The New York Jets will look to build off an encouraging, yet disappointing loss to the Buffalo Bills last week when they take a short trip to play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football.
With Pittsburgh missing some key players on defense and struggling to defend the pass, there should be several ways to capitalize on Aaron Rodgers' odds, and we’ll do so as I dish out my NFL picks for October 20.
Make sure to also check out our Jets vs. Steelers predictions for SNF before placing your bets!
Aaron Rodgers SNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 21.5 completions
(-110 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Rodgers Over 21.5 completions
Rodgers 2+ passing TDs
Rodgers 2.5 rushing yards
(+600 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Aaron Rodgers SNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 21.5 completions (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The New York Jets continue to throw the ball more and more as the weeks go on, now ranking third in the league with a 62.27% pass-play rate. We shouldn’t expect much to change here on Sunday when they square off against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that sits 15th in DVOA against the pass and fifth against the run.
Following a slow start to the season that saw the Jets struggle to establish the run, Rodgers has averaged 41.5 passing attempts over his last four games, completing 62.05% of those tries and eclipsing 21 completions in every contest.
I like this to continue specifically because of how the Jets are throwing the ball. Rodgers sits tied for sixth in the NFL with 29 passing attempts on screen plays, grading out as the second-best passer in this concept according to Pro Football Focus.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are third-worst in the league in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, allowing roughly six yards per target. New York’s got two capable receiving backs in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, and I expect both of them to get fed in this primetime showdown.
Aaron Rodgers SNF same-game parlay
Over 21.5 completions
Aaron Rodgers 2+ passing touchdowns
Over 2.5 rushing yards
Sticking with the trend of short passes — and a heavy preference to throw the ball — the Jets have seemed to put the onus on Rodgers to score around the goal line.
Inside the 20-yard line this season, just two quarterbacks have thrown more passes than Rodgers — who’s gone 16-for-31 in the red zone for six touchdowns.
It’s going to be abundantly clear that the Jets will have an advantage in the passing game here, particularly with Steelers corner Cory Trice Jr. still on IR and linebacker Nick Herbig set to miss another game. Defensive backs Joey Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson have also struggled in 2024, so Rodgers' proficiency in the red zone should set him up for another game of multiple TD passes.
I also think we’ll see Rodgers run for the first time since a Week 4 loss to Denver. Pittsburgh grades out as the second-best pass rush unit in the league, which means Rodgers should spend most of his time outside the pocket and decide to pick up some yards with his legs on more than one occasion.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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