Bengals vs Browns Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: DPJ Shines in Njoku's Absense

It’s an all-Ohio edition of Monday Night Football when the Cincinnati Bengals battle the Cleveland Browns, putting plenty of holiday orange on the field for Halloween Night.

These AFC North rivals are headed in opposite directions as the NFL betting season approaches the midway mark, with Cincinnati winning four of five and Cleveland tied for last in the division after a four-game losing skid.

Despite those contrasting results, NFL odds are calling for a close one in the Week 8 finale. I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Bengals at Browns on October 31.

Also, check out our top MNF prop picks for this game, and our favorite Joe Burrow prop plays for Monday night!

Bengals vs Browns best odds

Bengals vs Browns picks and predictions

While the Cincinnati Bengals will be without star receiver Ja’Marr Chase for this primetime game (and maybe more), the Cleveland Browns are also missing a key piece to their passing game in Week 8.

Tight end David Njoku is out of action with an ankle injury, taking away a popular target for quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The big-bodied Njoku was a safety blanket for Brissett and sat tied for second in targets among this receiving corps with 42, reeling in 34 of those balls (tied for team high) for 418 yards.

That blank space in the playbook means there could be ample targets to go around on Monday night, and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones seems primed to pick them up. 

The 6-foot-2 Peoples-Jones has put up some sound numbers in recent weeks, amassing yardage totals of 74, 71, 71 and 50 in October – topping his individual receiving yards prop in each of those showings.

He’s been much more active in the offense, with his snap counts staying about the same, but his targets increasing. Peoples-Jones has been targeted 27 times over the past four contests, snagging 19 of those throws.

Peoples-Jones’ strength and size have been vital to the Browns’ moderate success throwing the football, namely on contested catches and plays over the middle with Cleveland’s rushing prowess setting up play-action opportunities.

On top of those shorter strikes, DPJ is still a threat to break off a big one and has had longs of 37 yards in each of the past two games. A home run like that would pretty much put his modest yardage prop to bed on Monday night. 

Books have Peoples-Jones’ receiving total as low as 40.5, which is the same number he blew away last week with 71 yards – with Njoku in the lineup. Peoples-Jones’ yardage totals have only risen a touch during the past four games, bouncing from 25.5 to 35.5 to 30.5 to 40.5 yards in that span.

And while Cincy is a sturdier pass defense (No. 6 in EPA per dropback) his NFL props total for Week 8 is sitting as low as 40.5 yards despite his uptick in targets and the increased role with Njoku out. 

He was already a go-to option on late downs and a big reason why Cleveland ranks out No. 6 in Offensive DVOA on middle-distance third/fourth downs at Football Outsiders. Peoples-Jones has nine third-down receptions for 137 yards and two fourth-down grabs for 59 yards and will be counted on to make key catches against a stout Bengals defense forcing the 11th-most third downs for opponents. 

As a cherry on top, Peoples-Jones has had solid efforts vs. Cincinnati in his short pro career. In his three battles with the Bengals, the former Michigan Wolverine has eight catches on 10 targets for 180 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown bomb against Cincy in Week 9 last season. 

This Week 8 total varies across the industry, sitting as low as 40.5 (Over -125) and as high as 44.5 yards (Over -120).

My best bet: Donovan Peoples-Jones Over 40.5 receiving yards (-125)

Bengals vs Browns spread analysis

The look-ahead markets weren't too far off the official Week 8 opening line for this AFC North matchup. The summer spread has Cincinnati set as field-goal faves on the road while last week’s lookahead line was as low as Browns +2.5. 

The official spread hit the board at Bengals -3 last Sunday night and that jumped to -3.5 in the first 48 hours of action, with early play backing the hotter team. However, when the Bengals announced a hip injury would keep star WR Ja’Marr Chase out for at least Week 8, this spread slimmed back to the field goal.

While these foes are showing contrasting success, Cleveland hasn’t exactly been blown away in that four-game slide. Outside of a bad outing in New England in Week 6, the Browns have lost the other three games in this span by a combined eight points and four of their five losses overall have been by three points or less.

The Bengals are deserving road chalk given the quality of two-way play from this team. Cincinnati is No. 6 in Team DVOA at Football Outsiders on the season, but I will say its four wins have come against less-than-stellar competition with bottom-tier QB talent. 

The Bengals have beaten Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami, and the New York Jets – a QB list that includes Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater (Tua Tagovailoa was injured in the 1H), and Joe Flacco. Cleveland QB Jacoby Brissett doesn’t pose much of a threat either, especially down TE David Njoku, given this air attack ranks 28th in success rate over the past four outings (40.1%).

According to Caesars Sportsbooks, 80% of bets are taking the Bengals to cover while just 56% of the money is siding with Cincinnati. Covers Consensus shows 72% of picks on Cincy, as of Sunday morning.

Bengals vs Browns Over/Under analysis

The official Week 8 Over/Under hit the board at 47 points, as Cincinnati’s offense has started firing on all cylinders. That number ticked up to 47.5 points before the Chase injury was announced. Along with the Njoku injury for the Browns, and Cleveland’s standout DEs Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney expected to play, this total has shrunk to as low as 45 points.

The Browns' passing game isn’t much to write home about, but Cleveland continues to have success running the ball. Cleveland is No. 2 in Run DVOA and boasts an EPA per handoff of +0.110 – by far tops in the NFL entering Week 8.

The Bengals' offense has pumped out a ton of points in recent weeks, amassing scores of 27, 27, 30, and 35 in their last four wins. The injury to Chase does take away one of QB Joe Burrow’s best targets but Cincy still has reliable options in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, as well as TE Hayden Hurst who is expected to play through a groin injury Monday night.

Cleveland’s defense sits 29th in points allowed per game, which has helped the Over hit in five of the first seven games of 2022. Cincinnati had played Under in its first five games, but thanks to the offensive turnaround the past two outings, the Bengals have gone Over in each of their last two contests.

These Ohio rivals were on a wild run of Overs before finishing below the total in Week 18 last year, posting a 7-0-1 O/U count in the eight games prior to that 21-16 score in the regular season finale. According to WynnBet, 55% of bets are on the Under while 97% of the money is also banking on a low-scoring finish.

Bengals vs Browns betting trend to know

The Bengals have been a solid Under bet away from home since Zac Taylor took over the head coaching gig in 2019. Cincinnati is 9-21 Over/Under (70% Unders) in that span, including a 1-3 O/U count on the road this year. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Browns.

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