Despite how opposite their seasons seem to be going, the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are just one game apart in the AFC East and a win for Aaron Rodgers & Co. would propel them into first place.
Will the Jets look more alive with Robert Saleh gone and Nathaniel Hackett no longer calling the plays? Can Josh Allen and the Bills turn things around after last week's loss?
Continue reading for my free NFL picks for player prop selections, and don't miss Jason Logan's full-game Bills vs. Jets predictions for October 14.
Bills vs Jets MNF props
- Dalton Kincaid Under 38.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
- Tyler Conklin Over 26.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
- Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-128 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bills vs Jets MNF props
Prop bet #1: Dalton Kincaid Under 38.5 receiving yards
Second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid has had a disappointing season thus far, tallying just 15 receptions for 166 yards and a touchdown. This comes a year after his very productive rookie season, and after the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, many believed Kincaid would be Josh Allen's preferred target.
He has surpassed this yardage total just twice this season, and both instances required a 25+ yard reception to do so. For reference, Kincaid had just two games all of last year with a 25+ yard reception.
Without target volume and assuming he cannot sustain this stretch of long receptions, Kincaid should miss this mark.
Making matters tougher is that the New York Jets rank second by DVOA against tight ends and allow the third-fewest yards and fourth-fewest receptions to the position.
Prop bet #2: Tyler Conklin Over 26.5 receiving yards
Sticking at the tight end position, Tyler Conklin should be able to hit his mark on Monday night.
Just for comparison Conklin has more receptions (17) and yards (188) than Kincaid, but his prop totals for Monday night are nearly a third less.
Conklin has only gone over this mark twice this season, but both have come in the last three games as he has seen his target share spike in recent weeks (7.7 per game in the last three vs. 2.0 per game in the first two).
Plus, the Buffalo Bills play zone at the fifth-highest rate in the league, and Conklin sports a near-elite 2.65 yards per route run against zone.
Prop bet #3: Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions thrown
Allen was likely the MVP favorite prior to last week's loss to the Texans and his nine-completion game, but one thing he did walk away with was his interception-less streak this season.
Allen has eight touchdowns to his zero interceptions, but he is more than due for one at this point. He had just three games all of last year without a pick and had just seven pick-less games in 2022.
Playing even further into the regression-to-the-mean narrative, the Jets rank eighth-worst so far in interceptions per game a year after ranking fifth-best.
Allen threw four interceptions against the Jets last year and threw another two against them in 2022.
Best Bills vs Jets bonus
Get $300 bonus bets when you win with FanDuel!
New users can create an account at FanDuel and place your first bet of $5+ on the NFL — and get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet wins!
Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
See FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
