Cardinals vs Texans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 11: Cardinals Spread Their Wings

Week 11’s matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans could be the biggest bag of cats on the NFL odds board.

Houston continues to climb the power ratings, winning three of its last four games including a 30-27 upset of Cincinnati this past weekend. The Texans enter this homestand with a 5-4 record SU and ATS, in pursuit of an improbable playoff spot.

Arizona hits the road with franchise quarterback Kyler Murray in tow after he made his season debut in a win over Atlanta last Sunday. Murray’s return snapped a six-game losing skid for the Cardinals, drastically changing the way the NFL Week 11 odds think about this non-conference clash.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for this head-scratcher and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Cardinals at Texans on November 19.

Cardinals vs Texans odds

Cardinals vs Texans predictions

Sure, it’s only one game. But you’ve got to feel better about this Arizona Cardinals offense with Kyler Murray back at the wheel.

Through the first nine games of the 2023 season, the Cardinals struggled to score without their face of the franchise on the field. Arizona owned an average of just 0.275 points per play heading into Week 10 – third lowest in the NFL.

Murray kickstarted the offense in the win over Atlanta, lifting that metric to 0.417 points per play – 11th highest among Week 11 results. Arizona, which was 29th in EPA per play the previous nine outings, finished last week ranked 17th in that advanced stat.

It’s not a massive uptick and there’s room for improvement.

The Cardinals had 20 first downs but finished just 3 for 11 on third-down conversions. Arizona scored 25 points – its most since Week 3 – but left points on the table with a 2-for-4 day in the red zone. They were also flagged for 11 penalties which added up to 112 yards against, which was the most by any team in Week 10.

“I knew there was going to be a little bit of that,” Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon told the media of Murray's return. “It’s his first time doing a lot of that stuff and I’m sure as we keep getting going, he’ll get more and more comfortable with how we’re operating.”

Arizona is primed to take another step forward against the Houston Texans in Week 11. The Texans aren’t a great stop unit and have been especially porous the past two games, getting into shootouts with the Bucs and Bengals and allowing a total of 64 points against.

Houston sits 23rd in first downs allowed, 24th in third-down defense, and 24th in opponent passer rating. The Texans don’t pose much pressure, recording only 21 total sacks, and while they did pick off Joe Burrow twice in Week 10, they have just 12 total takeaways on the season.

Murray isn’t the only reason for the Cardinals’ optimistic outing in Week 10. Arizona also got back RB James Conner after he sat more than a month due to a knee injury. Conner recorded 73 rushing yards on 16 carries, complementing the passing connection of Murray to TE Trey McBride, who finished with 131 yards on eight receptions.

If the Cardinals can get back some bodies on the offensive line for Week 11, this will be the strongest this unit has been all season – especially with Murray giving them a massive upgrade at quarterback.

Houston, on the other hand, has injuries at all levels of the defense and will be without starting LB Denzel Perryman for three games due to a dirty helmet hit in Week 10. That potentially takes away two of the Texans' top three tacklers if fellow LB Henry To'oTo'o can’t clear concussion protocols.

Arizona’s team total sits at 21.5 points (Over -102), which feels much too short considering the instant impact Murray had last week, the health of Arizona’s top weapons, and Houston hemorrhaging points the past two weeks.

My best bet: Cardinals team total Over 21.5 (-102 at Pinnacle)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Cardinals vs Texans same-game parlay

Cardinals team total Over 21.5

Kyler Murray Over 29.5 rushing yards

James Connor anytime TD

+335 at DraftKings

The Cardinals offense has its two most dynamic weapons back in Murray and Conner and is facing a bad Houston defense.

Murray showed he’s ready to run in his season debut and we can expect to see his number called for more carries in Week 11. Conner is back, and projections have him among the running backs most likely to find the end zone in Week 11.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cardinals vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead line for this NFC vs. AFC affair was at Houston -4 before the results from Week 10.

With Houston stunning Cincinnati as a touchdown underdog and Murray making Arizona competitive against Atlanta, the official Week 11 opener hit the board as high as Texans -6 on Sunday night.

Early action showed up on Arizona on Monday and punched this point spread down to as low as Houston -4 on Tuesday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus, 70% of early picks are on the home side. My NFL power ratings installed Houston as a 6-point home chalk before adjusting for the Cardinals’ improvement at QB with Murray under center.

Arizona did look much stronger on offense in Week 10 with the former No. 1 overall pick back in the red and white for the first time since suffering a season-ending knee injury last December.

Murray passed for 239 yards and added 33 yards rushing on six carries, with some designed runs showing the Cards aren’t going to go slow with their dual-threat QB. Arizona also returned RB James Conner in that win over the Falcons, which makes Week 1 the most dynamic Arizona’s attack has been all season.

The Cardinals will need all the offense they can muster considering how well the Texans are clicking with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. A week removed from a 470-yard passing performance, Stroud passed for 356 yards in the win over the Bengals.

Houston has scored a total of 69 points against solid defenses in Cincinnati and Tampa Bay the past two weeks, improving to 10th in EPA per play and ninth in offensive DVOA on the season. The Texans have needed those points to overcome the defense allowing 64 points against in those wins.

Arizona’s defense sits near the bottom of the league in most basic and advanced metrics, including 30th in EPA allowed per play. The Cardinals aren’t disruptive, with a pass rush producing the third-lowest pressure rate and blitzing only less than 21% of dropbacks. Arizona has just 10 total takeaways on the season as well.

The Over/Under number for Week 11 opened at 48 points and jumped to as high as 49.5 before money on the Under slimmed this number to 47.5 points, as of Tuesday. Covers Consensus is showing 59% of early picks on the Over.

The Cardinals were 5-4 Over/Under on the season before Murray returned. The 25-23 win over Atlanta topped the closing Week 10 total of 44 points. Arizona runs one of the quicker tempos with a play every 27.5 seconds.

Houston plays an even faster pace, at 27.4 seconds per snap, and boasts a 4-5 O/U count, having gone Over the number in its last two games.

Cardinals vs Texans betting trend to know

This Week 11 spread marks just the fifth time Houston has a been a betting favorite since 2021, with the Texans going 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in the previous four games laying points. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Texans.

Cardinals vs Texans game info

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