Nebraska vs Indiana Prediction, Picks, Odds, and Best Bet: Defense Reigns Supreme in Bloomington

Despite owning one of the top offenses in college football, Ed Scimia believes Indiana's defense will be the difference-maker here against an inconsistent Cornhuskers side.

Ed Scimia - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ed Scimia • Betting Analyst
Oct 17, 2024 • 12:00 ET • 4 min read

NCAAF

Match starts: 45 hrs
IU
64 %
NEB
36 %
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Indiana Hoosiers NCAAF
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The Indiana Hoosiers will put their undefeated record on the line this Saturday when they host the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a Big Ten conference matchup at Memorial Stadium. 

I’m expecting both defenses to show up big in this one, which is why I’m targeting the Under in my Nebraska vs. Indiana predictions this weekend.

Read on to learn why I’m predicting a low-scoring game in my free college football picks for Saturday, October 19. 

Nebraska vs Indiana prediction and best bet

My best bet
Under 50.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The Indiana Hoosiers have been absolutely tearing through its schedule so far this season. The Hoosiers are already bowl-eligible at 6-0 and have won every game by at least two touchdowns. They’ve scored 41+ points in five of those games, ranking third in the nation in offensive scoring.

Does that mean that Indiana is a juggernaut headed for the College Football Playoff? Probably not. The Hoosiers have played a fairly weak schedule, and really haven’t run into much resistance. Their toughest test so far was against the Maryland Terrapins, and that game ended in a 42-28 win for Indiana.

That will change on Saturday when the Hoosiers welcome the Nebraska Cornhuskers into town. The Cornhuskers are a 5-1 team that has been among the best defensive squads in the nation, allowing just 11.3 ppg to its opponents. That number might be lower if not for a horribly disappointing performance against the Illinois Fighting Illini, who stunned Nebraska in a 31-24 upset. Outside of that game, nobody has scored more than 10 points against the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska has allowed just 4.4 yards per play, and while it has been especially potent against the running game, it is also holding opposing passers to just 6.0 yards per attempt. And while it hasn’t played a highly difficult schedule either, it has faced tougher competition than Indiana. The Cornhuskers held a talented Colorado Buffaloes offense to just 10 points, for instance, limiting Colorado to just 260 yards of total offense. 

I’m not suggesting that Nebraska can entirely shut down Indiana, but this will be a far better defense than anything the Hoosiers have played yet this year. Thankfully for the Hoosiers, they can play more than enough defense to give themselves a good chance of getting a home win. 

While we’ve focused on its offense, Indiana’s defense has been excellent as well, holding its opponents to just 14.8 ppg. While the Hoosiers aren’t as impressive defensively as Nebraska, they won’t have to be, as the Cornhuskers have only averaged 28.0 ppg, and will likely struggle to move the ball against an Indiana defense that is seventh in the country in total yardage defense, allowing just 255.7 yards per game.

Neither team should be particularly explosive in this one, meaning this will look more like a typical Nebraska game this season than one of Indiana’s shootouts. I’m taking the Under.

Nebraska vs Indiana same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 50.5

Indiana -6.5

While I think both defenses will have their moments on Saturday, the Hoosiers have the better chance of breaking through to score thanks to an offense that is averaging an impressive 47.5 ppg. Senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this year and should be able to guide Indiana to another win this weekend. 

That’s why I’m pairing the Under with a bet on Indiana to cover the spread. This game rates out as one where the Hoosiers should be favored by about a touchdown, but we can get on the better side of that line. As long as you can give less than seven points, I’d parlay the Hoosiers with the Under for a solid SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nebraska vs Indiana odds

Nebraska vs Indiana live odds

Nebraska vs Indiana opening odds

  • Nebraska vs. Indiana spread: Indiana -6.5
  • Nebraska vs. Indiana moneyline: Nebraska +188, Indiana -229
  • Nebraska vs. Indiana Over/Under: 50.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Nebraska vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Both teams have performed well against the spread this season, with Nebraska going 4-1-1 ATS, while Indiana has posted a 5-1 ATS record.
  • The Cornhuskers are 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings with the Hoosiers. 
  • The Over has a 5-1 record in Indiana’s games this year, with the Under has the same 5-1 advantage when Nebraska has played.
  • The Hoosiers are playing to an average total of 62.8 ppg this season, while the Cornhuskers are averaging a total of 39.3 points. 

Nebraska vs Indiana betting trend to know

Nebraska has played to a total of Under 50 points in five of its six games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Nebraska vs Indiana.

Nebraska vs Indiana game info

Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
Date: Saturday, 10-19-2024
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

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Ed Scimia - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Ed Scimia has been writing about the gaming industry for over 15 years. He graduated from Syracuse University with degrees in Magazine Journalism and Political Science in 2003, and has covered major gambling events like the World Series of Poker in his career. Since joining Covers in 2022, Ed has offered his sports betting analysis primarily on MLB, NFL, college football, and college basketball games, but is willing to take on any sport.

His betting strategy focuses more on finding line value based on deviations from the market rather than traditional handicapping, primarily shopping between DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics in his home state of Connecticut, though he’s not afraid to do deep game analysis to find profitable bets at any book.

Outside of gambling, Ed is an avid curler who competes in mixed doubles on the World Curling Tour and runs a popular curling YouTube channel, Chess on Ice. That experience has come in handy during the Olympics, when he has proven to be a successful curling bettor as well. 

Ed's advice to new bettors is to always open multiple sportsbook accounts and check the odds at each before placing any bet. Successful sports betting is about consistently beating the closing line value, which requires finding spots where one book is offering odds far better than the rest of the market and jumping on those opportunities.

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