Aaron Rodgers Odds & Props: Player Prop Picks for Monday Night Football Week 1

The Aaron Rodgers era officially begins for the New York Jets on Monday night against the Buffalo Bills. It may not be a long era, but combining the future Hall-of-Famer with the already potent Jets defense could be a recipe for success in New York.

The Rodgers signing was the biggest move of the NFL offseason. We didn’t get to see much of the new quarterback in the preseason, but what we did see of Rodgers was impressive enough, and Week 1 odds feature a variety of Aaron Rodgers-related markets for their Week 1 tilt against Buffalo.

You can see how I’m betting on the Jets quarterback as we examine the MNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more MNF coverage, check out Jason Logan's Bills vs. Jets picks and predictions and Sam Farley's best MNF prop picks.

Aaron Rodgers MNF prop picks

• Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
• Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs/Garrett Wilson anytime TD/Bills ML

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Aaron Rodgers MNF prop pick

Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)

Let’s all take a moment to remember just who Aaron Rodgers is. He’s thrown for 475 touchdowns in his 18-year NFL career, and while his production has slipped a bit over the last couple of seasons, he still managed to put up 26 touchdowns and 3,695 yards for a poor Green Bay Packers team in 2022.

The New York Jets may not be getting prime Rodgers, as the aging quarterback will turn 40 this season. However, he’ll still throw the ball with a strong and accurate arm, and that should lead to more big plays than Jets fans have seen in a long time.

It’s worth examining what the Jets offense will look like to get a better idea of how much we can expect from Rodgers this season. In early 2022, Breece Hall put up some solid numbers for New York out of the backfield, running for 463 yards in seven games and scoring touchdowns in each of his last four outings. Hall’s season was cut short due to a torn ACL in Week 7, and he’s still only practicing in a limited capacity.

Even if Hall does return for Monday’s game, it’s uncertain that he or free agent signing Dalvin Cook will be a focal point of the offense now that Rodgers is in town. The Green Bay legend will be looking to hook up with wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who hauled in 1,103 yards and four touchdowns in his rookie campaign last year.

Wilson is joined by some of Rodgers’ old friends from the Packers. Allen Lazard will be the likely No. 2 receiver for the Jets this year, while veteran Randall Cobb will add some stability and depth after spending the majority of his career catching passes from Rodgers. 

I think the variety of options available to Rodgers — a couple of which he is quite familiar with — will give him free rein to air out the ball starting in Week 1. The Jets may well turn to a pass-first offense, especially when they find themselves in tough games where they could fall behind early and need to dig out of a hole.

That could happen right out of the gate against a Buffalo Bills team that has its own potent offense led by Josh Allen. With two quarterbacks who are both adept at moving the ball, this could turn into something of a shootout, which means more opportunities for Rodgers to push the ball down the field.

I’m expecting Rodgers to find the endzone at least a couple of times on Monday night in his New York debut.

Prop: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+120)

Aaron Rodgers MNF same-game parlay

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Garrett Wilson anytime touchdowns

Bills moneyline

+700 at DraftKings

Just because I think Rodgers will get the ball into the endzone doesn’t mean that I expect the Jets to win this game. That allows us to make an interesting same-game parlay, where we predict a strong performance from Rodgers but one that ultimately leads to a loss.

First, we’ll start by using the Rodgers passing touchdowns prop from above. Since we’re predicting that Rodgers will throw for at least two scores, we should parlay that with a prediction on who we think might catch one of those passes.

My pick for that is Wilson, who figures to be the No. 1 option for Rodgers this year. The former Ohio State standout has the speed to give Rodgers a legitimate deep threat against opposing secondaries and is the most likely Jets receiver to haul in several long touchdown passes this year. I’m predicting that Wilson will score at least one touchdown in the season opener.

Sadly for Jets fans, this might not be enough for New York to escape the opener with a win. The Bills have the firepower to respond to every punch that Rodgers and the Jets throw. There may be a lot of excitement in New York, but Buffalo is still the team to beat in the AFC East, and I expect it to assert that fact in the opener.

Taking the Bills on the moneyline is a great way to round out this SGP, especially as it doesn’t correlate with our Rodgers-based picks. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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