Two weeks of college football are in the books, and last week was chock-full of upsets — especially for teams from the Sun Belt. Nebraska is heading into their game with a new head coach, as they fell to Georgia Southern, as we predicted was a strong possibility last week. Now we look ahead to Week 3, and there are numerous games that could see a repeat of last week’s chaos.
While there are many more that we could provide as likely upsets this week, we’ve narrowed the list down to just three. Here are the games we feel have the best potential for a strong underdog performance in our college football upset picks for Week 3.
College football upset picks for Week 3
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas Tech (+300) at #16 NC State
NC State is coming off a 55-3 win last week over Charleston Southern, but it’s more about what they did in the opening week that has me all over their matchup with Texas Tech. The Wolfpack did everything possible to give away their opener against ECU aside from scoring points for the other team, and they were extremely fortunate that they escaped going to overtime with a missed PAT at the end of the game.
Devin Leary completed just 17 of 33 attempts against ECU, and the Wolfpack managed just 344 yards of total offense. That’s concerning for a few reasons. First, the Pirates allowed nearly 300 yards last week to an Old Dominion squad that doesn’t have the weapons NC State does. They’re also going up against a Texas Tech defense that is allowing just 306 yards of total offense per game, and held Houston to just three yards per carry on 29 attempts last weekend.
The Red Raiders are rolling along on offense, scoring 96 points in their first two games and posting more than 535 yards of total offense per contest. NC State has allowed just 190.5 yards passing per game through the first two — but they’ve also faced the fifth-fewest passing attempts in the country. That number will skyrocket with Donovan Smith slinging the ball, having already attempted 74 passes this season and completing 50 for nearly 600 yards and six scores.
Texas Tech has lost their last two games at NC State by a combined 63 points, but I don’t see that kind of scenario happening on Saturday. Look for the Red Raiders to go well past 300 yards passing in this one and put real pressure on the Wolfpack. Not only will Texas Tech cover the spread, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them head home with the win as Joey Maguire becomes just the fourth coach in school history to start his career with three wins.
PICK: Texas Tech +10.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
#11 Michigan State (+145) at Washington
It’s rare to see a Top-15 team face off against an unranked team and still be the underdog, yet that’s what we have on Saturday when the Spartans travel to the Pacific northwest to face Washington. The Huskies opened as just a one-point favorite, but the line has continued to shift in their favor as they’re now picked to win by at least a field goal.
Washington’s offense has been quite impressive this season, posting more than 1,140 yards over its first two games against Kent State and Portland State. That said, neither of those teams really instills fear. The Golden Flashes had the nation’s fourth-worst pass defense last season, allowing nearly 345 yards per contest — the exact amount of yardage Michael Penix was able to post in their opening game.
Michigan State will pose a much tougher ask of the former Indiana signal caller. Penix has had success against the Spartans, leading Indiana to a 24-0 upset win on the road in 2020 as he threw for 320 yards. He’s thrown for nearly 600 yards and five touchdowns in two meetings with his former conference opponents.
But it’s not so much Michigan State slowing down Penix and company that has me leaning towards an upset, but rather the Washington defense. Kent State was dominated last weekend at Oklahoma, who allowed just a field goal and held the Golden Flashes to only 295 yards of offense. The Huskies allowed 340 yards of offense, but also gave up 20 points in the process.
Michigan State dominated Akron 52-0 last weekend, as they ran for 260 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns on the ground. While quarterback Payton Thorne has struggled with accuracy this season, they will be happy to face a Washington defense that, despite the lowly opposition, has allowed 3.26 yards per carry, ranking them 48th in the country.
Washington has allowed just one rushing touchdown this season, but that’s in large part due to jumping out in front early and making their opponents one-dimensional. But Michigan State’s defense has yet to allow a passing touchdown, and will pose a much tougher test than anything Penix has seen thus far in 2022. Look for him to spend long periods of time on the sideline as the Spartans ride their run game to victory.
PICK: Michigan State moneyline (+145 at bet365)
Western Kentucky (+210) at Indiana
I’ve been looking at this matchup for a few days, and I’m still not entirely sure why the Hoosiers are favored against the Hilltoppers. That’s not to say that Indiana isn’t a solid team. But they’re not running the ball that well, ranked 89th in the country in yards per game and 67th in yards per carry.
They’re also not passing it that impressively, either. Indiana is averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, one of the lowest marks in the country. It also needed a second-half rally to defeat FCS foe Idaho last weekend, scoring 23 points in the third quarter after being scoreless at halftime.
While it’s not the offensive wrecking ball from a season ago, Western’s done a terrific job retooling the offense around Division II transfer Austin Reed. They rank 44th in the nation at 8.5 yards per attempt through the air, and their team QB rating of 165.7 is 27th-highest in the nation. Indiana’s pass defense is allowing 7.4 yards per attempt, which ranks in the bottom third of the country, and their QB rating against ranks 99th in FBS.
What Indiana is doing well so far this season is not committing penalties. They’ve conceded the 18th-fewest penalty yards this season, where the Hilltoppers have committed among the most in the country. But where Western struggles there, they make up for it with their defensive intensity. Albeit against Hawaii and Austin Peay, the Hilltoppers lead the nation with 10 forced turnovers, and also pace college football with seven picks.
Indiana is struggling with a mounting injury list heading into this contest, and they simply don’t match up that well. They aren’t a team that is built to keep Western’s offense off the field, and I don’t trust Connor Bazelak in a shootout — especially given the lack of depth in the Hoosier receiving corps. Indiana narrowly edged the Hilltoppers last year with Penix taking the snaps, and Bazelak is a downgrade.
After allowing Idaho to gain nearly nine yards per pass attempt a week ago, Reed will have a field day against this secondary. Indiana’s not going to find some miracle second-half turnaround in this one, as Western gets out in front and closes out the road upset.
PICK: Western Kentucky moneyline (+210 at BetMGM)
Last week: 1-2, -1.0 units
Season: 1-5, -4.0 units
