NCAAF Underdog Picks of the Week: Hop on Horned Frogs Moneyline

Florida moneyline

Best odds: +110 at bet365

Last week wasn’t a letdown from the Mississippi win like many may think, but rather more of the same for a Kentucky Wildcats team that simply can’t move the ball. As great as their defense has been this season, it’s the offense that has them sitting at 3-3 and looking primed for another upset.

Kentucky has been favored twice in SEC play, and both times have come away with outright home losses. Now they travel to “The Swamp” to face a rejuvenated Florida Gators team showing signs of life, and with its quarterback situation decided — albeit due to injury.

The fact that Graham Mertz is out for the rest of the season means DJ Lagway no longer has to look over his shoulder. The freshman came into the game last week against Tennessee and threw the game-tying touchdown with just 29 ticks on the clock to force overtime. While he completed just nine of 17 attempts for 98 yards, he showed poise at times in a hostile environment.

Lagway is a quarterback who can hurt Kentucky with his legs, and he’ll need to rely on Montrell Johnson Jr. and Jadan Baugh to have solid games on the ground. Kentucky’s run defense showed weaknesses last week as Vanderbilt ran over and around it. 

But it was penalties on both sides of the ball that really hurt the Wildcats. Kentucky ranks 115th in penalties per play and 81st in flags per game. If they can’t dominate time of possession and run the ball, it’ll allow the Gators to pin their ears back with a pass rush that is sacking the quarterback once every 12 drop-backs.

Brock Vandagriff is making just his second road start, and if not for a deep-shot completion on fourth down late in the game, he would’ve lost his first one to Mississippi. Kentucky scored just 20 points in the game, with their first touchdown being aided by numerous penalties. He won’t get that kind of luck here.

Florida’s defense has posted three of its top four pass rush grades in the last three contests, and had its third-best rush defense grade against a solid Tennessee running attack. The Gators won’t have problems slowing down a Kentucky passing attack that has struggled in three of its four games against SEC opposition, and they’ll get enough offensive production to get the win.

TCU moneyline

Best odds: +145 at bet365

Speaking of quarterback sagas, the Cameron Rising “will he, won’t he” drama is finally over for the Utah Utes with the quarterback officially ruled out for the season. Isaac Wilson will be the man going forward, and that’s a big drop-off for the Utes. The freshman has more picks than touchdowns this season, and he has a 2:4 ratio in Big 12 play.

The TCU Horned Frogs haven’t been a great team, especially defensively. The Horned Frogs struggle to stop the run, but have been above average against the pass. Turnovers have been a huge problem for TCU, with a minus-2.2 turnover margin per game that ranks dead-last in the FBS with an offense averaging nearly three per contest.

So why do I think the Horned Frogs are in a position to pull off the upset? First of all, Utah’s defense may not be as good as the numbers indicate. The Utes don’t get to the quarterback very often with a sack rate of just 4.43%. While they’re allowing the fifth-lowest completion rate in college football, they haven’t faced many elite passing attacks.

Second is their red-zone defense. Teams are posting a 90% success rate inside the 20, an area where the Horned Frogs are doing well when they can get there. TCU is also converting third downs at better than 50%, the seventh-best rate in the country. And the Horned Frogs rank 15th in EPA/pass, which will test Utah’s 10th-ranked defense in that metric. 

The other issue is Utah is simply inconsistent on offense. The Utes rank in the 100s in third-down conversion and points per play, and 90th in red-zone scoring. They have posted negative EPA marks in both the run and pass game, and rank 104th in net EPA/drive. I’m not sure that their offense will be able to fully take advantage of TCU’s defensive issues.

When he’s given time to throw, Josh Hoover has been money. He’s already over the 2,000-yard mark on the season, with a 9:4 TD/INT ratio in conference play. And he rarely gets phased. He’s posting a 92.8 QBR under pressure according to PFF, compared to just a 22.1 QBR for Utah’s quarterbacks this season.

Utah has been favored four times in Big 12 play, and it’s lost the last two games outright while narrowly beating Oklahoma State. With this game being played away from home in Salt Lake City, the Utes lose some of their terrific night atmosphere advantage. 

If TCU used its bye week to work on turnover issues, then the Horned Frogs have the passing attack to give Utah problems. If this game turns into a high-scoring affair, Utah simply won’t have the quarterback play to keep up.

South Carolina moneyline

Best odds: +105 at BetMGM

Only two teams in the SEC have allowed more sacks in conference play than the Oklahoma Sooners; one is Kentucky, the other is the South Carolina Gamecocks. South Carolina has conceded 19 sacks in four conference games, with the Sooners allowing 11 through three games.

In a game with two outstanding pass rushing units, we’re likely to see points at a premium. That begs the question — which offense do you trust more?

For me, that answer is simple, and it’s the South Carolina offense. While the Gamecocks haven’t done a great job protecting LaNorris Sellers, he’s been improving when given time. He made some impressive throws last week as the Gamecocks nearly upset Alabama on the road, losing by two despite being 21.5-point underdogs.

The same can’t be said for Michael Hawkins Jr. After taking over for the benched Jackson Arnold, the freshman has thrown just one touchdown across two and a half games. His two starts against Auburn and Texas have featured a combined 309 passing yards, with the Longhorns taking him down six times.

The Sooners can’t sustain drives, in large part due to failing on first down. Oklahoma ranks 130th in early down EPA/play and 130th in average third-down yardage, needing more than eight yards per attempt. And now they’ll be without four of their top five receivers, with Deion Burks questionable as well.

South Carolina has already played one team this season with an iffy offense and elite defense, when it went on the road and defeated Kentucky 31-6 despite being a 9.5-point dog. The Gamecocks won by swarming the Kentucky quarterback and causing mayhem with their pass rush, and finding enough plays to eventually wear down the Wildcats. 

That’s the same recipe for success they’ll use here. Hawkins has been poor when pressured, and has been fortunate to not throw a pick. That’ll change here against a South Carolina secondary that is lanky and has an interception rate ranked 11th nationally. 

The Gamecocks have been the better team this season, and they’ll be the better team on Saturday.