Nebraska vs Ohio State Prediction and Picks: Points Will Be Rare for Raiola & Co.

The last time Ohio State was on the field, it lost to Oregon by one point. The last time Nebraska was on the field, it scored just seven points in a loss to Indiana.

With both teams led by hard-nosed defenses and inconsistent offenses, I expect points to be hard to come by in my Nebraska vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 26.

Nebraska vs Ohio State prediction and best bet

My best bet
Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Taking this Under has far more to do with the way the Nebraska Cornhuskers offense matches up with the Ohio State Buckeyes defense than anything else.

While true freshman Dylan Raiola has had some flashy moments in his effort to be the next Patrick Mahomes, he’s far better at copying Mahomes’ mannerisms than in his actual play on the field.

The Cornhuskers offense is just 86th in SP+ this season and 89th in points per game (25.0). Scoring has also been far harder for this team since Big Ten play began.

In four conference games, Nebraska is averaging just 18.2 points per game, including scoring 21 total points in its last two outings against Rutgers and Indiana. 

While both of those defenses are talented – 33rd and 22nd in SP+, respectively – Ohio State is a completely different proposition for this offense. The Buckeyes are the No. 1 defense in SP+ and are allowing the third-fewest points per game in the country (11.0).

Nebraska is also a 25.5-point underdog, so it’s fair to assume the Cornhuskers will be playing from behind for a fair amount of the game. That will put even more pressure on Raiola, who has gone four straight games without making a big-time throw, per PFF.

Raiola has finished with an adjusted completion rate below 67% in two straight games while throwing four interceptions and zero touchdowns. It won’t get any easier against an Ohio State defense that’s third in EPA per dropback.

While I expect the Buckeyes defense to do the vast majority of the work for this Under to hit, Nebraska will have to keep Ohio State contained to some degree. And I think the Cornhuskers will be capable.

Nebraska is seventh in SP+ on defense and allowing the 18th-fewest yards per game in the country (304.3). Matt Rhule’s team is only giving up 17.7 points per game this season, which ranks Top 20 nationally.

Ohio State will also be without left tackle Josh Simmons, a potential first-round pick. That will make it much harder for the Buckeyes to score at a high-clip against a defense that’s Top 30 in EPA per rush and dropback.

I’m expecting Ohio State to win 31-13, which would cash this Under.

Nebraska vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 48.5

Quinshon Judkins anytime TD

Will Howard Over 199.5 passing yards

+310 at BetMGM

Even though I’m backing the Under, I expect Quinshon Judkins to find the end zone. He's scored six touchdowns this season, including at least one in four of six games.

Judkins leads the team in touches (78), and rightfully so, with him racking up 235 yards after contact and forcing 20 missed tackles this season. That physical running style should come in handy in the red zone.

But he won’t be the only transfer thriving for Ohio State. Will Howard has been a steady hand under center, and he’s averaging 262.3 passing yards per game this season.

So clearing 199.5 should be easy for the senior. He’s thrown for at least 209 yards in all six games this season. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nebraska vs Ohio State odds

Nebraska vs Ohio State live odds

Nebraska vs Ohio State opening odds

• Nebraska vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -23.5
• Nebraska vs. Ohio State moneyline: Nebraska +1,500, Ohio State -5,000
• Nebraska vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 48.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Nebraska vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis

• Ohio State opened between a 23.5 and 24.5-point favorite with the line moving further in the Buckeyes direction to -25.5.
• The Cornhuskers are 4-2-1 ATS this season while Ohio State is 3-3.
• The Over/Under opened between 48.5 and 49 with the game total seeing minimal movement.
• The Buckeyes are 4-2 betting the Over this season, but Nebraska is just 2-5.

Nebraska vs Ohio State betting trend to know

 Will Howard has cleared 199.5 passing yards in every game this season. Find more college football betting trends for Nebraska vs Ohio State.

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