NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Eagles Wreak Havoc vs RedHawks

Eastern Michigan

Best odds: +115 at BetMGM

People looking at the records of these two teams might be wondering just how the Miami RedHawks are favored, given they are 1-4 while the Eastern Michigan Eagles are 4-1. But the RedHawks have faced Notre Dame, Northwestern, and Cincinnati already this season while the toughest opponent the Eagles have taken on was Washington.

That said, both teams played UMass. EMU went on the road in the opening week and won by two touchdowns, while Miami needed overtime to beat them at home. It’s one of the reasons I believe the wrong team is favored here.

Miami has lost all three road games this season, in large part because it can’t run the ball with any efficiency. The RedHawks are averaging just three yards a carry, a big reason they rely on their passing game.

The problem with that is they’ve not had a ton of success there either. Brett Gabbert is completing just half of his throws, a key reason why Miami ranks 97th in EPA/dropback and 130th in points per play.

To make matters worse, Miami could be without two starting offensive linemen this weekend. With Eastern Michigan getting to the quarterback with the 32nd best sack rate in college football, that’s probably not optimal for a line already allowing their quarterback to get hit often.

Eastern Michigan ranks 21st in time of possession and 14th in rushing attempts per game, and Miami has allowed at least 4.2 ypc to every starting back it has faced this season. The Eagles will pound the rock, control the clock, and get the home victory. 

LSU

Best odds: +140 at BetMGM

There are few things in college football more intimidating for a visiting team than going into Death Valley at night. The LSU Tigers are 108-15 in program history at home under the lights, with Brian Kelly having won all 12 of such contests in his time in Baton Rouge.

For a Mississippi Rebels team that is dealing with injury concerns, it’s a tough spot to be in. Leading receiver Tre Harris left the South Carolina game and is questionable for this weekend. His absence would be a big blow for an offense looking to take advantage of a suspect LSU secondary.

But it’s the other side of the ball where LSU should find success. Mississippi has been fortunate this season to face teams with lackluster quarterback play, with most of its opponents ranked in the bottom half of EPA/dropback. But in their loss to Kentucky, the Rebels allowed Brock Vandagriff to throw for 243 yards — eye-opening given he’d thrown for just 550 in total over his first four contests.

Garrett Nussmeier will easily be the biggest challenge this Mississippi defense has faced this season. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns in LSU’s first five games and has 300+ passing yards in four of his five outings. 

Mississippi has found much of its success defensively against the pass through getting to the quarterback, with a sack rate of better than 10%. LSU’s allowing sacks on just 1.2% of its pass plays this season, and the freakish pass rush of South Carolina managed just two in its loss to the Tigers.

The Rebels could be without edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, who PFF has rated as the 14th-best player at his position this season. Defensive tackle JJ Pegues is also questionable, leaving Mississippi potentially without half of its outstanding defensive line.

LSU’s defense hasn’t been great, but Mississippi will find its defense exposed to an elite passing attack without the ability to generate sacks to compensate for issues at the back end. The Rebels have been hurt this season by holding and pass interference flags against good receivers, and cornerback Brandon Turnage has been repeatedly targeted by opposing offenses.

The Tigers are well-rested coming off a bye, and the atmosphere will be a massive advantage for them. Take LSU to add another night victory to its record. 

Georgia Southern

Best odds: +105 at BetMGM

It’s easy to look at the Georgia Southern Eagles' defensive stats and think there’s no shot that the Marshall Thundering Herd doesn’t roll to a win. But it’s important to remember that the Eagles have played two offenses this season in Mississippi and Boise State that severely skewed the data.

The Rebels posted over 600 yards of total offense, running up the score well past when the game was decided. And the Broncos put up 651 yards, thanks in part to Ashton Jeanty gaining 267 on the ground.

While their defense hasn’t been the best, the Eagles haven’t been as bad as it seems at first glance. But more importantly, they’ve been able to put up points — enough so that they pushed Boise to the limit, leading 37-36 with 13:30 left in that game.

Marshall has an outstanding rushing attack, but it ranks just 64th in EPA/rush. Furthermore, throwing the ball is an area of concern. The Thundering Herd are middle of the pack in EPA/dropback, and rank in the 100s in yards per pass, completion rate, and explosiveness.

Georgia Southern likes to throw the ball, and JC French has had good games when not playing Power 4 teams. He leads an offense that has yet to fail in the red zone, and I expect he’ll find points against a Marshall defense that ranks 96th in red zone scoring defense and 95th in scoring defense. 

Cornerback Jacobie Henderson has been targeted 25 times this season, allowing 19 catches for 245 yards. Quarterbacks are also posting a QB rating of 158.3 when attacking safety JJ Roberts. Only nine FBS teams are completing more passes to wide receivers past the line of scrimmage per game than Georgia Southern, and I expect the Eagles will find success downfield.  

Marshall has just 28 throws of 10+ yards this season, and it changed quarterbacks last week with the dual-threat Braylon Braxton taking the reins. This will be his first road test, and the fourth-year junior has had only one good road outing in his career despite multiple starts. 

The Eagles want revenge over their rivals after letting a win slip away last season behind two late touchdowns. I’m expecting this one to be a shootout, and I’ll back the team playing at home with the better quarterback and something to prove.