive personnel turnover is probably a good thing for a program that ended last year with a 2-9 record in their first year in the Missouri Valley Football Conference.
Those changes should lead to an improvement on defense where they added several Div 1 caliber athletes to their secondary. Roster upheaval will hurt more on offense where experience and chemistry will need to be developed on the fly. The Racers lost their top receiver in TE Cole Rusk and will start a freshman RB along with a new QB in Jayden Johannsen who is making a big jump up in competition after playing Div II ball at South Dakota Mines.
Murray State vs Missouri same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 60.5
Murray State +48.5
Since we're betting on this game to below the total, it would be mathematically difficult for Mizzou to cover this number. The market is probably a bit too bullish on the Tigers after a season where they finished as the No. 9 team in the country and oddsmakers might be underrating the Racers who have nowhere to go but up.
The Tigers will have a tough time finding any game film on Murray State and many of their new players, so game-planning won't be easy. That could to a feeling-out process for the Tigers and by the time they pull away, head coach Eliah Drinkwitz will try to work in second-string players.
We should even see backup pivot Drew Pyne who comes over from Arizona State and could be Mizzou's QB of the future. That would make it tough for the Tigers to cover this lofty spread.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Murray State vs Missouri odds
Murray State vs Missouri live odds
Murray State vs Missouri opening odds
- Spread: Murray State +47.5 | Missouri -47.5
- Moneyline: Murray State +1,300 | Missouri -100,000
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 | Under 57.5
Murray State vs Missouri spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on Missouri and the Over, shifting the spread from -47.5 to -49.5 and moving the total up to 60.5.
- Missouri went 11-2 SU and 9-3 ATS last year and won the Cotton Bowl by beating Ohio State.
- The Tigers retain most of their starters on offense but five of their best defenders (including three starters in their secondary) were drafted into the NFL during the offseason.
- The Racers went 2-9 last year, finishing 10th out of 12 teams in the MVFC in scoring (16.6 ppg) while ranking 11th in scoring defense (36.6 ppg).
Murray State vs Missouri betting trend to know
The first half Game Total Under has cashed in Missouri's last 6 games. Find more college football betting trends for Murray State vs Missouri.
Murray State vs Missouri game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Murray State vs Missouri latest injuries
Murray State vs Missouri weather
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