Thursday Night Football is nearly here, but there's still time to make some last-minute wagers before the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens take the field at M&T Bank Stadium.
We sat down with Covers betting analysts Jason Logan, Neil Parker, and Sam Farley to get their best NFL picks ahead of kickoff and they didn't hold back! Check out their full Bengals vs. Ravens predictions and analysis below.
Bengals vs Ravens picks
Bengals vs Ravens prediction and best bet: Seeking cover
Pick: Bengals +6.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6-point favorites, but Jason Logan is highly skeptical they'll cover at home tonight.
"Going back to 2015, underdogs have covered at a 56% clip in AFC North divisional games," he explains. "And when you take the bad-news Cleveland Browns out of the equation, the three remaining members are a collective 68% against the spread as a pup in divisional dances."
Jason is especially bearish on Baltimore’s defense, which has sputtered in recent games and isn't nearly as fierce as Mike Macdonald’s stop unit in 2023. The Ravens rank a dismal 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in opponent success rate per pass. They now face a Cincinnati Bengals air attack ranked in the Top 3 in the offensive flip of those advanced measurements.
"While the Ravens covered as 9-point chalk against Denver last Sunday, John Harbaugh’s team is just 5-14-1 ATS (27%) when laying six or more points since 2021," he says. "The Bengals, with Joe Burrow as a massive step up in QB competition, are 11-7 ATS as a dog in that same span including 4-1 ATS when getting six or more points."
Bengals vs Ravens prop pick: Johnson bounces back
Pick: Diontae Johnson Over 21.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Oddsmakers are down on newly acquired Ravens receiver Diontae Johnson, who played just 16 offensive snaps and wasn’t targeted in his team debut last week. However, Neil Parker believes the former Panther will be a much bigger part of the offense tonight.
"The Baltimore brass didn’t bring in Johnson to play decoy," he says. "Although the Ravens have a loaded collection of weapons, Johnson is a versatile receiver who posted a respectable 10.6 aDOT in the inept Carolina offense through seven games to start the year."
Lamar Jackson is nursing a knee injury again this week, so a few of his designed runs could turn into passing attempts, with Johnson being one of the prime recipients this evening.
Read more Bengals vs Ravens TNF prop bets from Neil ahead of game time.
Lamar Jackson prop pick: Pocket passer
Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 49.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Jackson will suit up tonight, but Sam Farley isn't convinced the two-time MVP will be firing on all cylinders.
"The Ravens have been very quiet about his health but the data from Sunday’s win over the Broncos tells me something isn’t right," Sam says. "Jackson had just three carries, his lowest total of the season so far."
Baltimore still put 41 points on the board, but that was with Derrick Henry shouldering the workload on the ground while Jackson was efficient through the air with 280 yards, three TDs, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
Sam expects the Ravens to rely on King Henry again this evening, which is why he feels confident betting Jackson Under 49.5 rushing yards.
"Henry's presence means the team doesn’t need to rely on Jackson’s legs as much," he explains. "It’s a great threat to have, but if Jackson isn’t totally fit, then he doesn’t need to force the issue. The Ravens will be happy to let him be a pocket passer while Henry earns those hard yards on the ground."
Read Sam's Lamar Jackson picks, predictions and best bets for TNF for more in-depth analysis.
Bengals vs Ravens TNF same-game parlay: The Chase is on
Bengals +6.5
Over 52.5
Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown
In addition to expecting the Bengals to cover, Jason is also calling for a high-scoring game and a big outing from three-time Pro Bowler Ja'Marr Chase, who scored twice the last time these teams met in Week 5.
Read more of Jason's analysis in his Bengals vs Ravens predictions.
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Bengals vs Ravens odds
Bengals vs Ravens live odds
Bengals vs Ravens opening odds
- Spread: Cincinnati +6 | Baltimore -6
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +225 | Baltimore -275
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
How to watch Bengals vs Ravens
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Thursday, 11-7, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Bengals vs Ravens latest injuries
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