Between traditional powerhouses underperforming, former contenders getting back into the national championship picture, and unexpected schools putting together historic seasons, it’s been a long time since we’ve had this many interesting stories in college football.
Some of the key programs in these storylines are taking center stage in my picks this weekend. Let’s turn these narratives into profitable bets with my two best college football parlay picks for Week 7.
Week 7 college football parlay picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Kansas +9 (-107) + Clemson -3.5 (-107) = +274 at PointsBet
Kansas +9 (-107)
The Kansas Jayhawks may no longer be undefeated, but they suffered no shame in a 38-31 loss to an excellent TCU Horned Frogs team last weekend. While Kansas may not be a national title contender, it can play with just about anyone in the country.
Meanwhile, it’s hard to say anything good about the Oklahoma Sooners right now. After a comfortable 3-0 start, Oklahoma has wilted against stronger competition, culminating in an embarrassing 49-0 loss to the Texas Longhorns last week. The Sooners are now 3-3 and have work to do even to earn bowl eligibility this season.
Kansas will be able to move the ball against the Oklahoma defense. The Jayhawks are running for 213.8 yards per game, while the Sooners are among the worst run defenses in the country, giving up an average of 214.5 yards on the ground. Running back Devin Neal and quarterback Jalon Daniels are both averaging over six yards per carry, while Oklahoma gives up 4.8 yards per rush.
If anything, Daniels has been even better throwing the ball. Kansas is averaging 0.44 EPA per passing play, with Daniels throwing for 11 touchdowns and just one interception. While Oklahoma has been slightly better against the pass, its overall defensive numbers aren’t great, with the Sooners allowing 29.2 points and 450 yards per game.
It’s hard to imagine Oklahoma doing enough on offense to cover a nine-point spread against this dynamic Kansas offense. It’s also worth noting how both of these teams played against their best competition of the year. While the Jayhawks lost to TCU by a touchdown, the Horned Frogs ran wild against the Sooners in a 55-24 win.
Clemson -3.5 (-107)
After a relatively down year for the program in 2021, the Clemson Tigers have reemerged as a national title contender this season. While Clemson hasn’t been dominant against its best opponents — it needed overtime to beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on the road, and only beat the NC State Wolfpack by 10 at home — it’s 6-0 and ranked No. 4 in the country as it heads into Saturday’s matchup with the Florida State Seminoles.
The Seminoles have struggled against the upper tier of the ACC this year, dropping games to both Wake Forest and NC State in the past two weeks. While they stand at 4-2 on the year, they’ve also struggled to get past both the Louisville Cardinals and LSU Tigers.
Heading into this game, Clemson looks like the superior team on both offense and defense. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei has powered a Tigers offense that’s scoring 39.3 points per game, while Clemson is holding opponents to an average of just 18.3 points in response.
Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis has thrown for 1,407 yards and nine touchdowns this year, rating as one of the best signal-callers in the country. And if the Tigers defense can be beat, it‘s through the air, where they’re allowing 255.5 yards per game.
But it’s unlikely Florida State will score enough points to even stay close with Clemson, which has put up at least 30 points in every game this season. Even with the Seminoles playing at home, Clemson should win this game by multiple scores and easily cover the spread.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: USC +3.5 (-107) + James Madison -11.5 (-107) = +274 at PointsBet
USC +3.5 (-107)
The No. 7 USC Trojans are back in the College Football Playoff discussion after several years of mediocrity. USC has jumped out to a 6-0 record, and a 4-0 record in the Pac-12. With the exception of a 17-14 scare against the Oregon State Beavers, the Trojans have been dominating their opponents and look like a national power.
That makes it somewhat surprising to find USC coming into its Saturday matchup against the 4-2 Utah Utes as a 3.5-point underdog. Utah is coming off a 42-32 road loss against the undefeated UCLA Bruins, and also a game to the Florida Gators to open the season.
Yet a deeper look at this matchup reveals two very similar teams. Both are scoring just over 40 points per game; Utah is allowing an average of 19 points, just barely more than USC (18.7). The Trojans can get after opposing quarterbacks, recording a nation-best 24 sacks this season, but Utah can get around that with a strong running attack that includes quarterback Cameron Rising, who is averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
The biggest worry for Utah is the 42 points it allowed against UCLA. While the Utes hold strong overall numbers on defense, both the Bruins — and the Gators, to a lesser extent — have shown they can be beat. USC has similar offensive firepower to those teams.
This game looks like a tossup to me, with USC having slightly better talent, but only enough to counteract Utah’s home-field advantage. Given that this could easily be a one-score game either way, I’m happy to jump on USC getting more than a field goal.
James Madison -11.5 (-107)
Is there a better story than the James Madison Dukes? In their first year of FBS play, James Madison is 5-0 and ranked No. 25 in the AP poll. While the school faces an uphill battle in convincing the NCAA to allow it to play in a bowl this year — transitioning programs typically have to wait two years for bowl eligibility, and even James Madison only planned on getting that shortened to a one-season wait — there’s no doubting that this team can play.
The Dukes haven’t played a strong schedule, naturally, but they do have a very respectable 32-28 win at Appalachian State over the Mountaineers. Outside of that game, James Madison has won each of its games by at least 22 points.
Next up for the Dukes is a visit to the Georgia Southern Eagles. Georgia Southern is 3-3 on the year and has a signature win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers — though that immediately lead to the firing of Nebraska head coach Scott Frost.
The big mismatch in this game pits the James Madison offense, which is averaging 44.2 points per game, against a Georgia Southern defense that’s allowing 456.7 yards per game to opponents. The Eagles have allowed 34 or more points to four opponents this year, including its highest-quality opponents in Nebraska and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.
James Madison has also shut down its opponents on defense, allowing just 227.4 yards and 15 points per game. While the Dukes haven’t played the best teams in the country, these numbers are outstanding even when adjusting for strength of competition.
The Dukes are significantly better on both sides of the ball here. Even with a spread as large as 11.5 points, I’m backing James Madison to win big here.
