Early Buccaneers vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks, and Odds for MNF Week 9

NFL Week 9 betting wraps up at Arrowhead Stadium when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

This NFC versus AFC contest looked like it could be a good one before the events of Week 7. Then Tampa Bay lost its top two receivers and dropped to 4-4 with back-to-back losses.

The look-ahead line was Kansas City by a touchdown but with the Bucs broken and the Chiefs undefeated, this spread has crept to -9.5 as of Monday afternoon.

I dissect that spread as well as the total for Monday Night Football and give my early leans and best NFL picks for Buccaneers vs. Chiefs on November 4.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs predictions

Early spread lean
Buccaneers +9.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Kansas City Chiefs faced a similar spread in Week 8 and couldn’t get bettors to the counter, coming up short as 8.5-point chalk in a 27-20 road win over Las Vegas. 

Kansas City’s offense had a great day, at least by the standards of most teams, but it wasn’t enough to cover that pile of points. The Chiefs enter Week 9 ranked 10th in EPA per play but can’t seem to finish drives with a touchdown, boasting a TD rate of just 51.85% inside the red zone (24th).

As for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attack, there are obvious holes with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out with injuries. Quarterback Baker Mayfield did his best with what he had left in the Week 8 loss to Atlanta, throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns but also getting picked off three times.

The Chiefs defense is among the best in the league, rating 10th in EPA allowed per play. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a master at disguising coverage and bringing pressure, boosting KC to third in pressure rate and seventh in blitz percentage. 

However, Mayfield has made himself one of the better QBs at battling blitz the past two years and is able to escape pressure with his sneaky mobility.

Tampa Bay has managed to hang around and then show fight in the fourth quarter. The Bucs average 8.8 points while surrendering just 3.4 in the final frame and sit sixth in EPA per play and third in EPA allowed per play in the 4Q.

I’d really like to have the Bucs at +10 for this Monday game, and maybe it gets there. But, I will lean toward Tampa Bay as a big dog in Week 9.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 44.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

As mentioned, the Chiefs put together a solid offensive showing in Week 8 and can build on that in Week 9. Not only is tight end Travis Kelce starting to roll but this will be DeAndre Hopkins' first full week of practice in Andy Reid’s offense and he’ll play a bigger role on Monday night.

The Bucs passing defense is suspect. It puffed up its numbers against rookies earlier in the season but has been exposed against capable QBs, with Kirk Cousins and Lamar Jackson lighting them up the past two games.

Kansas City’s defense has disrupted opponents for an average of only 17.6 points per game but has faced a lot of slower-tempo attacks through the opening half of the schedule, leading to four Unders in the last five games. 

All but two of the Chiefs’ opponents rank in the back half of plays per game and five of those foes sit in the bottom half of the league in terms of pacing and no-huddle usage. The Bucs and new offensive Liam Coen likes to push the tempo, sitting sixth in average players per game.

This total opened at 44.5 points and even with the Bucs missing some key targets, there’s room for plenty of passing and points.

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