Notre Dame has covered the spread in four straight games and in six of its last seven dating back to 2023 — a year the Fighting Irish went 10-3 against the spread.
But a lofty four-touchdown spread — or -28.5 depending on your sportsbook — may cause pause if thinking of backing the Irish against the Northern Illinois Huskies.
My Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame predictions touch on those concerns and explain why backing the favorite to cover the first-half line is the much safer way to go when making your college football picks for September 7.
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame prediction
My best bet
Notre Dame first half -17 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Northern Illinois should be a solid MAC team this season. But from what we saw of Notre Dame last week, no Group of Five team should be expected to keep up with ND in 2024. So then, any Huskies hopes are of an Irish letdown. And while that's possible, it's also something the very design of Notre Dame should prevent against — particularly against NIU.
The Irish's potent running game won them the Week 1 tilt at Texas A&M, with four explosive runs effectively defining that 23-13 victory. The Huskies are returning the bulk of their 2023 defense and have plenty of experience, but there was a reason opponents ran on them frequently last season.
Foes ran against Northern Illinois 8.7% more often than expected, the second-highest number in the country, because the Huskies had no answer in the trenches.
Notre Dame should enjoy the same success, and that's only when quarterback Riley Leonard doesn't try to build some chemistry with his receivers — something lacking last week. Connect on a few of those, and the Irish may blow open this game early.
NIU’s greatest problem is on the other side of the ball. The Huskies live by the run, rushing 6.5% more often than would usually be expected last season, a Top 25 rate.
That continued in Week 1, taking 40 rushes for 311 yards compared to just 29 pass attempts among three QBs. Northern Illinois will try to run against Notre Dame and fail miserably.
The Irish shouldn't need more than 20 points to take care of this first-half spread on Saturday, though a breakaway run or a connected deep pass could quickly spur Notre Dame to 28 points in the first half.
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Notre Dame half-time moneyline
Notre Dame full-time moneyline
Over 44.5 points
Northern Illinois team total Under 10.5 points
The offensive and defensive line play alone should assure Notre Dame complete control of this game. BetMGM doesn't allow including half-time spreads in a SGP, but leaning into the double-result moneyline underscores that driving thought all the same.
But the combination of a game Over and a Northern Illinois team total Under is an Irish specialty that cashed in four of Notre Dame’s last six games last season.
Once Notre Dame has a three-possession lead — if not before then — the Huskies will have no choice but to drop back and heave. That's not NIU's strength, and it'll allow the Irish to pressure QB Ethan Hampton and likely create a mistake or 20.
Those mistakes turn into either a defensive touchdown or a short field for Notre Dame’s offense. Either way, the scoreboard gets a boost while the Huskies come nowhere near the end zone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame odds
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame live odds
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Spread: Northern Illinois +29.5 (-105) | Notre Dame -29.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Northern Illinois +1,600 | Notre Dame -4,500
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- Notre Dame opened Sunday afternoon as a 29.5-point favorite, some books ticking to -30 before dropping to -28.5 and most books landing at -28.
- The Irish have covered the spread in four straight games and in six of their last seven. Last season, Notre Dame went 10-3 ATS.
- The total opened at 46.5 and slipped down to 44.5 by Tuesday evening.
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Northern Illinois has covered the first-half spread in just four of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame.
Northern Illinois vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC, Peacock |
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