Troy hopes to get its first win over an FBS team this season when it faces South Alabama in The Battle for the Belt on Tuesday night.
The Trojans are 1-5 with only a win over Florida A&M to their name, and they’re hoping two weeks of rest will be enough for their starting quarterback to return. The Jaguars aren’t doing much better at 2-4 but have played a tougher schedule and were unfortunate to lose to Arkansas State last time out.
Find out who we’re backing to hit paydirt in our Troy vs. South Alabama predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, October 15.
Troy vs South Alabama prediction and best bet
My best bet
Da'Marion Bothwell anytime touchdown (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The South Alabama Jaguars will win this game on the back of their rushing attack, and the Troy Trojans will be trying to stop three different players. When Gio Lopez isn’t throwing the ball, he’s either scrambling with his legs or handing it off to running backs Da'Marion 'Fluff' Bothwell and Kentrel Bullock.
And unlike most teams, there’s no designated bell cow. Bothwell is the starter on the depth chart, but his 55 carries are only slightly ahead of the 52 Bullock's racked up this season.
That said, Bothwell has scored six touchdowns against just three for Bullock, and he’s very likely to add to that total tonight. Not that it’ll be hard, given how most backs have torn up the Trojans.
Memphis running back Mario Anderson scored twice in his team’s win over Troy, as both he and teammate Greg Desrosiers ran for 59+ yards on the day. Kaleb Johnson also found the endzone twice, running for 173 yards in Iowa’s win. His backup, Jaziun Patterson, also had a strong day, with 72 yards and a score on eight carries.
I’m expecting both of South Alabama’s running backs to have solid games, as the two tend to split carries fairly evenly, but Bothwell has the majority of his team’s red zone carries, and three of the four touchdowns he’s scored against FBS opponents have come from inside the 15-yard line.
Bothwell is a punishing runner, a 5-foot-10 back with a 219-pound frame who loves to run over defenders. Troy’s run defense is allowing 5.6 yards per carry in large part because of missed tackles. The Trojans have already missed 55 of them this season, which is why they rank 98th in early down EPA/play and 114th in third-down success.
Troy’s defense isn’t much better than the Appalachian State unit that Bothwell punished. The Mountaineers struggled to bring Bothwell down, as he notched 75 yards after contact. He also had a breakaway rate of better than 50%, picked up five first downs, and found the end zone twice.
I expect a similar performance against Troy. He struggled in South Alabama’s last two games against LSU and Arkansas State, but he’s had nearly two weeks to rest up and get healthy.
The odds of -110 at Caesars present tremendous value as an outlier, so I’d capitalize on it quickly. This same play is priced at -150 at FanDuel and as high as -225 at bet365, and I’m expecting it to move fast. I would play this at -130 or longer.
Troy vs South Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Da'Marion Bothwell anytime touchdown
Gio Lopez 40+ rushing yards
South Alabama -16.5
Gio Lopez will be facing a Troy defense that's below-average against the pass and rarely sacks the quarterback, but it’s also prone to giving up big days to dual-threat quarterbacks.
Texas State quarterback Jordan McCloud ran for 72 yards on seven carries when his team beat the Trojans, and Lopez ran for 105 yards and a score against App State. This is an attainable floor for him.
Troy has played five FBS schools this season, and the Trojans have lost all five games by an average margin of 13 points. Memphis, Iowa, and Texas State all won by at least 17, and I think South Alabama adds to that list.
The Jaguars have an offense capable of controlling the clock, winning the battle in the trenches, and racking up points the Trojans won’t be able to match. I expect them to not only cover the spread but win by three scores behind the Sun Belt’s top rushing attack.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Troy vs South Alabama odds
Troy vs South Alabama live odds
Troy vs South Alabama opening odds
- Troy vs. South Alabama spread: South Alabama -11.5
- Troy vs. South Alabama moneyline: Troy +400, South Alabama -550
- Troy vs. South Alabama Over/Under: 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Troy vs South Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Jaguars are 13.5-point favorites, with the spread moving from -11.5 on Sunday. Both teams are 2-4 ATS this season.
- Troy has won the last six meetings between these rivals and has covered the spread each time, but this Trojan team isn’t the same team we saw under Jon Sumrall last season, and they rank in the bottom half of FBS in nearly every major category. South Alabama’s offense will cover in a game that should resemble its 48-14 win over App State.
- Since opening at 56.5, the total has come down by two points. That makes sense, given the Under is 4-2 in Troy’s games and 3-2 with a push in South Alabama’s six contests. The last five meetings have also seen the Under go 4-1.
- This is a tricky number, but I lean Over here — even more of a lean if Goose Crowder can't go at quarterback for Troy. I think the Jaguars put up enough points to drive the total up, but Tucker Kilcrease is a downgrade from Crowder, and Troy’s passing output may not be good enough with him taking snaps.
Troy vs South Alabama betting trend to know
Troy has stayed Under the first-quarter total in 12 of their last 14 games for +9.53 units and a 56% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Troy vs South Alabama.
Troy vs South Alabama game info
| Location: | Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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