The hype around the Tennessee Volunteers is growing with each passing week. And why not? The Vols are undefeated, and Nico Iamaleava looks like a legitimate Heisman contender.
But it’s the Vols defense that's making it OK to believe in that hype, and my Tennessee vs. Arkansas predictions break down why James Pearce & Co. will cook the Hogs.
Check out the college football picks for this SEC matchup on Saturday, October 5.
Tennessee vs Arkansas prediction
My best bet
Tennessee -13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers began the season blowing the doors off opposing teams, outscoring their first three opponents by a combined score of 191-13. That includes a 51-10 win over a North Carolina State team that wasn’t supposed to be that bad defensively.
Then, the Vols got their first real test of the season as they traveled to Stillwater to take on the Oklahoma Sooners. Tennessee was a 5.5-point favorite in that matchup and while Nico Iamaleava and the offense were solid, it was the defense that shone.
The Vols held the Sooners to a ridiculous 36 rushing yards on 34 attempts, while limiting them to 186 yards passing. It was so bad that they forced Brent Venables to make a change at quarterback.
So, Tennessee’s defense is legit. In fact, it ranks first in the country in defensive success rate and opponent yards per play. That’s a tough draw for an Arkansas Razorbacks offense that's looking pretty one-dimensional at the moment.
The Razorbacks enter this game at 2-2 with wins over UAB and Auburn and losses to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Quarterback Taylen Green leads them, but the Boise State transfer has struggled since the OT loss to the Pokes.
Green's completing just 49% of his passes and just 6.3 yards per attempt with more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (two) over the last three games. As a result, the Razorbacks rank 90th in offensive success rate on dropbacks and 87th in EPA/dropback.
If you can find an Arkansas team total Under 21.5 out there, I love that and would take it down to 20.5. Otherwise, Tennessee -13.5 looks like a solid bet when you also realize the Razorbacks rank 91st in defensive success rate on dropbacks. The Vols defense should cook. Nico should cook. Tennessee covers the spread without giving up many points in the process.
Tennessee vs Arkansas same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee -13.5
Arkansas Team Total Under 21.5
Taylen Green Under 199.5 Passing Yards
As noted previously, Arkansas to stay Under its team total is actually my favorite play in this matchup. The Hogs' offensive struggles and a terrible matchup correlate heavily with a Tennessee cover.
Additionally, we just saw Arkansas put up just 17 points against a solid Texas A&M defense. That number was also aided by a 75-yard touchdown early on, where Green was able to extend the play on broken coverage. After another first-quarter touchdown, the Razorbacks scored just three points in the remaining three quarters. The Vols have a better defense than the Aggies.
Speaking of that pass, it made up a huge chunk of Green’s production in that game, which he finished with 279 yards. He was also held to 151 yards and 161 yards in his two previous games. His accuracy issues and propensity to keep the ball underneath will limit his passing numbers vs. this Vols defense. Add Green Under 199.5 passing yards to this same-game parlay as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Arkansas odds
Tennessee vs Arkansas live odds
Tennessee vs Arkansas opening odds
- Tennessee vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas +13.5
- Tennessee vs. Arkansas moneyline: Tennesee -500, Arkansas +375
- Tennessee vs. Arkansas Over/Under: 61.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tennessee vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis
- Arkansas opened this SEC matchup as 13.5-point home underdogs, and while the line has yet to move off that number, it's juiced in Tennessee's direction, so don't be surprised when this line moves to 14 or higher.
- Arkansas hasn't covered the spread at home against an SEC opponent since a 42-27 win over Mississippi back on Nov. 19, 2022, when it was a one-point home dog.
- The total hit the board at 61.5 and early bettors have hammered the Under, with the number sitting at 57.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- Tennesse's defense is a big reason for this. The move is also why I avoided the full-game total, but there is still some value on Arkansas to stay below its team total instead.
Tennessee vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Tennessee has covered the spread in seven of its last 11 games dating back to last season for +2.60 Units and a 21% ROI, while Arkansas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Arkansas.
Tennessee vs Arkansas game info
| Location: | Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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