The Penn State Nittany Lions look to keep its College Football Playoff resume looking sharp when they host the Washington Huskies tonight.
Washington needs one more win to become bowl-eligible, but the Huskies have looked shaky on the road this season. A loss last week to Ohio State ended Penn State’s hopes of playing for a Big Ten title, but the Nittany Lions look safe in the playoffs should they win out — and beating Washington would be a solid notch in the win column.
Our Washington vs. Penn State predictions are targeting one area of this matchup. Read our college football picks for Saturday, November 9 below for more.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Beaver Stadium in University Park, with the game airing on Peacock.
Washington vs Penn State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Kaytron Allen Over 73.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Last week wasn’t a good showing for the Penn State Nittany Lions rushing attack. The Buckeyes shut down the two-headed monster of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, as they gained a combined 42 yards on 18 carries. In fact, quarterback Drew Allar and wideout Tyler Warren both gained more yards on the ground.
Not only will Allen have a much more favorable matchup this week, but the stingy secondary of Washington is going to require him to have a fairly heavy workload. That’s why his rushing total of 73.5 is my favorite play on the board.
The Washington Huskies rank 92nd in EPA/rush this season, and teams have run the ball down their throat in conference play. They’ve given more than 5.0 yards per carry to Rutgers, Iowa, and USC in their past five games, with Michigan hitting them for 4.7 per tote. And aside from Northwestern’s poor showing, Big Ten teams have averaged 37.6 carries for 186.4 yards on the ground.
A big reason for the elevated rushing attempts against Washington is down to how good its pass defense is. Washington’s defense ranks third nationally in EPA/pass and ninth in completion rate allowed. The Huskies are allowing an impressive 134.3 passing yards per conference game, with quarterbacks averaging just 5.1 yards per throw. And aside from USC — who threw the ball 50 times — the Huskies have held all of their Big Ten foes to fewer than 150 passing yards.
Allar’s not been a high-volume passer this season, and asking him to do so here wouldn’t make sense. Thus, I expect both Allen and Singleton should see a high volume of carries in this contest, and that bodes well for us. Prior to the Ohio State game, Allen eclipsed this number in three of four games, including an 11-carry, 86-yard performance the week before at Wisconsin.
Allen’s the type of back who runs over opponents and punishes them, and that’s just what the Penn State coaching staff will want to utilize to wear down the Washington defense. The Huskies have given up 27 runs of 10+ yards in six conference games, and Allen had three such runs against Wisconsin — a team with similar issues against the run as the Huskies.
Washington is conceding 3.2 line yards per rush with a stuff rate of just 13% and now faces a Nittany Lions line gaining almost 3.5 yards per rush and a rushing attack generating nearly 1.4 second-level yards per carry. Allen will likely see 15+ carries and easily top his number with a couple of big runs helping him get there.
Washington vs Penn State same-game parlay (SGP)
Kaytron Allen Over 74.5 rushing yards
Giles Jackson Over 39.5 receiving yards
Penn State -12.5
Washington will struggle to run the football against a terrific Penn State rush defense, which means Will Rogers will have to utilize the mid-range passing game more than usual. Penn State will be keying on explosive receiver Denzel Boston, and that opens up some opportunities for Giles Jackson.
The receiver leads the team in targets and has caught 55 of the 68 passes thrown his way. With an average depth of 7.1 yards per target and 1.96 yards per route run, he’s been reliable and consistent in his production. And with 44+ receiving yards in all but two contests this season, his floor of 40 is very reachable.
Washington has been inconsistent on offense, in large part due to penalties. The Huskies rank in the 100s in penalties and penalty yards per game, and the offense has thrived on getting turnovers to set themselves up with solid field position.
Penn State simply doesn’t turn the football over, and the ground game will wear down Washington’s defense and turn drives into points. Averaging 4.5 points per opportunity, look for the home team to break down Washington’s solid red zone defense as the Huskies lose a third straight road game by multiple touchdowns.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Washington vs Penn State odds
Washington vs Penn State live odds
Washington vs Penn State opening odds
- Washington vs. Penn State spread: Penn State -13.5
- Washington vs. Penn State moneyline: Washington +450, Penn State -600
- Washington vs. Penn State Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Washington vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line opened at -13.5 in favor of Penn State, but the home team is now at -12.5 with early movement on Saturday morning. Washington is 0-3 on the road this year, failing to cover the spread in any of those games. The Nittany Lions are just 1-4 ATS in Big Ten play but did cover against Wisconsin the last time they were favored.
- Washington’s defense has been getting run over and around of late, and both Indiana and Iowa won by 14+ despite being favored by single digits.
- The total has jumped two points, moving from 45.5 to 47.5 early Saturday morning. Washington’s last three games have all seen 47+ points scored, but the Under is 7-2 in its games this season. For the Nittany Lions, the Under has also gone 7-2 and 5-1 in their last six.
- The shift in the total has me leaning Under. Washington’s offense is going to have problems moving the ball on the ground, and Penn State will want to run the ball and keep the clock moving. The Nittany Lions have seen their total stay below 41 points in four of their last five games.
Washington vs Penn State betting trend to know
Penn State has stayed Under the total in nine of its last 12 games for +5.7 units and a 43% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Washington vs Penn State.
Washington vs Penn State game info
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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