The post-Nick Saban era at Alabama officially gets underway when the Crimson Tide kick off their 2024 season against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
One guy who will be back for the Crimson Tide is Jalen Milroe and he's the focus for my Western Kentucky vs. Alabama predictions.
Will he shine in game one under Kalen DeBoer? My college football picks for Saturday, August 31 believe so.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Jalen Milroe Over 240.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It feels a little weird to preview an Alabama game where Nick Saban isn’t involved but here we are.
To replace the six-time National Champion, the Crimson Tide athletic department turned to Kalen DeBoer. While DeBoer has some big shoes to fill, he has had success everywhere he’s gone.
DeBoer comes over from Washington where he went 25-3 which included a Pac-12 Championship and an appearance in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game last season.
And while the departure of Saban meant some players leaving through the transfer portal or recruits decommitting, this is still Alabama, and the cupboards are still stocked with loads of talent.
That talent begins and ends with quarterback Jalen Milroe. The junior signal caller looked to be primarily a running quarterback when he first saw action with the Crimson Tide, but when he took over the starting job last year he quickly developed into one of the more efficient passers in the country, with a cannon of an arm to boot.
Milroe ended the season throwing for 2,834 yards while completing 65.8% of his passes with 26 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. And now with DeBoer here to continue that development the sky is the limit for Milroe.
DeBoer famously worked his magic with Michael Penix Jr. at Washington the last two seasons, helping the former Huskies QB throw for over 9,500 yards, and I’m betting he can work that same magic with Milore.
The Bama QB put up the numbers he did last season despite the fact that Alabama ranks 120th in the country in pass play percentage. Here is where DeBoer’s teams have ranked in pass play percentage over the last four seasons: 14th, 10th, sixth, and ninth.
Milroe averaged just under 230 yards passing in the regular season last year. His passing yards prop for this matchup against Western Kentucky is sitting at 240.5. Even if Bama doesn’t jump into the Top 10 in pass-play percentage, there is still going to be an increase in pass-game production.
And if you look at games where Washington was big favorites last season, they still threw the ball 40 times a game.
Mix in a matchup with what should be an overmatched Western Kentucky secondary, that allowed a not-great Kyle McCord to throw for 318 yards last season and I really like Milroe to hit the Over on this prop.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 59.5
Germie Bernard any time touchdown
Justice Haynes 80+ rushing yards
While I like Jalen Milroe to go Over his passing yard prop in this matchup, I don’t necessarily think this game is destined to go Over the large total that is sitting at 59.5.
Kalen DeBoer is also inheriting what could be one of the more balanced Alabama defenses in recent years. They have plenty of depth on the defensive line and shouldn’t have trouble disrupting a Hilltoppers offense that now has former LSU and Auburn Tiger, TJ Finely as its starting quarterback.
I also like Milrow to find Germie Bernard for a touchdown at some point on Saturday. Bernard is a transfer from Washington who DeBoer loves. He had nearly 500 yards receiving last season as the Huskies fourth-best wideout.
And let’s close this SGP out with Justice Haynes to go for 80+ yards. I really don’t see Western Kentucky stopping Bama through the air or on the ground. They ranked 109th in opponent yards per carry. Haynes rushed for 168 yards at 6.7 yards per carry in limited action as a freshman last season. He could be Bama’s next star back.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Western Kentucky vs Alabama odds
Western Kentucky vs Alabama live odds
Western Kentucky vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Western Kentucky +32.5 | Alabama -32.5
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky +3,300 | Alabama -4,000
- Over/Under: Over 60.5 | Under 60.5
Western Kentucky vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite the fact this line has been on the board for months, there has been very little movement to the spead with Alabama at -31.5 about 24 hours out from kickoff.
- Alabama was a tremendous bet in its opening game during the Nick Saban era, going 14-2 ATS. Will that continue with Kalen DeBoer as the new head coach?
- The total opened at 60.5 and has come down slightly, now sitting at 59.5.
- While both Alabama and Western Kentucky were solid over bets in 2023, it is a little hard to imagine the Hilltoppers doing enough offensively in this one to send it Over this big number.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama has covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games for +4.70 Units and a 39% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Alabama.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama game info
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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