It's not been a pretty start to the season for the Denver Broncos, particularly the offense, which ranks among the worst through three weeks.
However, opportunity knocks on Sunday vs. a banged-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary, and my Broncos vs. Buccaneers predictions believe Bo Nix will answer the bell.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 3 showdown on September 22.
Broncos vs Buccaneers prediction
My best bet
Bo Nix Over 184.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Bo Nix and this highly-regarded crop of rookie quarterbacks has been highly disappointing to start the year. However, the Denver Broncos pivot made big strides from Week 1 to Week 2, and his passing yards prop of 181.5 is too low ahead of Week 3's matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Don't forget that Nix looked extremely sharp in preseason play, completing 76.7% of his passes for 205 yards with a passer rating of 116.7. He struggled mightily in Week 1, but playing on the road at Lumen Field against defensive guru Mike Macdonald would have been a brutal task for any QB in their first career start.
The former Oregon product threw two interceptions last week but still finished with 246 passing yards against a tough Steelers stop unit, and his teammates didn't make things easy, dropping three passes. While Nix's completion percentage was just 57.1% in Week 2, his adjusted completion percentage was an impressive 74.2% and his average depth of target surged from 6.0 yards in Week 1 to 9.8 yards against Pittsburgh.
This week, Nix takes on a Buccaneers defense that ranks 28th in the league in dropback success rate. The Bucs faced a Commanders offense that rarely threw downfield in their season opener, but they were exposed last week against Detroit, surrendering 324 passing yards.
It doesn't help that the Bucs are extremely banged up on defense. All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield will likely miss his second-straight game due to an ankle injury and three key defensive linemen have also been absent from practice with various ailments.
In addition, the Bucs are 6.5-point favorites for this contest, which could mean a negative game script for the Broncos and plenty of pass attempts from Nix.
Broncos vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Bo Nix Over 184.5 passing yards
Broncos +7.5
Over 39.5
Since I'm expecting a strong performance from Nix, it makes sense to back the Broncos to cover, especially if we push this spread past the key number of 7.
Although Baker Mayfield has been terrific so far this season, the Broncos have a far better secondary than the Commanders and Lions. Denver's defensive weakness has been against the run but the Bucs have one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, so they won't be able to take advantage.
Tampa Bay's defense has allowed just 18.0 points per game, but they might be a lot worse than that number would suggest. The Bucs were fortunate that Washington averaged just 1.6 air yards per completion in Week 1, while Detroit went 1-for-7 in the red zone last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Broncos vs Buccaneers odds
Broncos vs Buccaneers live odds
Broncos vs Buccaneers opening odds
- Spread: Denver +7 (-115) | Tampa Bay -7 (-105)
- Moneyline: Denver +245 | Tampa Bay -305
- Over/Under: Over 40 | Under 40
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Broncos vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Broncos beat the Lions 20-16 last week and are now 2-0 while covering both games by double-digits.
- The Broncos lost 13-6 to the Steelers last week but covered. They also cashed the Over in Week 1 against Seattle despite just 132 passing yards.
- Although Baker Mayfield ranks second in the NFL in passer rating (129.1), Pro Football Focus has 12 quarterbacks ahead of him in passing grade (69.0).
Broncos vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
Denver has hit the 4Q game total Over in 12 of its last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Buccaneers.
Broncos vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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