Browns vs Texans Odds, Picks, and Wild Card Predictions: Singletary Ready For Launch

It's not the NFL playoff opener we expected, but it's one that has plenty of intriguing storylines surrounding it. Our NFL betting picks for Browns vs Texans focus on a player prop that will be key to one team finding success on Saturday.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Jan 13, 2024 • 13:51 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Who had plans to watch an NFL playoff game in Houston this year?

Anyone…?

I’m sure the Houston Texans are as surprised as the rest of us that they’re hosting the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Wild Card Round later today.

After a topsy-turvy Week 18, the Texans earned the AFC South title and the home postseason game that goes along with it. Their Super Bowl odds sit at +3,500, and oddsmakers are giving the nod to the visitor in this game, setting Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite in the Wild Card odds. 

I break down the NFL odds for this afternoon’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Browns at Texans on Saturday, January 13.

Be sure to check out our Browns vs. Texans props and C.J. Stroud spotlight as well! 

Browns vs Texans odds

Browns vs Texans predictions

If the Houston Texans don’t want young C.J. Stroud to crack under the playoff pressure, they’ll need running back Devin Singletary to share that weight in the Wild Card Round.

The Cleveland Browns defense will look to come after the first-year QB, boasting one of the nastiest pass rushes in the land, and in order to keep Cleveland honest, Houston will go with a healthy dose of the ground game.

Singletary didn’t do much against Cleveland back in Week 16, picking up only 44 yards on nine carries, but that had more to do with the Texans falling behind so quickly without Stroud under center and having to abandon the run game early on.

Singletary still picked up 4.9 yards per carry and had a nice 17-yard gain in the first quarter that could have been a home run play if not for a shoe-string trip-up from the Browns safety.

If Cleveland’s defense does have a glaring soft spot, it’s slowing down the run. The Browns do rank No. 1 in run-stop win rate at ESPN, but they’re middle of the road in EPA allowed per handoff on the year with that advanced metric sliding back to 20th since Week 12.

The Browns have given up 65 yards or more to a running back in four of the seven games in that stretch, including getting gashed for 80-plus yards in three of those outings. Cleveland has allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the past three weeks.

Singletary started the season slow but has been a beast in the second half of the schedule, marching for 60 yards or more in six of the past nine outings. He’s knocked Dameon Pierce from atop the depth chart and is getting the bulk of snaps and carries.

He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry since Week 9, just shy of 69 yards per game, and has a great shot to top his rushing yards total in Saturday’s playoff game. Bookies have Singletary’s rushing yards prop parked at 63.5 yards (Over -114).

Wild Card player projections are positive for Singletary, with many models coming in well above 70 yards on the ground this Saturday. There’s a ceiling of 85.6 yards while my number is a bit more tempered, forecasted at 72 rushing yards.

My best bet: Devin Singletary Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Browns vs Texans same-game parlay

Devin Singletary Over 63.5 rushing yards

Amari Cooper anytime TD

Elijah Moore Over 29.5 receiving yards

Singletary shares the offensive load with Stroud, with projections pointing to a big day on the ground vs. a softer Browns run stop.

Amari Cooper caught two touchdowns vs. Houston in Week 16 and will be Flacco’s favorite option.

Elijah Moore had a quiet day vs. Houston earlier in the season but he’s also been a top target for Flacco. His 29.5-yard receiving total is a notable downtick from his standard O/U of 35.5 the previous two games. Projections sit closer to 40 yards for the WR.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Browns vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis

Some early spreads had Cleveland as a 1.5-point road favorite in the Wild Card Round but the majority of sportsbooks opened with a 2.5-point spread, which has stayed steady most of the week.

There have been a handful of operators flirting with Houston +3, but immediate buyback on the home side knocked that line back below the field goal. According to Covers Consensus, 59% of early picks are laying the points with the Browns.

Bettors don’t have to go too far back to see how these clubs match up, as Houston hosted Cleveland back in Week 16. The Browns scored a 36-22 victory as closing 3-point faves, but the Texans were without stud rookie QB C.J. Stroud for that game, instead left with backup Davis Mills and Case Keenum under center.

Just how Stroud will perform under the playoff pressure is the big question heading into Saturday. Traditionally, quarterbacks making their first postseason appearance aren’t great, going 27-50 SU and 30-46-1 against the spread (39%) since 2002.

Adding to the weight of this game is Stroud facing is the best defense in the NFL. Cleveland closed the regular season as the top-rated stop unit in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed, as well as finished No. 2 in Defensive DVOA at FTN.

While the Browns have seen a decisive split in their defensive success between home and away (13.9 points allowed per home game vs. 29.6 ppg on the road), Cleveland is the toughest stop unit Stroud has faced since losing 30-6 to the New York Jets in the rain back in Week 14.

The Browns, who also ranked No. 1 in EPA allowed per dropback and success rate allowed per pass, will come after the Texans’ QB. Cleveland owns one of the best pass rushes in the land, collecting 49 sacks and ranking No. 2 in pass rush win rate at ESPN.

As for the other quarterback in this game, the Browns are hoping Joe Flacco’s fountain of youth continues to flow this weekend.

The veteran passer was a late-season pick-up for Cleveland after QB1 Deshaun Watson was lost for the year and he’s given this passing game life and helped push the Browns to the postseason and go 5-1 ATS in his six starts.

Flacco finished Week 16 with 368 yards on 27 of 42 passing, connecting for three touchdowns but throwing two interceptions against the Texans.

Houston’s defense has been one of the better stop units against the run but finished 20th in EPA allowed per dropback and allowed the sixth most yards per attempt (7.0). The Texans do have a respectable pass rush, sitting fifth in pressure rate despite blitzing fewer than all but four teams in the NFL. They go against a stellar Browns o-line rated No. 4 in pass block win rate.

The Over/Under total for this Wild Card contest opened as low as 43 points on Sunday and quickly jumped to highs of 45 at some books before the market settled to 44.5 O/U. According to Covers Consensus, 55% of picks are taking the Over.

Cleveland was one of the better Over bets on the year, finishing 11-6 O/U – thanks in large part to that late-season surge on offense that closed the campaign on a 6-1 O/U streak. The team’s lopsided defensive results on the road led to a perfect 8-0 Over mark as a visitor.

Houston was one of the best Under plays in the regular season at 6-11 O/U, finishing 2-6 O/U in its last eight games against weaker offensive opposition. That Week 16 result was one of two Overs in that span. The Texans were 3-6 O/U inside NRG Stadium.

Browns vs Texans betting trend to know

The Houston Texans have gone Over in only six of their last 20 games (-9.40 Units / -43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Texans.

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Browns vs Texans game info

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Opening odds: Texans +1.5, 43 O/U

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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