In the biggest game of Week 2, two top 10 teams square off as the defending champion Michigan Wolverines host the Texas Longhorns at Michigan Stadium.
In our Texas vs. Michigan predictions, we’re expecting the Longhorns to take advantage of the struggling Wolverines. Read more in our college football picks below.
Texas vs Michigan predictions
Early spread lean
Texas -7 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Both these teams reached the College Football Playoff last season, but a lot has changed since then.
Texas is now a member of the SEC and Michigan lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, and several of its most important players, to the NFL.
While overreacting to one early game can usually be trouble, Michigan looked like a completely different team in Week 1. The score in its 30-10 win over Fresno State is slightly misleading.
The Wolverines were up just 16-10 in the fourth quarter before new starting QB Davis Warren finally put together a strong drive. That was followed up by an 86-yard pick-six on a perfectly read screen by All-American cornerback Will Johnson.
It’s clear that Michigan has an issue under center. Warren was unimpressive — going 15-for-25 for just 118 yards and a pick — and Alex Orji was used purely as a wildcat option.
If not for kicker Dominic Zvada turning in an all-time performance - he hit kicks of 45, 53, and 55 yards - this game would have been a whole lot closer.
That type of play isn’t going to fly against a Texas team with championship aspirations. The Longhorns held Colorado State to just 192 yards in Week 1 and their secondary, led by Jahdae Barron, looks like one of the best in the country.
It’s hard to imagine Warren and Orji doing much against Texas, and Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards was ineffective against the Bulldogs last week. Running into the Longhorns' front seven is going to be much harder.
And for as good as Michigan’s defense is, stopping Quinn Ewers and all his new toys for four quarters is a tough ask when your offense is doing you no favors.
Outside of an ugly interception early, Ewers was nearly flawless last week. With Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Ryan Wingo, he should be able to score enough to cover against Michigan.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This might seem like a low total to bet the Under on, but keep in mind Michigan’s offense only put up 23 points against Fresno State last week.
And it’s not as if Texas doesn’t have a top-notch defense. While it did lose some key pieces from last year’s team, Steve Sarkisian has recruited well and has the cupboards stocked with future NFL players.
The Longhorns were 11th in SP+ on defense last year and there won’t be much fall off this season. So if the Wolverines could only put up 269 total yards while averaging 4.5 yards per pass attempt against Fresno State, how are they going to consistently move the ball against Texas?
Meanwhile, Texas isn’t going to be able to light up the scoreboard enough to hit the Over with how loaded Michigan’s defense is this season.
The Wolverines have the best cornerback in the country in Johnson and two potential first-round picks at defensive tackle in Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.
The interior D-line duo is poised to shut down Texas’ run game, especially with the Longhorns missing CJ Baxter — he was supposed to be the starter this season but tore his ACL a few weeks ago.
That should allow Michigan to keep the box light in an effort to stop Ewers and the passing attack enough for the Under to hit. Texas was 8-6 betting the Under last season.
Texas vs Michigan live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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