There’s a late-night game on the island for college football fans to look forward to in Week 9 as the 3-5 Nevada Wolf Pack face the 2-5 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors.
Read on to find out why my Nevada vs. Hawai'i predictions and college football picks expect a low-scoring affair on Saturday, October 26.
Nevada vs Hawai'i prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 44.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Nevada Wolf Pack have been surprisingly feisty under first-year head coach Jeff Choate, so there are some undeniable positives to take away from the start of his tenure in Reno.
The offense has been able to move the ball, ranking 42nd in EPA per play and 50th in success rate. That makes for a strength-on-strength matchup against a Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors defense checking in at 33rd in success rate and surrendering just 23.6 points per game.
One key aspect of this handicap is that Nevada quarterback Brendon Lewis left last week’s game against Fresno State with an undisclosed injury and his status is uncertain for this contest. If he can’t go, it’s unclear if either A.J. Bianco or Chubba Purdy would earn the start — although Choate said that both will split reps.
Offensive coordinator Matt Lubick’s status is also uncertain as he battles leukemia. All in all, Nevada’s offense may not be at full strength on Saturday.
The Wolf Pack prefer to keep the ball on the ground (18th in rush rate) and do so efficiently (22nd in EPA per rush), but that plays into the strength of the Hawai’i defense (33rd in rushing success rate, 20th in PFF’s rush defense grade).
On the flip side, Hawai’i operates the Run N’ Shoot offense, but Timmy Chang’s squad is averaging just 19.7 ppg. Top receiver Pofele Ashlock is also considered questionable after missing last week’s contest.
Hawai’i’s offense metrics (81st in EPA per play, 61st in success rate, 124th in explosiveness) may not look terrible, but two of its best offensive performances were against FCS teams. The Warriors have averaged more than 5.0 yards per play just once in five tries against FBS teams, and that came last week against Washington State when they still managed just 300 total yards and turned the ball over three times.
I’m betting on this game staying Under the total, and history favors this handicap — having cashed in 10 straight head-to-head matchups dating back to 2014.
Nevada vs Hawai'i same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 44.5
Hawai'i moneyline
It may be difficult to have faith in Hawai’i after a 2-5 start to the year, but I can’t trust Nevada given the uncertainty of the quarterback situation. Lewis is a huge part of the rushing attack, contributing 551 yards and five scores on the ground. The entire offensive outlook will be altered if he can’t go or is hobbled.
Purdy has played at two Power Conference schools (Florida State and Nebraska) but has completed just 52.9% of his 170 career pass attempts while tossing more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6). Bianco, a Maui native, completed just 54.9% of his 82 pass attempts a year ago while also throwing more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4).
Whoever is the signal caller for the Wolf Pack, it’s hard to feel fantastic about their outlook. Purdy has been dealing with a shoulder injury, and if the team keeps the ball on the ground more than usual, Hawai’i provides tough resistance as they have held all but two of their opponents (Sam Houston, Boise State) to 3.6 yards per rush or fewer. Considering that the combined record of those teams is 10-2 and one of them has the Heisman favorite in Ashton Jeanty, Hawai’i has a favorable outlook.
On the other side of things, we know that Hawai’i likes to throw the ball with Brayden Schager. The Warriors have the highest pass rate (67.4%) in the country, and Nevada's secondary ranks just 111th in passing success rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nevada vs Hawai'i odds
Nevada vs Hawai'i live odds
Nevada vs Hawai'i opening odds
- Nevada vs. Hawai'i spread: Hawai'i +2.5
- Nevada vs. Hawai'i moneyline: Nevada -135, Hawai'i +115
- Nevada vs. Hawai'i Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Nevada vs Hawai'i spread and Over/Under analysis
- Nevada has come away victorious in just two of its last 14 road games.
- The Wolfpack have lost six straight games against Mountain West opponents.
- Hawai’i is 1-6 O/U on the year and is 2-10 O/U in its last 12 going back to last season.
- Wind is usually a factor at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex and this week is no different as the forecast calls for 18-20 mph winds throughout the contest.
Nevada vs Hawai'i betting trend to know
Hawai’i has cashed the Under in seven straight home games. Find more college football betting trends for Nevada vs Hawai'i.
Nevada vs Hawai'i game info
| Location: | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 11:59 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBD |
Nevada vs Hawai'i latest injuries
Nevada vs Hawai'i weather
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