It’s been a deeply discouraging start to the season for the 2-4 Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has been a flat-out disappointment throughout his tenure with the franchise.
My Bengals vs. Browns predictions call for Cincinnati's offense to put too many points on the board for Cleveland to cover the spread when they meet on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET at Huntington Bank Stadium in Cleveland, with the game airing on CBS.
Read more in my NFL picks for October 20.
Bengals vs Browns picks & prediction
Spread
The Cincinnati Bengals have shown shortcomings on defense to start the season, but they’ve also hung tough with two Super Bowl betting favorites in Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs and Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens. Cincy will put enough points on the board to pull away from the broken Cleveland Browns in Week 7.
Moneyline
I don’t have the Browns upset on my bingo card, and I’d go with the Bengals -5.5 spread over the Cincinnati moneyline. Cleveland might hang tough on defense and keep this game interesting, but I don’t expect it to score enough to win or cover.
Over/Under
Even with this total the lowest since Week 1 for Cincy, I still don’t think Cleveland can put enough points on the board for the Over to hit. The Browns average just 15.8 points per game and rank last in the NFL in yards per play (3.9). Cleveland is also second last in EPA per play.
My Bengals vs Browns best bet
Bengals -5.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Browns have the worst DVOA in the league, and they’ve faced the easiest schedule by DVOA through six weeks.
Let that sink in.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson has the offense in the basement — or near it — in every meaningful offensive statistic, and the offense’s inability to stay on the field has the defense checking out as a middling unit in the majority of metrics.
Cleveland is 21st in defensive DVOA while allowing the 14th-highest EPA per play. For comparison, the Browns respectively ranked second and first in the two metrics last season.
Make no mistake, the Bengals have flaws... especially on defense. The Cincy stop unit has been gashed for the seventh-highest EPA per play and ranks 22nd in defensive DVOA.
Offensively, though, the Bengals have been solid. And, as noted, Joe Burrow has gone toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in near-Cincy wins.
Burrow is second in EPA per play and success rate dating back to Week 2, while Watson is second last and last among the 31 qualified QBs during the same stretch.
Cleveland is no longer sending out an elite stop unit, and I’m confident Burrow and the Bengals can put enough points on the board to pull away from the Browns.
Bengals vs Browns same-game parlay
Bengals -5.5
Zack Moss 25+ rushing yards
Nick Chubb Over 40.5 rushing yards
Cincinnati running back Zack Moss has seen the majority of snaps and carries out of the backfield when healthy this season. He lost a fumble to open the second half in Week 6 against the New York Giants and didn’t see the field thereafter.
Moss is still going to be involved Sunday because backfield mate Chase Brown isn’t a prototypical between-the-tackles rusher, and the two backs spelling each other keeps both fresh and effective. Plus, even with his poor Week 6 showing, Moss has averaged 37.3 rushing yards on 10.5 attempts for the season.
One of the most glaring of the noted Cincinnati defensive shortcomings is on the ground, and four-time Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb (knee) returns from a lengthy absence just in time to capitalize.
Head coach Kevin Stefanski doesn’t have a set workload in mind for the star rusher, but Chubb practiced in full all week.
With a career average of 5.3 yards per rush, I expect Chubb to see enough carries to clear this benchmark. The Bengals have allowed the highest rush success rate and third-highest EPA per rush, after all.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bengals vs Browns odds
Bengals vs Browns live odds
Bengals vs Browns opening odds
- Spread: Cincinnati -4.5 (-110) | Cleveland +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati -250 | Cleveland +195
- Over/Under: Over 44 (-110) | Under 44 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bengals vs Browns betting trend to know
The Cincinnati Bengals are 16-11-2 against the spread as a favorite since the 2022 season, including 2-0 as a road favorite this year. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Browns.
How to watch Bengals vs Browns
| Location: | Huntington Bank Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bengals vs Browns latest injuries
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