College Football Week 6 Best Bets and Predictions: Ride the Wave of Service Academy Unders

Navy-Air Force Under 37

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

It’s only the first Service Academy game of the season, but the total has already been a wild ride.

Navy takes on Air Force at Falcon Stadium this weekend, and you probably already know by this point the Under is an incredible 44-9-1 in the last 54 meetings between Service Academy programs. But do bettors think this trend will be bucked in this matchup?

The total hit the board at 36.5 and early bettors promptly hit the Under, driving the number down to 34.5. As the week went along, money has started to come in on the Over, moving the total all the way up to 37, which is where it sits as of Thursday afternoon.

Now, my 10-minute rant on this week’s episode of College Football 134 breaks down why I liked the Under down to 34.5. So, I will gladly hop on the Under 37 for my bets bet column. 

Long story short, these teams still run the ball nearly 80% of the time, and no one knows how to defend the triple option offense better than another Service Academy. 

Yes, oddsmakers have baked this trend backed into this number, but I want to look at the last four seasons where we've seen the biggest change in these totals. The average total in the previous four seasons (12 games) has been 36.5, yet, the Over has only hit one time over that 12-game span back in 2022 when Army faced Navy.

The game was locked 10-10 after 60 minutes before an offensive outburst in overtime. The average combined points scored in those 12 games is 25.3 points, so it feels like sportsbooks can’t adjust these numbers enough.

Now, back to this line movement. This is happening because Navy’s offense has looked really good on the way to a perfect 4-0 start. Part of that is because it looks like the Midshipmen have their best quarterback since Malcolm Perry. 

They enter this matchup scoring an eye-popping 46 points and rank fourth in offensive success rate, but this won’t be the first time a Service Academy program has looked overmatched recently.

Air Force was a 14-point favorite in this matchup in 2022, a game the Falcons won 13-10. Last year Air Force was 10.5-point road chalk and won just 17-6.  Heck, it lost outright 23-3 to Army as 18.5-point faves last season too.

This matchup, in particular, has gone Under in three straight meetings with combined total points of 23, 23, and 16.

Yes, this trend will eventually start to die, particularly if Navy and Army have solid quarterback play the next couple of seasons. But at this number, I still see value in the Under.

Missouri moneyline

Best odds: +115 at BetMGM

The biggest game of Week 6 arguably takes place in front of the 12th Man at Kyle Field where the Texas A&M Aggies will play host to the undefeated Missouri Tigers as two-point home favorites.

The Aggies have rattled off four wins in a row following their season-opening loss to Notre Dame, but things aren't all sunshine and rainbows in College Station. 

Despite the winning streak, Texas A&M has some questions at QB. Starter Connor Weigman has been battling a shoulder injury he suffered against the Irish and it’s been backup Marcel Reed getting all the snaps over the last three games.

While A&M won all three games, Reed is a different QB than Weigman and does more damage with his legs. He's completing just 54% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt, which includes going 11-for-22 for 163 yards in last week’s 21-17 win against Arkansas.

And I can tell you, things might be a little tougher against Mizzou.

Before you jump at me and say Missouri has struggled in back-to-back games against Boston College and Vanderbilt, yes, that’s factual, but I also think both of those teams were undervalued heading into this season.

My thought here is the Tigers got a little slack with what appeared to be an easy schedule on paper with four straight home games, and the scare Vandy put in them will kick-start them heading into the tougher part of their schedule — starting this weekend.

Because make no mistake, despite some close contests with Brady Cook, Luthur Burden III, and this defense, the Tigers are a talented bunch playing well, and the numbers reflect that.

Missouri ranks 19th in EPA/play and 13th in offensive success rate. While the Aggies have been good enough defensively at this point, you can make the case they’ve underperformed, considering the talent on the roster. Texas A&M ranks 64th in opponent yards per play and 51st in defensive success rate.

Mizzou’s defense has been just as impressive, ranking 23rd in opponent EPA/play and fourth in success rate. 

More importantly, it'll know how to handle a game plan from the Aggies if it's still Reed under center after matchups with running QBs on both BC and Vandy. It doesn’t hurt the Tigers rank eighth in defensive success rate vs. the rush and 18th in EPA/rush.

Temple-UConn Over 49.5

Best odds: -110 at FanDuel

I hope the diehard college football sickos love this bet. This one’s for you.

Let’s give Jim Mora and the Connecticut Huskies their flowers. A few seasons ago, it wouldn’t have been crazy to worry about the future of this program, at least at the FBS level. The Huskies were the laughingstock of college football, and one-to-three-win seasons were the norm.

But UConn heads into a Week 6 matchup against the Temple Owls as a 17-point favorite with a 3-2 record straight up and 4-1 against the spread. On top of that, there are now rumors the school could be joining the Big 12. (Mostly for basketball, but hey, football is there too).

So, things are looking up for the Huskies, even if they have some issues at quarterback. Both starter Nick Evers and backup Joe Fagnano have seen time, and both have had injuries. Luckily, I don’t think it matters who is under center. 

Evers saw the majority of the action in a 48-14 beatdown of FAU, while Fagnano took over under center last week after Evers got hurt and led the Huskies to a 47-3 win over Buffalo.

The other reason UConn shouldn’t be worried is because it's playing Temple. The Owls are 1-4, and the numbers aren’t pretty, particularly on defense, where they rank 121st in opponent EPA/play and 118th in success rate.

They also rank 132nd in EPA/rush and 126th in yards per attempt, allowing 5.9 yards per carry. The Huskies' top two backs Durell Robinson and Cam Edwards, who both average at least 5.7 yards per rush, should both eat.

But let’s give Temple a little credit too. The Owls made a switch at QB three games ago, going to backup Evan Simon and since then, they haven’t looked like the absolute worst. Evans has thrown nine touchdowns to just two picks, helping the team put up a respectable 26.3 points per game and a 2-1 ATS record which includes an outright win against Utah State. 

Connecticut’s defense has been solid, but it’s by no means elite. If Temple gets to the 17-20 point range, this game should have no problem going Over the total.