NFL Anytime Touchdown Props and Conference Championships TD Parlay

There are just three games left on the NFL schedule, so I’m running out of time to hit some TD props.

I have really enjoyed the pricing of the key players in the playoffs. When shopping around, I have found players with big roles in the end zone usually have great prices.

These are my three favorite touchdown NFL picks for the Conference Championships.

Conference Championships touchdown props

• Cook anytime TD (+145 at FanDuel)
• Ertz anytime TD (+290 at FanDuel)
• Hunt anytime TD (+175 at DraftKings)

Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Conference Championships TD props

James Cook anytime TD (+145 at FanDuel)

This is a giant price for a No. 1 running back who has had seven, six, and six red-zone carries in three straight games on an offense that is running the ball at a 58% clip in the postseason — up substantially from their 49% rate in the regular season.

FanDuel has this outlier price, but the other closest books at +120 are solid, too. In fact, I’d still play this at the market low around +105 and think James Cook should have a shorter TD price than Josh Allen whose TDs have come mainly right on the goal line of late.

If Joe Mixon can run over this KC defense, this elite Buffalo running game should be able to rush in two or three scores Sunday night.

Zach Ertz anytime TD (+290 at FanDuel)

This game is tough to play for TDs as Saquon Barkley is a touchdown hog for a Philly offense that has abandoned the passing game, while the Commanders certainly spread things out.

Tight end Zach Ertz has been a staple in the red zone over the last four weeks, though. He has TDs in three of those four games and four in total over that stretch. He finished with another three targets inside the 20 last week vs. the Lions which marked his third time in four weeks getting 3+ RZ targets.

He might not be a huge threat between the 20s, but once the field shrinks, that’s when Ertz comes out to play as red-zone targets have made up 48% of his target share since Week 17 vs. Atlanta.

Terry McLaurin is the No. 1 target in this offense, but he is +125 for a TD — the shortest of all Washington players. What’s his red-zone target share over the last four games? Nowhere near Ertz’s at 20% on three fewer RZ targets.

Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+175 at DraftKings)

I don’t love the KC run game, but Kareem Hunt has been the better back since Isiah Pacheco’s return. The former has the better red-zone role.

The books have adjusted the backs’ rushing props, as both are in the low 30s this week. However, because of the personnel in the red zone, Pacheco should not be longer than Hunt for a touchdown.

Since Pacheco’s return to the lineup following a broken leg, he has ZERO touchdowns on 54 carries, with just five of them coming in the red zone and none inside the five-yard line.

Compare that to Hunt, who might not bust long gains, but he can move the pile in close with rushing TDs in three consecutive games. He has one fewer carry than Pacheco in that span, but nine of those have come in the red zone, and a third of those coming from inside the five-yard line.

I wouldn’t bet him at anything shorter than +150, but the favored RZ back in a creative offense with a 48.5-point total, and this price is a great reason to run this TD bet back. Just get the back with yellow gloves off the field in the red zone. 

Conference Championships anytime touchdown parlay

James Cook

Zach Ertz

Kareem Hunt

+2402 at DraftKings

Always shop around, even with TD parlays. This 3-TD parlay is +1,868 at bet365, +2,100 at BetMGM, +2,271 at FanDuel — which also has two of the best prices — and +2,402 at DraftKings. On a $10 bet, that's a difference of over $40 between the worst and best prices. 

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