NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Downward Spiral

South Carolina moneyline

Best odds: +125 at bet365

The Clemson Tigers have benefitted from a favorable ACC schedule this season, having avoided five of the six teams with a winning record in conference play. The one outlier was Louisville — and the Cardinals rolled into Death Valley and walked away with a 12-point victory. 

In fact, Clemson’s best win was a four-point victory over a Pitt team playing with a backup quarterback. And that came in a game where the Panthers committed 13 penalties, including three that denied them a touchdown on third-and-goal from the one-yard line. And even then, the Tigers needed a 50-yard touchdown run from Cade Klubnik in the final minutes of the game to get the win.  

Not only have South Carolina Gamecocks played a tougher schedule, but they have posted multiple wins that surpass anything the Tigers have achieved this season. Shane Beamer’s squad went to Kentucky and won as 9.5-point dogs and recently upset Texas A&M by 24 points. That’s not counting a two-point loss at Alabama, a team favored by 21 points.

South Carolina’s defense ranks eighth in EPA/pass, 10th in pass defensive success rate, and 12th in third down success. The Gamecocks also have the third-highest sack rate in the country, and have the third-best pass rush grade according to PFF.

That’s bad news for Klubnik. He’s completing just 44.8% of his throws this season when pressured, and this South Carolina defense can ball hawk with a Top 15 interception rate to its credit. He’s also working behind an offensive line that is banged up, and has had to shift multiple starters around the past two games.

South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers has been improving every week, and he has performed well on the road. He wasn’t fazed by the environment at Alabama, and he won’t have a problem with Death Valley. 

Clemson’s defense is ranked 99th in EPA/rush. It’s also allowing the third-most explosive plays of any team in the ACC, and the fourth-most yards per carry. Sellers and running back Raheim Sanders will rack up yards on the ground, like they did against Texas A&M, and get an upset win that gives them a shot at sneaking into the playoff.   

UTSA moneyline

Best odds: +220 at BetMGM

The Army Black Knights’ loss to Notre Dame last week saw their defense get dismantled. The Fighting Irish ran for nearly 10 yards per carry en route to a 275-yard rushing performance, while Riley Leonard threw for 148 yards on just 13 attempts.

The Black Knights have posted some impressive per-game defensive stats this season on the back of playing some sub-par offenses as well as having the highest time of possession of any team in college football. But their opponent this Saturday likes to have the ball just as much.

The UTSA Roadrunners rank 20th in TOP, and they do work when they have it. They are posting 450.9 yards of offense per game, eighth-most nationally, and have scored 44+ points in four straight games. 

Their offense can move the ball through the air and on the ground. UTSA ranks second in AAC play with almost 320 passing yards per contest, and sixth in rushing at just over 180 yards per game. That’s bad news for an Army defense ranked 99th in opponent rush success and 98th in EPA/run. 

The Roadrunners haven’t posted the best defensive numbers this year, but that’s mostly been because of their suspect pass defense. Unfortunately for Army, the Roadrunners rank second nationally in rush defense success rate. They’re also Top 10 in third down defense and EPA/rush, and 27th in average third down distance. 

UTSA is also thriving in conference play at making stops in the backfield. They lead the AAC with 9.86 tackles for loss per game, despite facing the fourth-fewest rushing attempts of any team in the conference. And they got a taste of the Army triple option last season in a 37-29 loss to the Black Knights, where they held them under four yards per carry.

Army has played only one team in the top half of the AAC standings this season. Meanwhile, UTSA took down a Memphis team a few weeks ago, a team that finished the season with a 10-2 record after beating Tulane on Thursday night. 

Army has thrown the ball just 52 times in AAC play, and doesn’t have the passing game to take advantage of UTSA’s defensive flaws. My college football picks believe the Roadrunners will get enough stops on defense and wear down Army’s front seven as they get the victory on the road. 

Kansas State moneyline

Best odds: +115 at bet365

After starting the season 7-0, the Iowa State Cyclones hit a bit of a skid. The Cyclones lost by a point to Texas Tech, and then got taken down by Kansas in a nine-point defeat. 

But the signs of issues were there in the seventh win, when they narrowly edged UCF by three points. The first major issue was a run defense that looked more like Swiss cheese than a playoff contender, as the Knights gained 354 yards at 9.1 yards per carry against the Cyclone’s 3-3-5 defense.

When your defense ranks 101st in rush success against, teams take notice. Texas Tech saw the blueprint, and Tahj Brooks ran for 122 yards on 25 carries. Then Kansas took the formula and improved it, as Devin Neal and company ran for 237 yards. 

And while Utah wasn’t able to find any success on the ground last week, the Utes — who have just one win in Big 12 play — were 95 seconds away from upsetting the Cyclones a week ago after mounting a fourth-quarter comeback. 

That game highlighted the second big issue, which is the regression of quarterback Rocco Becht. He’s had only three games this season where he’s completed less than 60% of his throws, and they’ve all come in the last five games. That includes a 20 of 38 showing last week.

In his defense, he compensated a bit by gaining 72% of his season rushing total in those three games. But this weekend he faces a Kansas State Wildcats team that ranks ninth in EPA/rush, and will force him to make plays through the air. And the Wildcats also rank fourth in Big 12 play at preventing third down conversions, which won’t make things any easier.

As for the other side of the ball, Kansas State will find success on the ground themselves. The Wildcats rank 24th in EPA/rush and 28th in rush success, and are gaining over 200 yards per game in conference play. The only teams rushing for more? You guessed it — UCF and Kansas. 

Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens combined for 215 yards last week against Cincinnati in a blowout win, and Kansas State will rip off chunk plays behind a rushing attack averaging better than six yards per carry as they win as slight underdogs.