Bears vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Odds for This Week’s NFL Preseason Game

The Under might be 26-7 through two weeks of NFL preseason action but with this Bears-Chiefs total dropping all the way to 32, we have no choice but to target the Over.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Aug 21, 2024 • 13:23 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The preseason finale between the Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs won’t feature many — if any — starters Thursday night and there have been big moves in the market ahead of this contest.

The Bears have impressed with three straight preseason wins while outscoring their opponents 81-26. Head coach Matt Eberflus is now 7-2 straight up and against the spread in exhibition action.

With Chicago's strong defense and the Under hitting in 26 of the first 33 preseason games this year, the total for this game has dropped considerably, much to the delight of our Bears vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks below.

Bears vs Chiefs prediction

My best bet
Over 32 (-108 at Pinnacle)

My analysis
This total opened at 36 at Pinnacle, but action on the Under has turned this number into a buying opportunity on the Over. The Chicago Bears have averaged 27 points per game this preseason and the Kansas City Chiefs have also put points on the board (18 ppg).

Neither team is expected to play starters and the Bears have a healthy competition for the backup quarterback job with Tyson Bagent and Brett Rypien both playing well this preseason. They’ve connected for 73.7% and 71.4% completion percentages, respectively, while airing it out for 7.9 and 10.9 yards per attempt. 

Backup quarterbacks Chris Oladokun and Ian Book should see the bulk of the action for the Chiefs on Thursday, and they’ve also been efficient. Oladokun has impressed with a 76.5% competition percentage to go along with 10.8 Y/A. Meanwhile, Book has been a checkdown maven with respective marks of 76.9 and 4.8.

I’m anticipating both offenses to be effective enough to clear this decreased total following the overreaction to the Under trend this preseason and the starters for both teams being all but officially ruled out.

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Bears vs Chiefs odds

Bears vs Chiefs live odds

Bears vs Chiefs opening odds

  • Spread: Chicago -2.5 | Kansas City +2.5
  • Moneyline: Chicago -140 | Kansas City +120
  • Over/Under: Over 36 | Under 36

Bears vs Chiefs betting trend to know

Both of Kansas City's preseason games would have gone comfortably Over this 32-point total, with final scores of 26-13 and 24-23. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Chiefs.

Bears vs Chiefs game info

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date: Thursday, 8-22-2024
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Bears vs Chiefs weather

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Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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