The Jackson State Tigers will host the Southern Jaguars in the Southwestern Athletic Conference championship game on Saturday, with the winner earning a bid in the Cricket Celebration Bowl.
The Tigers have been the class of the SWAC this season, and I expect them to cover in the conference championship, as I’ll break down in my Southern vs. Jackson State predictions.
Read on to see all my insights for the SWAC championship game in today's college football picks for this 2 p.m. kickoff on ESPN2.
Southern vs Jackson State prediction and best bet
Who will win Southern vs Jackson State?
We’ve already seen these teams face off once this year, and it resulted in a resounding victory for Jackson State. The Tigers dominated from the opening whistle, building a 23-0 lead, and won by a margin far greater than the 33-15 final score suggested.
Jackson State once again gets to host Southern on Saturday and should have far too much for the Jaguars to contend with. Jackson State should win this game and book its spot in the Celebration Bowl.
My best bet
Jackson State -13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Jackson State and Southern are meeting up in the SWAC title game for the second time in three years, with the winner set to play South Carolina State in the Celebration Bowl, which serves as an unofficial HBCU national championship. That means the stakes are high in this rematch for both sides — though only one should be going into this game expecting to win.
The first meeting between these teams this year was one-sided. Jackson State had three different players run for touchdowns while totaling 201 yards on the ground and seemed to be able to do anything they wanted on offense. The Tigers also found success when they had to throw the ball, with Jacobian Morgan going 12-for-21 and a touchdown before backup Cam’Ron McCoy got to play a bit.
Meanwhile, we saw little offensive production from Southern. The Jaguars threw two interceptions and managed just 29 yards on the ground, only racking up some decent passing yardage in the second half when the game was already well out of hand.
But the gap between these teams is about much more than this one game. Jackson State comes in on an eight-game winning streak, and only two of those games were decided by a single score. Their only losses this season game to the FBS Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and an upset defeat to the Grambling Tigers that came back in September.
Southern has had a solid 8-4 season, but three of those wins came in overtime. Four of the Jaguars’ conference wins have come by one score or less, suggesting they’ve overperformed to reach Saturday’s championship game.
This Jackson State team has 11 all-conference players on its roster — compared to just one for Southern — and is by far the more talented and capable team on all three phases of the game. I expect the Tigers to win this game by an even wider margin than in the one-sided regular season matchup.
Southern vs Jackson State same-game parlay (SGP)
Jackson State -13.5
Over 47.5
Along with taking Jackson State to cover, I’ll also add in a bet on the Over to complete my same-game parlay. The first game between these two went above the total, albeit by only a half point. However, Jackson State has played above this total in nine of its 12 games this year and should be able to put up big numbers on offense against Southern.
The Jaguars have also hit this total in five of their 12 contests, so they’re plenty capable of being dragged into a shootout, especially against superior teams.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Southern vs Jackson State odds
Southern vs Jackson State live odds
Southern vs Jackson State opening odds
- Southern vs. Jackson State spread: Jackson State -13.5
- Southern vs. Jackson State moneyline: Southern +400, Jackson State -550
- Southern vs. Jackson State Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Southern vs Jackson State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Jackson State is 7-4 against the spread this year, while Southern has put up a 6-5 ATS mark for bettors.
- The Tigers covered in the first matchup between these teams, winning 33-15 over the Jaguars as 10-point favorites.
- The Under is 7-4 when Southern plays this season, with the Over holding the 8-3 advantage when Jackson State has played.
- The Tigers are scoring 36.8 ppg this season, while the Jaguars are putting up just 22.1 ppg on offense.
Southern vs Jackson State betting trend to know
Jackson State has won its last five matchups straight up against Southern, winning each of the last four by 13+ points. Find more college football betting trends for Southern vs Jackson State.
Southern vs Jackson State game info
| Location: | Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium, Jackson, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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