The NFL Week 5 odds open with a southern showdown when the Atlanta Falcons welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football.
Tampa Bay is one of the bigger surprises of the 2024 season, sitting at 3-1 while Baker Mayfield lights up opposing defenses.
However, Mayfield could be missing some top targets Thursday night, and my Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions explain how you can take advantage of that by betting the Over on Cade Otton's receiving yards when making your NFL picks for Thursday, October 3.
Buccaneers vs Falcons TNF prediction
My best bet
Cade Otton Over 27.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' air attack does a great job spreading the ball around, with Baker Mayfield finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at a near-even target share. Also seeing plenty of passes is tight end Cade Otton.
Otton has drawn a combined 17 targets in the past two games, snatching 13 of those balls for outputs of 47 and 52 receiving yards. Those efforts blasted Over his receiving yard totals of 20.5 and 22.5 yards and has his Week 5 number jumping up to 27.5 O/U against Atlanta.
The 6-foot-5 TE is on the field a lot for the Bucs, taking part in 95% of snaps in last weekend’s win over Philadelphia. He’s run routes on more than 49% of total snaps and is the seventh most targeted tight end in the league.
Player projections for Week 5 are very positive for Otton, with the bulk of models sitting above 27.5, ranging from 25 yards to a high of 37. My number comes out to 32.5, but this could be conservative considering Tampa's depth chart entering TNF.
Evans is dinged up, while other WRs Trey Palmer, Kameron Johnson, and Jalen McMillan are all nursing injuries heading into Thursday. The matchup against the Atlanta Falcons also leans into Otton’s strengths.
The Falcons are running a high rate of zone coverage and playing deep to avoid giving up big plays over the top. That leaves Atlanta susceptible to shorter strikes into space under that deep zone.
The Falcons allowed opposing TEs to record at least three receptions for 27 yards or more in the first three games of 2024 and caught a break with New Orleans TE Taysom Hill going down with injury in Week 4 (TE2 Juwan Johnson has two catches for 13 yards).
Otton rates out much better vs. zone coverage throughout his career and has played some of his best games in Mercedes Benz Stadium, with twin 43-yard performances in his two career stops in Atlanta.
Buccaneers vs Falcons TNF same-game parlay
Buccaneers +1.5
Cade Otton 3+ receptions
Cade Otton 25+ receiving yards
This line is a weird one, and Thursday games produce strange results... but I have faith in the Bucs' defense causing chaos in the ATL.
Otton is projected to have more than three grabs and he’s been very involved in the Tampa Bay offense the past two games. Lack of depth at WR could give the TE even more looks on Thursday.
Otton is projected for more than 30 yards receiving and the Falcons’ soft zone has watched three TEs already go for 27 or more yards this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Buccaneers vs Falcons odds
Buccaneers vs Falcons live odds
Buccaneers vs Falcons opening odds
- Spread: Tampa Bay +2.5 (-110) | Atlanta -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +130 | Atlanta -154
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Buccaneers vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened as a 2.5-point home favorite for Thursday Night Football, and money on the Bucs quickly knocked this spread down to -1.5. Covers Consensus shows 51% of spread picks on the Falcons.
- The Over/Under hit the board at 43.5 points and has stayed steady there this week. According to Covers Consensus, 66% of total picks are siding with the Over inside the fast indoor turf at Mercedes Benz Stadium.
Buccaneers vs Falcons betting trend to know
Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles is 4-8 Over/Under in NFC South matchups and has allowed more than 21 points in only four of those 12 divisional games. That includes a 2-4 O/U count in 2023. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Falcons.
Buccaneers vs Falcons game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
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Buccaneers vs Falcons weather
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