Rivalry games are meant to be close. Red River is no different. Yet, the Texas Longhorns are two-touchdown favorites this weekend, with the Oklahoma Sooners seemingly undone by a lack of consistent offense.
The hook on that spread, -14.5, can scare off a bettor. Will Oklahoma mount a late drive to grab the backdoor cover? There can be found value even in a wonder like that, as these Texas vs Oklahoma player props and free college football picks dive into this SEC showdown set for 3:30 ET on Saturday, October 12.
For more Red River coverage, check out Andrew Caley's Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions!
Texas vs Oklahoma props for Week 7
- Michael Hawkins Jr. anytime touchdown (+210 at BetMGM)
- Michael Hawkins Jr. Under 172.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Isaiah Bond Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 10-12.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Texas vs Oklahoma college football player props
Prop bet #1: Michael Hawkins Jr. anytime touchdown
If Oklahoma is playing Texas close, that almost certainly ties to freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. dazzling in his second career start. At the least, he will not be playing badly. If Oklahoma is getting blown out, then Hawkins getting desperate could be the marker for a late touchdown to snag that backdoor cover. In either game state, Hawkins is ripe to score.
In his first start, Hawkins took 12 carries for 76 yards and a tally (sacks adjusted). He is a dynamic enough quarterback to demand attention on the ground, and that can catch a defense off-guard when there is only one game of tape to watch. Or, if in the less competitive game state, it can catch a defense off-guard when their attention wanes during a blowout.
Oklahoma quarterbacks — be it Jackson Arnold or Hawkins since the switch was made behind center — have been pressured on 24.0% of their snaps this season, but they have not been as doomed by those moments as most teams would be. By no means have those moments been successes, but they have not been as crippling as would usually be expected.
It may be in escaping Longhorns’ pressure that Hawkins redeems this bet. How he finds the end zone will not matter, only that he does.
Prop bet #2: Michael Hawkins Jr. Under 172.5 passing yards
It is not Hawkins’s fault he has no receivers to throw to, but he effectively has no receivers to throw to. Without Deion Burks available, the Sooners’ passing attack takes a significant step backward.
The Purdue transfer was supposed to help elevate Oklahoma’s offense, and in his four games, he has caught 26 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns. Quickly extrapolate that across a full season, and it would be 78 catches for 603 yards and nine scores. That is not necessarily eye-popping, but it would be a solid contribution.
Without him, Texas should not have to worry about double-covering any Sooners receivers, more quality contributors injured than available.
Even if Oklahoma had a healthy receiver corps, there is a reason opponents revert to rushing against the Longhorns 11.5% more often than the average team would be expected to in a given game state. Texas’s pass defense ranks No. 3 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against and No. 8 in dropback success rate against.
If the Sooners want to slowly move toward a score, they are more likely to do it via running the ball, true both on their season thus far and against this particular Longhorns’ defense.
Prop bet #3: Isaiah Bond Over 62.5 receiving yards
The junior Alabama transfer has cleared this receiving prop in each of his last three games, despite managing only two catches a few weeks ago against Louisiana-Monroe and despite not having Quinn Ewers throwing passes in the last two games.
The worry here would be that Oklahoma’s defense is stout enough to slow down Texas in all regards. But if this game is competitive, then the Longhorns’ will be only more inclined to keep looking at their best downfield playmaker.
Don't need many more clips than this to show Texas' WR Isaiah Bond, who has been as good as advertised. Maybe better. He's likely the best player on the field between the two teams. Oklahoma will try and take away as much as they can but Bond will get his. pic.twitter.com/PcXJfYboQ8
— Kegan Reneau (@KeganReneau) October 11, 2024
Furthermore, the Sooners’ defense is a bit more exploitable against the pass than against the run.
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