Texas A&M seeks to move one step closer to an SEC Championship spot when the Aggies travel to face the Auburn Tigers tonight.
With the Tigers being home underdogs for the first time all season, my Texas A&M vs. Auburn predictions expect the Aggies to put an end to their bowl hopes for good. Find out more in my free college football picks for Saturday, November 23.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, with the game airing on ESPN.
Texas A&M vs Auburn prediction and best bet
Who will win Texas A&M vs Auburn?
Auburn has the blueprint to beat Texas A&M, which South Carolina provided a few weeks ago—run the ball and stop the run. The Aggies have been susceptible to big plays on defense, and the Tigers rank Top 10 in rushing success rate and Top 20 in line yards gained.
Unfortunately, the Tigers are also prone to being hurt by defenses that generate Havoc, and they leave far too many points on the field once they reach the 20-yard line. This is in large part due to making just four of 11 FG attempts in conference play.
They also don’t generate Havoc on defense and rarely force turnovers—two things important to pull off the upset. Auburn is 0-3 this season in one-score games and has lost 14 straight games against ranked foes. The Tigers simply won’t make enough plays to make Mike Elko pay for his slip of the tongue in another close defeat.
My best bet
Pick: Texas A&M ML & Both to score 30 points - NO (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
I’m expecting points to be at a premium on Saturday night as these teams do battle under the lights. That said, I’m leery of the Auburn Tigers falling behind and giving up against a Texas A&M Aggies offense that has scored 33+ points in six of its last nine games. That’s why we’re taking the BetMGM combo play of an A&M victory with at least one team failing to reach 30 points.
South Carolina rammed the ball down the throat of the Aggie defense earlier this month, gaining nearly 300 rushing yards in the home victory. But Texas A&M also committed two turnovers and allowed another 244 yards and two touchdowns through the air as LaNorris Sellers had himself a day.
Having a game plan is one thing; being able to execute is something entirely different. Payton Thorne doesn’t present the rushing threat possessed by Sellers. He’s also faced two defenses of similar caliber to the one possessed by A&M, and against Kentucky and Georgia, he threw for a combined 372 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Even in the win against Kentucky, where the Tigers were able to run the ball consistently in the second half with ease, they only managed to score 24 points. It’s their highest point total of the SEC slate, as they’ve reached 20 points just one other time in a loss to Oklahoma.
Having a home-field advantage hasn’t helped the Tigers much, either. Granted, none of their losses to Oklahoma, Arkansas, Cal, and Vandy have come under the lights at Jordan-Hare Stadium, but I’m not sure that’s going to be the elixir to heal all that ails them.
This Texas A&M defense creates Havoc at an impressive rate, ranking fifth nationally. The Aggies rank 21st in defensive success rate, 16th in third-down success, 18th in distance to go on third down, and 32nd in EPA/rush. They’re also fourth in the conference in tackles for loss per game.
The other part of the game plan is the fact that South Carolina was able to slow down the Aggie ground game. They did so behind a defense that leads the SEC in tackles for loss in conference play, averaging nearly eight per contest. The team is dead last in that metric, with just 3.33 TFL per game? That’s right—the Auburn Tigers.
Texas A&M has the better defense of the two programs and, by far, the better offense. Auburn’s defensive unit will make things difficult for a while, but eventually will wear down as the offense keeps putting them back on the field. The Aggies like to pound the rock, control the clock, and play at one of the slower paces in the conference.
Add in the inability of Auburn to finish off red-zone trips with points, the minus-11 turnover margin on the season, and an abysmal kicking game, and the Tigers simply won’t score enough points to put pressure on A&M or pull off the upset.
Texas A&M vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas A&M ML
Auburn TT Under 24.4
Amari Daniels anytime touchdown
Marcell Reed 45+ rushing yards
BetMGM parlay options don’t offer our exact best bet, so we’re altering it a bit in our parlay and taking Auburn to score fewer than 24 points.
Amari Daniels has taken on the bulk of the rushing load for A&M since the season-ending knee injury to Le’Veon Moss, and he’s done so quite well. Only LSU has prevented him from reaching the endzone in his last five outings, and he’ll find paydirt against an Auburn defense ranked in the bottom half of the SEC in rushing touchdowns allowed.
Marcel Reed’s legs have taken this A&M offense to another level since he came in as quarterback. He’s been sacked only seven times in 172 dropbacks and isn’t afraid to take off, as he’s had eight scrambles for 30 yards over the past two games.
Against South Carolina, he scrambled five times for 48 yards and picked up another 21 yards on designed runs. Their three sacks kept his number lower, but he won’t have that issue against an Auburn defense with the fifth-fewest sacks in SEC play. I expect him to pick up at least 45 on the ground.
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Texas A&M vs Auburn odds
Texas A&M vs Auburn live odds
Texas A&M vs Auburn opening odds
- Texas A&M vs. Auburn spread: Auburn +2.5 (-110)
- Texas A&M vs. Auburn moneyline: Texas A&M (-125), Auburn (+105)
- Texas A&M vs. Auburn Over/Under: 46.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texas A&M vs Auburn spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread in favor of Texas A&M shifted slightly down to -1.5 on Saturday morning after sitting at -2.5 most of the week.
- The Aggies are just 3-7 ATS this season, but all three covers have come when favored by four or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 3-2 ATS in their last five and have covered just once in the last four meetings between these teams, as they won outright 13-10 two years ago.
- The total has come down a few points from open but also moved Saturday morning up a point to a total of 46.5 points. These two teams have gone Under in their last three meetings, while A&M has seen the Over go 8-1 in its last nine SEC games.
- 65% of Covers Consensus users are backing Texas A&M on the spread, while 60% are taking the Over.
Texas A&M vs Auburn betting trend to know
The Aggies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Auburn.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Auburn
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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