The San Diego State Aztecs look to steady the ship after suffering their first conference loss a week ago. Next up is a Week 11 home date with the New Mexico Lobos.
It’s a showcase game of sorts for two first-year head coaches looking to make their mark in the conference — Sean Lewis has a lot to prove after a strange year at Colorado in 2023, while Bronco Mendenhall was supposed to have a rebuilding project in front of him in Albuquerque after taking two years off.
Read my New Mexico vs. San Diego State predictions below to see who my college football picks for Saturday, November 9 are targeting.
New Mexico vs San Diego State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Jordan Napier Over 46.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The New Mexico Lobos have been one of my favorite teams to attack from a total perspective this season. The defense has been utterly terrible, whereas the offense has shown some verve, leading to plenty of shootouts and a 7-2 O/U record against the total.
Well, the books have finally caught on and Week 11’s total for a matchup with the San Diego State Aztecs is priced up at 66.5. There are expected to be points in bunches per usual with New Mexico, which has mostly been the case since surrendering 567 total yards on 7.2 yards per play to an FCS team (Montana State) to start the year and not slowing down from there.
The inflated total is enough for me to pass, but I still believe there’s value in the prop market when fading this defense. One that caught my eye is Aztecs redshirt freshman receiver Jordan Napier’s receiving yardage prop, which is set at 46.5.
The Fontana, CA product has been SDSU’s most productive receiver in the last four games, handling 27 targets while producing 20 receptions for 254 yards and two scores. That’s an average of 63.5 receiving yards — 17 yards higher than where his prop sits.
Ja’Shaun Poke has been a factor in the slot along with Napier, but Poke was knocked out of last week’s game and is considered questionable. Louis Brown IV was a factor earlier in the year but hasn’t made an impact in the second half. The door has opened for Napier, and he’s seized the opportunity, averaging 3.10 yards per route run while no other Aztec has topped 1.85.
The Lobos are truly dreadful on defense, ranking 129th in EPA per play and 130th in success rate while surrendering 40.8 ppg. The secondary has been particularly poor (132nd in EPA per pass, 130th in passing success rate), so SDSU’s offense should move the ball.
Napier has been his team’s most efficient receiving option by a sizable margin and should continue his ascent in a favorable matchup.
New Mexico vs San Diego State same-game parlay (SGP)
Jordan Napier Over 46.5 receiving yards
Danny O'Neil Over 223.5 passing yards
Marquez Cooper Over 105.5 rushing yards
Here’s an SGP that seeks to take advantage of the best angle in this game — attacking New Mexico’s leaky defense via the player prop market.
True freshman quarterback Danny O’Neil has experienced some ups and downs this year, but that’s to be expected for a first-year quarterback leading a rebuilding team. Still, there’s a lot to like about the former Colorado commit, and it certainly means something to be Sean Lewis’ chosen quarterback of the future. He's cleared 223.5 passing yards in three of his last five games.
The Aztecs play fast offensively, ranking 20th in my tempo metric, but haven’t always been efficient (108th in EPA per play). Pretty much any opposing offense has success against the Lobos, who have allowed eight of their nine opponents to average at least 6.0 yards per play.
A fast tempo combined with an efficiency bump should mean a solid day from SDSU’s skill players. The best of the bunch is star running back Marquez Cooper, who's racked up an eye-popping 4,698 career rushing yards to go along with 42 touchdowns. Cooper gets elite volume and should eat against a Lobos defense that ranks 129th in rushing success rate and 127th in PFF’s rush defense grade.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best New Mexico vs San Diego State bonus
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only. Also, see our full list of BetMGM bonus codes.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
New Mexico vs San Diego State odds
New Mexico vs San Diego State live odds
New Mexico vs San Diego State opening odds
- New Mexico vs. San Diego State spread: San Diego State -3
- New Mexico vs. San Diego State moneyline: New Mexico +125, San Diego State -150
- New Mexico vs. San Diego State Over/Under: 66.5
New Mexico vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis
- New Mexico has lost nine straight games against San Diego State, failing to cover the spread in four of the last five.
- San Diego State has covered the first-half spread in seven of its last 11 games.
- The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while the Lobos are 0-2 ATS in their last two.
- The Lobos have been dead set on the Over this season at 7-2 O/U.
New Mexico vs San Diego State betting trend to know
New Mexico is 4-1 O/U in away games this season. Find more college football betting trends for New Mexico vs San Diego State.
New Mexico vs San Diego State game info
| Location: | Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 11-8, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
New Mexico vs San Diego State latest injuries
New Mexico vs San Diego State weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
