I am coming off the best week to date in my weekly NFL ATS picks as we went 10-5-1 in Week 5.
The record, while good in its own right, still only got me second place in my weekly NFL pool, so I vow to do one better and give you at least two more winners this week.
Join me as I break down my best Week 6 ATS NFL picks below.
Week 6 picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 49ers vs  Seahawks |
(-3.5) |
 Jaguars vs  Bears |
(+2.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Packers |
(-5) |
 Colts vs  Titans |
(-1) |
 Texans vs  Patriots |
(-7) |
 Buccaneers vs  Saints |
(-2.5) |
 Browns vs  Eagles |
(-8.5) |
 Commanders vs  Ravens |
(+6.5) |
 Chargers vs  Broncos |
(+3) |
 Steelers vs  Raiders |
(-3) |
 Lions vs  Cowboys |
(-3.5) |
 Falcons vs  Panthers |
(-6.5) |
 Bengals vs  Giants |
(+3.5) |
 Bills vs  Jets |
(-2.5) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 10-8
Week 6 ATS picks
49ers vs Seahawks
49ers -3.5
Sure, the 49ers may have thrown last week's game away with a poor second half, but this is still a team littered with talent on the offensive side of the ball and I'm expecting a bounce-back effort. The Seahawks defense has been shredded over the last two weeks and I don't see them flipping the switch on a short week.
Jaguars vs Bears
Jaguars +2.5
While the Bears were full marks for beating the Panthers, I liked what I saw from the Jaguars for 55 of the 60 minutes vs. Indianapolis. Throw in the fact that the Jags are accustomed to playing in London, and I'll take the points with them in this spot.
Cardinals vs Packers
Packers -5
This is more a play against the Cardinals than it is a play on the Packers. I'm banking on Arizona suffering a letdown after their comeback win vs. the 49ers last week. The Packers looked good at times vs. the Rams and Jordan Love appears to have shaken the rust off after returning from injury.
Colts vs Titans
Colts -1
Joe Flacco > Will Levis. More so, if they get Jonathan Taylor back, the line will only rise.
Texans vs Patriots
Texans -7
I wrote a blurb here, then had to delete it because the Patriots announced they were going with Drake Maye. So here's my updated blurb: The Patriots' offense is still JV at best (even with Maye), and the Texans will win this one going away.
Buccaneers vs Saints
Buccaneers -2.5
There's cause for concern with Derek Carr under center for the Saints, and with Tampa having the rest advantage and a plethora of weapons, they should do enough on the road to win by at least a field goal.
Browns vs Eagles
Eagles -8.5
No bet against the Browns is a bad bet right now. The Eagles are rested off their bye and at home should dominate this game from start to finish.
Commanders vs Ravens
Commanders +6.5
I'm starting to believe in the Commanders and in particular, Jayden Daniels. He should be able to carve up the Ravens' secondary similar to how Joe Burrow did, and the Ravens may have an emotional letdown off an overtime win vs. a division rival.
Chargers vs Broncos
Broncos +3
Even off a bye, I'm not sure I'm willing to trust the Chargers to pick up a road win of more than a field goal. Both teams rate out evenly on both sides of the football, so I'll take the home dog with a bit of momentum on their side.
Steelers vs Raiders
Steelers -3
This is not a game I particularly like, but someone has to win this game. Give me the team with the better defense in this spot.
Lions vs Cowboys
Lions -3.5
The Cowboys found a way to win on Sunday Night Football, but against any other team with a competent offense, they find no such luck. The Lions are among the best offenses in the league and should have no issues going up and down the field on a weak Cowboys defense.
Falcons vs Panthers
Falcons -6.5
The Falcons enter this one with the rest advantage and the better all-around team. Do you trust the Panthers to play their best game of the year? I don't.
Bengals vs Giants
Giants +3.5
If the Bengals don't blow last week's game vs. Baltimore, I'm taking the Bengals here. However, that didn't play out, and at 1-4, they are all but done from the postseason race this year. The Giants have some momentum, and at home catching more than a field goal, I'll take them to keep it close.
Bills vs Jets
Bills -2.5
Josh Allen will outplay Aaron Rodgers. Sean McDermott will outcoach [insert Jets interim coach]. The Buffalo Bills will beat the New York Jets.
Not intended for use in MA.
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