The Utah Utes are by far and away the best team in the Big 12... the caveat being if quarterback Cam Rising is healthy.
But Cam Rising or not, the Utes have one of the best defenses in the country, and it's the focal point of my Utah vs. Arizona State predictions.
Here are my college football picks for this Big 12 battle on Friday, Oct. 11.
Utah vs Arizona State prediction and best bet
Who will win Utah vs Arizona State?
This is a loaded question without knowing the status of QB Cam Rising. But as the proud owner of a Utah 66/1 national title ticket, I'll stick to my guns and pick the Utes here. I believe Utah's defense can overwhelm Arizona State breakout QB Sam Leavitt and grind out the win.
My best bet
Arizona State team total Under 20.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The joke around the Covers college football department is a magic 8-ball is more reliable than a Kyle Whittingham injury update.
Right on cue (pun intended), Whittingham, in his early week media availability said, “there’s a chance,” star QB Cam Rising plays this game at Arizona State.
Cut to a gif of the magic 8-ball with the “don’t count on it” response.
To recap: Rising injured his hand with what was called a dislocated finger and deep laceration after being driven into a Gatorade table in Utah’s second game of the season against Baylor. It was initially called not serious, and he was expected back when Utah traveled to Stillwater a few weeks later.
Rising has since been called a game-time decision the last several games, but freshman Issac Wilson has gotten the call each time, and it finally cost the Utes in a 23-10 upset loss to Arizona.
My gut says it’s Wilson, but I’m taking this crazy QB situation out of the equation. Utah will remain a favorite to win the Big 12 because of defense. The Utes enter this game ranked sixth in the country in defensive success rate and 20th in opponent yards per play. Even in the loss to Arizona, they allowed a respectable 5.8 yards per play.
This week the Utes will be tasked with slowing down the surprising Sun Devils' offense. Arizona State is led by Sophomore quarterback Sam Leavitt and running back Cam Skattebo. They’ve been good, ranking 19th in offensive success rate on their way to an impressive 4-1 start.
That said, what is the best defense Arizona State has faced? Kansas? Texas Tech? Utah is a completely different animal.
Defensive tackle Junior Tafuna can muck up the Sun Devils' plans. He can not only muck up the run but create pressure on the quarterback from the interior. While an experienced secondary ranked third in defensive success rate on dropbacks can handle the rest.
I’m betting this Utah defense gives Arizona State its first real challenge this season and keeps the Sun Devils below their team total.
Utah vs Arizona State same-game parlay (SGP)
Arizona State team total Under 20.5
Dorian Singer 60+ receiving yards
Brant Kuithe anytime touchdown
Issac Wilson (yes, Zach Wilson’s little brother) is the future of Utah football. But he definitely looks like a freshman at this point, as he’s been pretty inefficient in relief of Cam Rising, completing just 56% of his passes with a terrible TD:INT ratio of 6:7.
That said, he’s definitely found some security blankets in wide receiver Dorian Singer and tight end Brant Kuithe.
Singer leads the Utes with 26 receptions and 359 yards, with 16 of those catches and 250 of those yards coming in the last two weeks, while Kuithe is the red zone threat and leads the team in TDs with five.
The Utes play an Arizona State team ranked 77th in defensive success rate on dropbacks. So, give me Singer to hit 60+ yards and Kuithe to score an anytime touchdown. And in the off chance Rising plays, we’re definitely getting some closing line value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Utah vs Arizona State odds
Utah vs Arizona State live odds
Utah vs Arizona State opening odds
- Utah vs. Arizona State spread: Arizona State +4
- Utah vs. Arizona State moneyline: Utah -170, Arizona State +145
- Utah vs. Arizona State Over/Under: 45
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Utah vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The uncertainty surrounding the status of Utah QB Cam Rising has definitely had an impact on this line.
- Arizona State opened this Big 12 matchup as four-point home underdogs, and with early week reports being Rising had a chance to play this week, the line moved to Utah -6.5. But then it seems everyone remembered Kyle Whittingham can't be trusted and the spread has come back to 4.5.
- The total hit the board at 45, and that's approximately where it remains as of Thursday morning.
- I will stay away from the total until we get word on Rising. Without him and a strong defense, the Utes look like an Under team and are 1-4 O/U for the season.
Utah vs Arizona State betting trend to know
Utah is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the last four meetings against Arizona State. Find more college football betting trends for Utah vs Arizona State.
Utah vs Arizona State game info
| Location: | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, 10-11, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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