The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium to face the Atlanta Falcons in Thursday Night Football this evening.
Kirk Cousins led the Falcons to a win against the Saints last week, and I'm betting on him to lead the charge as I dive into the NFL player props for the Week 5 showdown. Here are my three favorite NFL picks and Buccaneers vs. Falcons predictions for October 3.
Buccaneers vs Falcons TNF props
- Cousins Over 228.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
- Pitts Under 29.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
- Otton Over 28.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Buccaneers vs Falcons TNF props
Prop bet #1: Kirk Cousins Over 228.5 passing yards
Kirk Cousins threw for just 155 yards against Pittsburgh's stingy defense in the Atlanta Falcons' season opener, but he's since thrown for 241, 230, and 238 passing yards in the last three weeks.
Cousins is fresh off a game against the Saints, where he had a season-high 35 pass attempts, and with running back Bijan Robinson hindered by a hamstring injury, he should continue to throw the ball in this matchup. Especially with the Bucs 24th in the league in defensive dropback success rate and still missing All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr.
With the Falcons installed as slim 1.5-point home faves, this contest should be close enough for Atlanta not to lean on the ground game, while the Mercedes-Benz Stadium will provide the ideal environment for airing the ball out.
Prop bet #2: Kyle Pitts Under 29.5 receiving yards
While I expect Cousins to air it out, I've lost faith in Kyle Pitts ever becoming a significant contributor to Zac Robinson's offense. The former first-round tight end had just 26 receiving yards in Week 1, followed by 20 yards in Week 2.
He racked up 59 receiving yards against the Chiefs in Week 3 but that was due to a 50-yard play and he was limited to just two catches in that contest. He came crashing back to earth last week, failing to pick up a single reception while being on the field for 68% of Atlanta's offensive snaps — his lowest number this season.
Pitts was often employed out wide earlier in his career, but Robinson tends to use him inline, which doesn't play to his strengths. With Pitts becoming an afterthought in the offense, fade him against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that's done a decent job against tight ends this year.
Prop bet #3: Cade Otton Over 28.5 receiving yards
While I'm fading Atlanta's highly-regarded tight end, I do like the lesser-known Cade Otton. Tampa Bay's TE rarely comes off the field and has seen his target-share soar in recent weeks.
Otton racked up seven receptions for 47 yards in Week 3 and hauled in six of nine targets for 52 yards last week. The Bucs have struggled to run the ball efficiently, so expect them to rely on their passing game and Baker Mayfield.
The Falcons do a good job of defending deep plays thanks to safety Jessie Bates III, but they tend to allow chunk plays underneath. They'll also be missing starting linebacker Troy Andersen who often lines up against opposing tight ends. Expect Otton to take advantage of that and expose those openings underneath.
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