The Colorado State Rams look to continue their darkhorse Mountain West bid as they host the Wyoming Cowboys at Canvas Stadium in Week 12 for the Border War.
Jay Norvell’s squad has won four in a row and five of its last six to reach bow eligibility, whereas the Cowboys picked up a much-needed win over New Mexico a week ago and can retain the Bronze Boot with a win.
Read on for my college football picks for Friday, November 15 with kickoff scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on CBSSN.
Wyoming vs Colorado State prediction and best bet
Who will win Wyoming vs Colorado State?
The Colorado State Rams are rolling, sitting undefeated in conference play as we reach mid-November. They haven’t been dominant from an analytics perspective (91st in EPA per play on offense, 68th on defense) but have nonetheless taken advantage of a manageable schedule.
Week 12 brings more of the same with a down Wyoming Cowboys squad hitting the road after both teams just had a bye week. It’s understandable why the Rams are sizable favorites.
My best bet
Wyoming +10 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Cowboys and Rams play in the annual Border War game for the right to the Bronze Boot. What’s the best bet in this matchup?
I’m gritting my teeth and taking the 10 points with Wyoming. Sure, it hasn’t been pretty this season, but 10 points is too many for me to ignore in a rivalry game.
Wyoming metrics are skewed from a tough non-conference slate in which it was blown out by Arizona State, BYU, and North Texas. No shame in that — BYU is 9-0 and in the hunt for the College Football Playoff, Arizona State is 7-2, and North Texas is averaging 36.6 points per game.
It’s been a learning curve for first-year head coach Jay Sawvel, but his team has slowly started to look better during conference play. The Cowboys have picked up two wins (Air Force, New Mexico) and the three losses have come by an average of five points, and none have been by more than 10.
Star running back Harrison Waylee was out due to injury for the first nine weeks of the year — a big blow considering he’s put forth 3,298 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns in his career. He returned in Week 10 and immediately resumed workhorse usage, handling 27 carries for 170 yards and a score.
Waylee was always assumed to be the focal point of this offense, so his insertion into the lineup is a massive boost. Following the bye week, he should continue to look like his true self.
Redshirt freshman quarterback Kaden Anderson has also helped improve the offense lately, completing 35 of his 54 pass attempts (66%) over the last two games while throwing for 524 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Wyoming has been lifeless offensively for much of the year, but Anderson’s 9.9 yards per attempt and Waylee’s return are huge upgrades.
Colorado State has been impressive, but its metrics don’t jump off the page and it has beaten just one FBS opponent by more than 10 points. This is a rivalry game in cold conditions and it isn’t a far trip from Laramie, so this spot doesn’t scream "blowout" to me.
Wyoming vs Colorado State same-game parlay (SGP)
Wyoming +9.5
Harrison Waylee anytime TD
Avery Morrow 80+ rush yards
It’ll be a cold night at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium with the temperature forecast to be 48 degrees at kickoff and as cold as 39 later in the game. Neither passing attack has been lighting the world on fire and the rushing attacks are expected to lead the way.
Waylee is his team’s best offensive weapon and will be needed here against a Colorado State defense that has allowed 1,302 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. The Rams have played only two strong rushing teams this year, Texas and Oregon State, and they combined for 442 yards and eight rushing scores.
Wyoming isn’t on par with those teams, but Waylee is a mega-productive college back and forecasts for a high usage rate. A week ago, Nevada ran for 189 yards and two scores on Colorado State, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar line from the Cowboys.
Avery Morrow has been a huge part of the Rams’ offensive game plan, especially since the passing attack has faltered sans star receiver Tory Horton. He’s rushed for 788 yards and eight scores and should get all the work he can handle against a Wyoming defense that ranks 125th in EPA per rush and 131st in rushing explosiveness.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Wyoming vs Colorado State odds
Wyoming vs Colorado State live odds
Wyoming vs Colorado State opening odds
- Wyoming vs. Colorado State spread: Colorado State -10.5
- Wyoming vs. Colorado State moneyline: Wyoming +300, Colorado State -375
- Wyoming vs. Colorado State Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Wyoming vs Colorado State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Wyoming has been profitable in MWC play, going 4-1 ATS in its last five games this year and 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games dating back to last season.
- Colorado State ranks 91st in EPA per play on offense while averaging 23.6 ppg, and ranks 96th in success rate on defense while allowing 417.6 total yards per game in its last five outings.
- Colorado State has trended to the Under (3-8 O/U in its last 11) while Wyoming has done the opposite (8-4 O/U in its last 12).
Wyoming vs Colorado State betting trend to know
Wyoming is 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Colorado State. Find more college football betting trends for Wyoming vs Colorado State.
Wyoming vs Colorado State game info
| Location: | Sunny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO |
| Date: | Friday, 11-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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