Texas A&M vs LSU Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Daniels Goes Out on High Note

It's a Jayden Daniels send-off when No. 14 LSU plays its final regular season game against Texas A&M. The quarterback will exit the Tigers' program among the most decorated pass-throwers in LSU history. He'll also have a robust Heisman odds case after it's over.

Conversely, A&M adjusts to life without head coach Jimbo Fisher. The head man's five-year tenure ended after he was let go two weeks ago. The firing surprised some, especially considering Texas A&M was coming off a blowout win against Mississippi State. Since then, the Aggies have played one game against non-FBS opponent Abilene Christian. 

What's the best bet in the college football odds in this matchup? Find out in our free college football picks for Saturday, November 25.

Texas A&M vs LSU best odds

Texas A&M vs LSU picks and predictions

The best bet on this game is Jayden Daniels to earn the Heisman Trophy. 

It currently sits at around -110 to +100, depending on the book, and has seen unprecedented steam over the last couple of weeks. If Daniels performs well and LSU wins, then the debates will begin. He'll have one of the best statistical seasons ever from a dual-threat quarterback, but the three losses will weigh heavily. Those debates can wait, but we will use that knowledge to attack our actual best bet for this game, which is Jayden Daniels Over 320.5 passing yards.

Some of the handicap here is built on gameflow. Like it has for most of the season, LSU will have to continue passing the ball to win this game. Its defense has been Swiss cheese — and if it weren't, we'd be talking about this team being in the playoff discussion. It's ranked well below average in EPA against the pass and slightly better against the rush. It'll enter this game ranking 110th in FBS in success rate against the pass, which tells the story of its season.

Daniels is an incredible talent, but he's partly put up the massive numbers he has because he's been forced into chasing the game. I expect LSU to be chasing the game once again, or at least be put in enough compromising positions to where they have to throw the ball. The numbers that A&M has put up this season against the pass are intimidating, but if you look deeper, a different story is painted. 

On the season, the Aggies rank a very respectful 39th in EPA against the pass and an even more impressive 18th in success rate. However, Texas A&M has seen its average yards per pass jump from 5.2 yards per attempt to 8.8 when facing winning teams. And Texas A&M has seen its yards per game number go from 174 to 254 against ranked teams. This team's defensive numbers are overly inflated by the bad teams it's faced on its schedule, and the numbers tell that story about as well as they possibly can.

I don't need to give Daniels much of an introduction. He's in the midst of a historic season, and if you forget what he's done on the ground, the Tigers have the No. 1 passing offense by many significant metrics, including EPA. Consider how he leads the country in passing with 11.8 yards per attempt and 38 touchdowns. Or how he leads the nation in total yards, surpassing the next closest competitor by a whopping 816 yards.

This is a unique spot. LSU is facing a defense closer to average than the metrics say, and they have a quarterback chasing destiny. Daniels will want to leave a resounding message for Heisman voters, as this will undoubtedly be his last chance to impress. With that in mind, this number has been inflated. However, it needs to be higher. Daniels has surpassed this number in two consecutive games heading into this one. With all of the outside influence (plus the matchup), there's no reason to think he won't make it a third straight.

My best bet: Jayden Daniels Over 320.5 passing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Texas A&M vs LSU same-game parlay

Jayden Daniels Over 320.5 passing yards

Malik Nabers 125+ rushing yards

+184 at FanDuel

We won't win any value awards here, but this certainly makes sense. We're paring our best bet with a receiving prop on one of the best in the nation.

Malik Nabers needs 133 receiving yards to become the leading all-time receiver in LSU history by yards. I've leaned into the narrative of Daniels needing to add one more significant number to impressive Heisman voters. Why would I stop now? Nabers is the best or second-best receiver in the country and has a great matchup here. Expect him to leave the Tigers on a high note — just like his quarterback.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas A&M vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis

It's a comfortable assertion that LSU will take care of business here. 

A&M has turned more of its attention to the coaching search rather than the regular season. LSU is looking to get its ninth win, improve its bowl position, and do whatever it can to aid Daniels' Heisman campaign. The question becomes what the final score will be for the Tigers.

I don't have much of an opinion on the spread. It was perfectly in line with my projection. A&M will eventually find a spot where the drives stall out — no matter how bad LSU's defense is. When that happens, the Tigers will continue to hum.

Regarding the total, I certainly like the Over, but I don't want to rely on much from A&M here. I would almost entirely focus my handicap on LSU.

There are too many unknowns with the Aggies, from gameplan to quarterback play and how its mental approach will be in this game. The Tigers will stay the same about its season as it's essentially been relegated to playing for nothing but pride. With that said, the Tigers have been on a sensational Over run. Before its last game against Georgia State, LSU had seen nine straight games go Over the total by an average margin of 7.2 points. 

Texas A&M vs LSU betting trend to know

LSU has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of its last 14 games (+11.90 Units / 77% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs LSU.

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