The Indiana Hoosiers will look to jump out to a 2-0 start on the season as they host the lowly Western Illinois Leathernecks on Friday night.
The Hoosiers (1-0) are massive favorites in the over the Leathernecks (0-1), an FCS squad that is riding a 25-game losing streak, and my Western Illinois vs. Indiana predictions call for plenty of points, even in a blowout.
This game shouldn’t be competitive for any length of time, but I still have plenty to break down for bettors in my free college football picks for September 6.
Western Illinois vs Indiana prediction
My best bet
Over 52 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
New Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti is looking to change the culture of the school's football program. If nothing else, his team was set up for success in the first couple weeks of his first season.
After a 31-7 opening win over the Florida International Panthers, Indiana now takes a significant step down in competition against Western Illinois.
The Leathernecks may, unfortunately, be the worst Division 1 football program in the nation right now. It’s not just that they’ve lost 25 straight games — though that’s a clear sign of a problem — but it’s how they’ve lost against some middling competition.
Western Illinois only had one single-digit loss last year, and finished the year with six Ls in which the Leathernecks averaged just 5.33 points per game, while allowing an average of 48 to their opponents.
That was all against FCS competition — albeit including some of the top programs at that level, including the North Dakota State Bison and the South Dakota Coyotes. The last time the Leathernecks faced an FBS opponent, they were whipped 58-21 on the road by the New Mexico State Aggies last season.
But even a blowout loss like that shows the danger of betting on a team like Indiana — which might not be a better opponent than last year’s Aggies squad — when they have been made such a massive favorite against an inferior opponent.
The Hoosiers are six-touchdown favorites tonight, and winning by that amount takes more than just a huge talent gulf. It also takes focus throughout the entire game, and an approach that leads to a one-sided affair for the full 60 minutes.
Indiana probably isn’t looking at the game this way. The Hoosiers played 55 different players against FIU and might go even deeper into their roster on Friday.
Indiana’s backups should be able to score (and score, and score) against the Leathernecks. However, when the Hoosiers go to their depth, they may give some points back to Western Illinois in the second half, which makes me look at the Over as the better play tonight.
Indiana might hit the 52.5-point total all on its own — but if the Leathernecks contribute anything at all, the Over is sure to hit, making it the much safer bet in this matchup.
Western Illinois vs Indiana same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 52
Indiana -42.5
There isn’t much in the way of options available for betting on this game, but we can still put together a small SGP by picking a side to go along with our Over pick. I’m going to do just that by taking Indiana to cover the 42-point spread tonight.
This pick isn’t so much about Indiana as it is an indictment of the Western Illinois program. The Leathernecks have allowed nine of their last 12 opponents to score at least 43 points, with most of those teams being FCS teams of varying quality.
Expect Indiana to score at will and cover the spread without too much trouble, perhaps being the only team to score as we go Over the total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Western Illinois vs Indiana odds
Western Illinois vs Indiana live odds
Western Illinois vs Indiana opening odds
- Spread: Western Illinois +43 | Indiana -43
- Moneyline: N/A
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-110) | Under Over 52.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Western Illinois vs Indiana spread and Over/Under analysis
- Indiana went 7-5 against the spread last season, and failed to cover in its first game of 2024. Western Illinois is 0-1 ATS so far this year.
- The Leathernecks lost three games last season by at least 43 points, all against fellow FCS schools.
- The Hoosiers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games against FCS opponents.
- Indiana has hit the Over in seven of its last 10 games overall.
Western Illinois vs Indiana betting trend to know
Western Illinois has played to a total of at least 52 points in 11 of its last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for Western Illinois vs Indiana.
Western Illinois vs Indiana game info
| Location: | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN |
| Date: | Friday, 9-6-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
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