NFL Best Bets and Player Props for the Conference Championship: Burrow Calls Irwin's Number

With just two games remaining until the Super Bowl, the prop markets in the NFL playoffs are getting as efficient as they've been all season.

For this weekend's NFL player props, I'm squeezing the value out of a plethora of plays that I’m confident will have more value now than the closing number.

Latest NFL Conference Championship prop picks

• Samuel Over 20.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Jennings Under 22.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Irwin Over 8.5 receiving yards (+102)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Kyle’s creativity

If you were on my Christian McCaffrey Over rushing prop last week, you were probably wondering why Elijah Mitchell got all the late carries in a one-score game. It seems to be injury related, as CMC has been limited at practice this week. Although he is going to play, he might not be relied upon as much as we're accustomed to seeing. 

Last week vs. the Cowboys, McCaffrey saw just 67% of the snaps. He told the media he played through the calf injury in the Divisional Round, and now the books have adjusted his rushing totals to as short as 55.5 yards after closing at 70.5 last week. 

With Mitchell also not at 100 percent, Kyle Shanahan will have to get creative against a very good Philadelphia pass defense while starting a rookie quarterback. That could lead to an extra carry or two for Deebo Samuel, who has accounted for 12% of non-QB carries and 16% of rushing yards.

Samuel’s rushing total sits at 20.5 yards after opening at 18.5 and moving as high as 22.5. His rushing total closed at 20.5 yards last week, and with a projection of more rushing work this week, I like the Over.

The receiver got in a full practice Friday and remains healthy. He’s getting carries from the backfield as well as on JET sweeps, so if he gets around five-to-six carries on Sunday, his alt-rushing totals might also be in play.

Deebo Samuel Prop: Over 20.5 rushing yards (-110)

Destination Jennings

As the clear fifth option in the passing game, Jauan Jennings is playing roughly 40% of the snaps of late, with 40% of those coming on rushing plays. His efficiency has also been dwindling in the second half. Of the remaining pass-catchers in the playoffs, Jennings has the worst improvement on targets per routes run in the second half of the season. His 56% route participation, coupled with fewer targets per route run, has me on the fade train.

Who is running more productive routes in the second half of the season? This compares targets per route run over the entire season to TPRR over the past 8 weeks. pic.twitter.com/5adW3pykIH

— Justin Freeman (@JustinFreeman18) January 27, 2023

The matchup is also favoring Under 22.5 receiving yards, which is as low as 15.5 at some books. The Eagles allow just 10.8 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers and also keep the completions to a minimal gain with a league-best 8.7 yards per reception. 

Jennings would likely need three catches to top this number. With a reception total of 2.5 listed at -200 to the Under, the books are projecting less than two catches for the San Francisco receiver.

Jennings also has the worst catch rate of the San Fransisco receiving corps, with a 58% catch rate compared to Brandon Aiyuk (65%), Deebo Samuel (65%), and George Kittle (74%). I’d play this to 20.5.

Jauan Jennings Prop: Under 22.5 receiving yards (-115)

G’Day mate

Looking for a one-and-done? Can I interest you in some Trenton Irwin Overs at 8.5 yards? 

The No. 4 receiver in Cincinnati has consistently been turning his low volume into Overs with a 9-2 O/U mark across 11 games. Some of those games came with injuries to other receivers, but he's still had at least 12 yards in five of the seven games as the fourth wideout on the depth chart. 

Since Week 15, he’s been targeted on 37% of his routes run. With a potential negative game script on Sunday, Burrow might be passing the ball 40-plus times. That means we could see Irwin on the field more than usual, with the Bengals lining up with four receivers spread across the field.

Irwin has just 16 catches on the year (all from Week 8 and later), but 15 of those catches have gone for at least nine yards or were for a short touchdown. Irwin just needs one ball vs. a Kansas City pass defense that ranks 20th in DVOA.

Trenton Irwin Prop: Over 8.5 receiving yards (+102)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Low Sanders

The Philadelphia Eagles have a tough task on the ground running against the 49ers on Sunday, and Miles Sanders is going to struggle to get 15 carries.

