Chargers vs Browns Same Game Parlay for Week 9: Justin, Jameis Exchange Blows in Cleveland

With Justin Herbert finding his grove in L.A. and Jameis Winston an improvement over Deshaun Watson, our Chargers vs. Browns SGP picks expect both teams to do damage on offense.

Neil Parker • Betting Analyst

Oct 31, 2024 • 14:11 ET • 4 min read

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The Los Angeles Chargers head to Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, November 3, with the two AFC clubs looking to make it two in a row following their Week 8 victories.

Cleveland received a huge boost under center from Jameis Winston, and he’s a primary reason our Chargers vs. Browns predictions and NFL picks are calling for this game to go Over the number Sunday afternoon.

Chargers vs Browns SGP for Week 9

Over 42.5

Justin Herbert Over 19.5 completions

Jameis Winson Over 5.5 rushing yards

+425 at bet365

Over 42.5
Justin Herbert Over 19.5 completions
Jameis Winson Over 5.5 rushing yards

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is finding a midseason groove, with his 8.2 yards per attempt and 0.217 EPA per play the past three weeks well above his respective 6.4 and -0.044 marks through the first four games of the season.

He also posted his two highest weekly passing PFF grades the past two weeks while posting a healthy 8.9 aDoT and connecting for nine big-time throws. He’s also completed 20+ passes in all three games following the Week 5 bye.

The improved play from Herbert is also a primary reason for the Over 42.5, and the Chargers have climbed to 21.3 points per game and ranking 15th in EPA per play the past three weeks after scoring just 17 per with a 23rd-best mark in the metric through the first four games.

I’m also anticipating the Cleveland Browns to build on last week’s breakout offensive showing with Jameis Winston behind center. Prior No. 1 QB Deshaun Watson had the Browns averaging just 15.5 points per game, and his 5.3 YPA and 63.4 PFF passing grade were eyesores.

For comparison, Herbert sports a 78.8 PFF passing grade, and Winston went good for an 80.3 mark in his first start while airing it out for an impressive 334 yards with a 7.9 YPA and 11.9 aDoT last week against the Ravens.

This total is definitely giving both defenses their warranted due respect. Still, I don’t think these Week 9 odds are accounting for the improved play from Herbert in addition to the upgrade Winston is behind center for the Browns.

I also value the early steam to the Over that drove this number up as high as 44 at a number of shops.

Lastly, Winston is a capable runner and scrambler out of the pocket. While I’m not anticipating him being featured in the run game, this is also a low total against a Chargers defense that allows 5.2 yards per carry to opposing QBs. L.A. has also allowed a QB to record 6+ rushing yards in six of seven games.

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Neil Parker

Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

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