Browns vs Chiefs Preseason Picks and Predictions: Chiefs Backups Give Browns All They Can Handle

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs will look to wrap up their preseason on a positive note as they host the Cleveland Browns on Saturday afternoon.

The Chiefs started the preseason with a loss, but bounced back with an emphatic 38-10 win over the Arizona Cardinals last weekend. The Browns are coming off an 18-18 tie with the Philadelphia Eagles in their last outing.

The Browns have hinted that they might give their starters a bit more playing time than the Chiefs in the final week of exhibition play which is why the NFL odds sit where they do. We’ll break down whether that’ll be enough for Cleveland to cover the spread in our free NFL picks and predictions for Browns vs. Chiefs on August 26.

Browns vs Chiefs odds

Browns vs Chiefs predictions

Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski seems to think his team could use some more fine tuning before the regular season begins. That’s why he’s announced that the Browns starters should get about 20-25 plays on the field in Saturday’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.

That means we’ll be seeing first-team players for at least a couple series on both sides of the ball for Cleveland. It seems as though this will include quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has only thrown three passes so far in the preseason.

Those intentions give the Browns an advantage over the Chiefs, who are unlikely to play some key players, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes. There’s no guarantee Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and other big names won’t get a series, but Kansas City already knows what it has in those players, and will likely be looking to settle some of its backup positions and final roster slots with Saturday’s game.

That will include what has become a fierce battle for the backup quarterback position behind Mahomes. Both Shane Buechele and veteran Blaine Gabbert have shown that they can play at this level in their preseason appearances, and it’s still unclear who will be the No. 2 heading into the regular season. Buechele has completed 21 of 28 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns so far in his exhibition games, while Gabbert is 11 for 16 with 179 yards and three scores.

With the competition still open between those two, it’s possible that Andy Reid will want to give both the maximum number of opportunities and simply sit Mahomes on Saturday. That’s a fairly good reason to make the Browns a favorite in this game, which is exactly what sportsbooks have done.

Just how big an advantage does Cleveland have here? The Browns starters won’t be playing all that much, and the team hasn’t looked great in its preseason slate so far. Cleveland has yet to score more than 21 points in a game, and only squeaked out a single win against the Jets in the Hall of Fame Game at the beginning of the month.

Now, the Browns get to tangle with the Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs may not play all of their talent, but it’s likely that the offensive line and selected starters on both sides of the ball will get some run. And we’ve already seen Kansas City put up a ton of points in the preseason even with their backups in the game.

I’m not brave enough to bet on the Chiefs to win this game outright, though I think that’s a distinct possibility. However, we can get more than a field goal on the spread here, and that’s too many points to be giving Kansas City. I’m taking the Chiefs and the points.

My best bet: Chiefs +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Browns vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

The Browns opened as a three-point favorite in Saturday’s game. Since then, the consensus spread has moved to Cleveland -3.5, and it’s hard to find a book offering anything else as its main line. 

Cleveland has played well against the spread so far in the preseason, putting up a 2-1 ATS record. The Chiefs are 1-1 ATS so far in their exhibition matchups.

I’ve already outlined above why I like the Chiefs on the spread. Yes, Cleveland will probably play its best players for longer than Kansas City, but it’s not as though that will represent even half of the game. Moreover, some Chiefs starters will also play, and their backups seem more capable, especially in key positions. This will be a close game, and since we’re getting over the key number of three points, I’m backing the Chiefs.

The total on this game opened at just 38 points. However, it has jumped since then, and now sits at 41.5 at most sites. The majority of books have equal -110 action on both the Over and the Under.

The Chiefs offense has been humming so far in the preseason, and the Over is 2-0 in their games. Cleveland is dead even on the total so far, with the Over going 1-1-1 in their three games.

I’m sure the total on this game jumped so quickly due to the news that the Browns planned to give their starters some significant time on the field. We also know that the Chiefs can score no matter who they put out there, so we have two teams that seem poised to light up the scoreboard – at least by preseason standards. 

Still, the 41.5 number scares me a bit, and I’m not that comfortable predicting a ton of points in any exhibition game where teams will mostly be showing their base sets. I don’t like the Under, either – I’m going to stay away from the total in this game.

Browns vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread in their last four preseason games. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Chiefs.

Browns vs Chiefs game info

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