Let’s not read too much into last week’s game vs. the Giants, as the game script went positive quickly. However, we can see that Sanders is not going to get 80% of his team’s carries as Jalen Hurts’ rushing total sits at 10.5 (up two carries from last week), and Kenneth Gainwell — and to a lesser extent, Boston Scott — are also in the mix for carries. That's a lot of mouths to feed vs. a San Francisco team that allowed the second-fewest first downs in football this season and tied for the fewest rushing attempts against per game at 22.9.

Another big part of getting carries is inside the 20, where it’s not uncommon for a back to get three or four runs in the red zone on a scoring drive. The problematic part for Sanders is Hurts poaches some of those carries, and we also saw Scott vulture a touchdown early last week. 

During the four first-half touchdowns Philadelphia had last week, there were 13 plays in the red zone. Seven of those were rushes, with just two totes going to Sanders for negative yardage. The possibility of ceding carries near the goal line is just adding to the value of this Under.

The other part is just how difficult it will be for the Eagles to move the sticks and create easy expected rushing downs. Even Seattle's Kenneth Walker finished with 15 carries against San Francisco in a Wild Card game that was close for only three quarters.

There are more outs for Sanders to hit this Under than the Over, and that’s why the market is moving to 13.5 — which I’d still play at -105 or better. 

Miles Sanders Prop: Under 14.5 rushing attempts (-110)

Quez-yes

With few games and a very efficient market, sometimes prop bettors need to search fringe contributors for value, and that’s where I am with Phialdelphia’s Quez Watkins.

The No. 3 receiver is coming off a zero-target game which is fine by me as not many are looking at his markets this week. The Eagles went up 27-0 before the 30-minute mark last week, and the passing game wasn’t even needed.

However, since the Eagles’ bye week in Week 7, the slot receiver has 30 targets (22 catches) for 230 yards across eight games. He’s seen at least two targets in each of those games and has recorded two-plus catches in seven of them with an 11% target share. That’s great news, with a reception total of 1.5 paying plus money for the Over. 

AJ Brown is also dealing with a hip injury, and if the No.1 receiver were to miss any snaps, it would likely be Watkins stepping into 2WR sets. 

This matchup also favors the pass for the Eagles as the 49ers have consistently been one of the hardest teams to run against, and teams have the second-highest opponent pass percentage at 62% against San Francisco — only trailing the Titans.

Quez Watkins Prop: Over 1.5 receptions (+116)

Perine, the Witch and the Wardrobe

Samaje Perine has taken on a bigger role in the Cincinnati Bengals offense, and that was still the case when Joe Mixon returned from injury in Week 14. Perine has seen nearly 50% of the backfield snaps over the Bengals’ last three games and over 40% since Week 14. Mixon’s issues with pass blocking are playing a big role and have been made worse by the injuries to the offensive line.

With the Chiefs sporting a very underrated pass rush and Perine hauling in all five of his targets in the first game that the Bengals were playing without three of their starting O-linemen, it's Perine SZN as a receiver on Sunday.

Perine's five catches against Buffalo came in a game that saw a healthy lead throughout. This means the workload in the passing game could be even bigger on Sunday if Cincinnati is playing from behind. 

Perine quietly finished 19th in RB receptions (38) and 21st in yards (287), playing behind Mixon, who had 60 grabs on the year. This is a Bengals’ offense that loves to get the running backs involved, and with Perine seeing more third-down work and larger snap share thanks to Mixon’s blocking inabilities, the path to another big game receiving is set up well for the No.2 back.

Add in a defense that allows 6.6 receptions to running backs (the most in football), and you got a high-confidence play from me. I’m taking Over 2.5 receptions for Perine at +132 in what could be another high-volume day for the Bengals' backup RB. 

Samaje Perine Prop: Over 2.5 receptions (+132)

• Samuel Over 20.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Jennings Under 22.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Irwin Over 8.5 receiving yards (+102)
• Miles Sanders Under 14.5 rushing attempts (-110)
• Quez Watkins Over 1.5 receptions (+116)
• Samaje Perine Over 2.5 receptions (+132)

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