College Football Best Bets and Picks Week 7: Wreck in Effect

Clemson -10.5 1H

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

I can admit when I’m wrong. 

I was not a believer in Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik at the start of the season and his Week 1 performance against Georgia did nothing but amplify that thought. 

Well, he’s pretty much told me to shove off since then. Klubnik has led Clemson to four consecutive blowout wins, and yes, sorry Florida State fans, when you only have seven points heading into the fourth quarter at home, that qualifies as a blowout.

Klubnik has thrown for 1,077 yards with 14 touchdowns to one interception while adding another 185 yards and four scores on the ground over those four wins, and most of those stats have come in the first half where the Tigers have outscored their opponents 141-34. That’s an average margin of 26.8 first-half points. 

And even though the Tigers were shut out in the first half of their opener against Georgia, they still rank third in first-half scoring at 28.2 points.

So, it definitely piqued my interest when I saw Clemson as a 10.5-point first-half favorite for this week’s game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Shockingly, it’s the Demon Deacons who enter this game in a bit of a letdown spot following their big 34-30 win as four-point road underdogs against North Carolina State. But big win aside, Wake Forest still falls in the category of “They Bad” when it comes to defense.

The Deacs enter this ACC matchup ranked 133rd in defensive success rate, and 134th (remember there are 134 FBS teams, which is also my shameless College Football 134 plug) in defensive success rate on dropbacks.

Klubnik and Clemson shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball early and often in this one. I’m backing them to build another solid first-half lead.

Georgia Tech -4

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

Right off the bat, I didn’t get this line when it opened at 5.5, which is what I took it at earlier in the week on the latest episode of College Football 134 (yes, another shameless plug). So, I really don’t get it now that it has moved to 4.

I am of course talking about this week’s matchup between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Why don’t I get it? Because North Carolina head coach Mack Brown looks like he already has one foot out the door to retirement and his team knows it. This means the effort level for the Tar Heels might not be what it was when the season began.

North Carolina enters this ACC clash losers of three in row, and the losses have been ugly. They include a loss to rival Duke where the Tar Heels held a 20-point lead in the third quarter, and a humiliating game against James Madison where they allowed the Dukes to score a stunning 70 points.

North Carolina is also 0-5-1 against the spread this season.

As much as this is a fade of North Carolina, I’ve got to give Georgia Tech some love here. The Yellow Jackets are really scrappy and are arguably better than their record. In fact, they’re a couple of plays going their way from being 6-0. 

Tech is led by exciting duel-threat QB Haynes King, who is completing 74% of his passes for 1,441 yards with eight touchdowns to just one pick while adding another 246 yards and four scores on the ground. 

As a result, the Yellow Jackets enter this game ranked 24th in offensive success rate and are going against a Tar Heels defense that ranks 93rd in opponent yards per play and 132nd in opponent yards per pass.

I won’t be shocked if Georgia Tech wins this by double-digits and wave bye to Mack Brown on the way.

Iowa State -3

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

The Big 12 conference appears to be a little chaotic as we head into Week 7.

Utah looked like far and away the class of the conference, but the Cam Rising injury saga has thrown a wrench into the Utes' plans and resulted in a loss last week to Arizona (although he is expected to return this week). 

Potential contenders like Kansas State and Oklahoma State have suffered bad losses, and Colorado keeps winning (barf). 

But maybe we have been overlooking one of the most consistent parts of the Big 12. That is Matt Campbell’s Iowa State Cyclones.

The Cyclones are 5-0 and have covered the spread in four straight games which includes a win over rival Iowa. They have solid quarterback play from Rocco Becht and as always, play solid defense. Overall, Iowa State ranks 20th in EPA/play on offense and ninth on EPA/play on defense.

Now, the Cyclones make a tough trip to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Morgantown is always a tough place to play and the Mountaineers have a veteran offense led by QB Garrett Greene.

The Mountaineers enter this game at 3-2 with losses coming to Penn State and rival Pitt. Not surprisingly, those were the two best defenses West Virginia has faced this year, and I would slot Iowa State in between those two.

While West Virginia has been competitive in pretty much every game outside of the matchup with the Nittany Lions, it has a clear weakness: stopping efficient passing attacks. The Mountaineers rank 106th in the country in EPA/dropback and 109th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.

Becht comes into this one with a career-high completion percentage of 1,173 with nine touchdowns and three interceptions, and is generally a sound decision-maker.

West Virginia isn’t bad, they just don’t match up well with Iowa State. Plus, even though Morgantown is a hostile environment, with the Cyclones already grabbing a win at Iowa this year, they’ll know what’s in store for them. Lay this short spread with Iowa State.