A rivalry gets renewed earlier than usual when the No. 9 Oregon Ducks travel to Corvallis to face the Oregon State Beavers.
Much has been made of Oregon's lackluster start as they've tumbled down the AP Poll but our Oregon vs. Oregon State predictions think this could be the perfect get-right spot for the Ducks. See why I'm expecting a revival in my college football picks below.
Oregon vs Oregon State prediction
My best bet
Oregon -16.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks haven’t been perfect to start the year, narrowly topping Idaho (24-14) and Boise State (37-34). While the offensive line still needs to figure some things out, rumors of the Ducks’ demise have been greatly exaggerated.
This is still one of the most talented teams in the country. Lanning crushed the transfer portal to add to that talent and has Dillon Gabriel at his disposal, one of the most veteran quarterbacks in the country, whom nearly any other team would love to have under center.
There has been much consternation about the offense’s hesitancy to throw the ball downfield — Gabriel’s aDOT of 5.7 ranks just 134th among 142 qualified quarterbacks. I’m not as concerned for two reasons.
First, he ranks one spot behind Quinn Ewers in that metric, and folks do not share the same concerns with the Longhorns QB and have instead labeled him the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. Secondly, people voiced the same critique about Bo Nix a season ago, and he made a lot of people look silly by accumulating 4,508 passing yards and 45 touchdowns.
The offense is loaded with Jordan James leading a deep running back room and Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart providing one of the country’s top duos at wide receiver. The defense ranks 24th in success rate despite the subpar start. The Ducks still locked down Idaho other than a trick play and were run on by Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, but he’s a freak of nature and would embarrass most teams.
The game against the Broncos was very close, but it shouldn’t have been. The Ducks won the yards per play battle 6.2 to 5.1 but were -2 in turnovers.
On the flip side, the Oregon State Beavers have cruised to victories over Idaho State and San Diego State. I still need to see a lot more — both teams are soft opponents, and San Diego State would’ve tied the game 7-7 midway through the third quarter if its quarterback hadn’t fumbled the ball at the goal line.
The Beavers were hit as hard as any team in the country in the offseason, overturning their coaching staff and both sides of the ball while being left out for dry in the conference realignment money grab. A win would be a great “stick it to the man” moment, but they simply don’t have the horses.
Oregon vs Oregon State same-game parlay (SGP)
Oregon -15.5
Tez Johnson Over 89.5 receiving yards
Jordan James 70+ rushing yards
Tez Johnson transferred from Troy to Oregon a year ago and was a breakout star, racking up 86 catches for 1,182 yards and 10 scores while catching passes from his adopted brother. He picked up right where he left off in Week 1 with 12 receptions for 81 yards and two TDs against Idaho but regressed with -1 receiving yards in Week 2.
I’ll bet on Johnson bouncing back with a strong week considering he’s recorded 80+ receiving yards in six of his last eight games and this is not a difficult matchup against what is essentially a Group of Five team that lost nearly its entire defense from a season ago.
Jordan James was a man on fire as the RB2 behind Bucky Irving a season ago, ranking third in PFF’s rushing grade (93.9) among qualified backs while racking up 4.12 yards after contact per attempt. He’s in for a monster season and is averaging 98.5 rushing yards per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oregon vs Oregon State odds
Oregon vs Oregon State live odds
Oregon vs Oregon State opening odds
- Spread: Oregon -14 | Oregon State +14
- Moneyline: Oregon -600 | Oregon State +450
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Oregon vs Oregon State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oregon has dominated this matchup since 2008, winning 13 of the last 16 meetings. Oregon State has attempted to even the playing field lately by going 2-2 in the last four.
- Oregon State has been very rush-heavy on offense, keeping the ball on the ground 65.4% of the time. That game plan works against outclassed opponents, but it may be a bit less effective in a tougher matchup.
- Neither team has been playing with much tempo — Oregon ranks 78th in plays per minute (2.08) while Oregon State checks in at 116th (1.90).
- Despite the lowered tempo, it’s still surprising to see such a low total of 50.5. That’s six points lower than the total has been in any matchup across the last 10 years, with these teams combining for 65.7 points per game over that span.
Oregon vs Oregon State betting trend to know
Oregon is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games away from home. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Oregon State.
Oregon vs Oregon State game info
| Location: | Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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