Coming off a bye, Ohio State takes on a struggling Marshall team at home with a chance for another blowout win over a Group of Five program.
The Buckeyes are a 40-point favorite against the Thundering Herd, and I break down why the scarlet and gray’s new pieces are poised to put on a show in my Marshall vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 21.
Marshall vs Ohio State prediction
My best bet
Ohio State -40 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There are many new faces in Columbus after a disappointing end to last season for Ryan Day’s program. The vast majority of those new players and coaches are on the offensive side of the ball after the Ohio State Buckeyes were uncharacteristically sporadic when it came to scoring last year.
Luckily for Day, all his new acquisitions have Ohio State cruising on offense this season. With Chip Kelly calling plays and Will Howard behind center, the Buckeyes have outscored their two G5 opponents 108-6 this season.
And while the Marshall Thundering Herd has historically been a better program than Akron and Western Michigan, head coach Charles Huff is on the hot seat after going 6-7 last year.
The Thundering Herd haven't been particularly impressive through two games either. While they do have a star pass rusher in Mike Green, they're just 91st in SP+ on defense.
Marshall will have a tough time stopping this Buckeyes' rushing attack that appears to be revitalized under Kelly. Between TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State has the best one-two punch at running back in the country.
Those two have the Buckeyes ranked 10th in EPA per rush on offense, and this is a Thundering Herd defense that’s just 83rd in EPA per rush after giving up 208 yards to Virginia Tech in their last game.
Not to mention, Howard has looked smooth as Day’s starting QB and has plenty of toys to play with, namely Emeka Egbuka and freshman Jeremiah Smith. So Marshall can’t even sell out to stop the run because this offense is ninth in EPA per dropback.
But it’s the other side of the ball that has me confident Ohio State will cover. Marshall is 101st in EPA per dropback and 89th in SP+ on offense.
Marshall managed just 278 total yards against the Hokies and QB Stone Earle completed only 36.1% of his passes in the loss. And the Buckeyes defense is significantly better than Virginia Tech’s.
Ohio State is 1st in SP+ on defense and Top 6 in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback. With potential first-round picks all over the defensive line and secondary, Marshall won’t be able to score enough to cover.
Marshall vs Ohio State same-game parlay (SGP)
Ohio State -40
Quinshon Judkins anytime TD
Jeremiah Smith 80+ receiving yards
In his Buckeyes debut, Judkins was a little quieter than most were expecting but still managed to score a touchdown. Then he exploded in Week 2 with 108 yards and two scores on just nine carries.
Judkins leads the Buckeyes in carries (22), rushing yards (163), yards after contact (73), missed tackles forced (12), 10+ yard runs (seven), and touchdowns (three). He should see enough work to score against Marshall.
Judkins isn’t the only new Buckeye thriving either. Smith, the No. 1 recruit in the country has looked like a Marvin Harrison Jr. clone. He’s averaging 105.5 receiving yards per game and leads Ohio State in both yards per route run (4.80) and contested catches (two).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Marshall vs Ohio State odds
Marshall vs Ohio State live odds
Marshall vs Ohio State opening odds
- Spread: Marshall +39.5 | Ohio State -39.5
- Moneyline: Marshall OTB | Ohio State OTB
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Marshall vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ohio State opened as a 39.5-point favorite with most books coming up to -40 by Friday morning.
- The Buckeyes are 8-6-1 ATS dating back to last season while Marshall is 6-9.
- The Over/Under opened between 50.5 and 51.5 with most books coming up to 52.5.
- Ohio State is 5-10 betting the Over since last year while the Thundering Herd is 7-8.
Marshall vs Ohio State betting trend to know
Marshall has only covered the spread in one of its last six away games (-4.50 Units / -68% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Marshall vs Ohio State.
Marshall vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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