It's time to get spooky as Week 9 kicks off on Halloween, and I'm here to unveil the newest horror movie, "Nightmare on Props Street."
It's definitely one of those direct-to-DVD flicks, but it's focused on the highs and lows of betting NFL player props, as my 8-2 stretch has since been followed by a horrific 2-8 dumpster fire.
However, unlike standard scary movies, I'm not going to flee up the stairs; I'm taking this demon head-on, trusting in myself and the power of c...rummy defenses getting shredded by star players.
This isn't a horror film; it's a redemption story — and my NFL picks for Week 9 feature some star receivers terrorizing bad defenses, Josh Downs getting revitalized, Chuba Hubbard's final fling, and Matthew Stafford instilling fear once again now that his weapons are all back.
Latest NFL prop picks
Hubbard o60.5 rush yards
(-114 at FanDuel)
Downs o60.5 rec yards
(-110 at bet365)
Stafford o238.5 pass yards
(-114 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 9
Chuba Hubbard Over 60.5 rushing yards
This number has been all over the place, opening at some outlets as low as 53.5, then shooting instantly up as high as 66.5 — but FanDuel is still offering a good number at 60.5.
Chuba Hubbard isn't the flashiest running back but he's quietly had a strong season, averaging 82.7 rushing yards per game (on 5.4 yards per carry) since Week 2, with his 523 yards third among all RBs in that span.
He and the Carolina Panthers face the New Orleans Saints, who have allowed more than 111 rushing yards per game to RBs this year, but it's been a tale of two months: They allowed 96.5 rushing yards per game in September (with three of four opponents falling below 90)... but that number ballooned to 190.8 per game in October, with two teams going for 225+.
After getting just 16 total carries in his first two games, Hubbard has since seen his weekly workload sit between 15-18 attempts. Carolina could see star rookie Jonathan Brooks debut this week, but I'm expecting the 1-7 Panthers to ease him in — and with Hubbard's rush attempts total currently at 14.5 (juiced to the Over), books are also planning on Chuba to get his usual allotment of totes.
Industry projections have ranged as high as 72 yards for Hubbard on Sunday, giving me a little extra confidence in jumping on this number — and giving you a reason to watch more than eight seconds of this less-than-stellar matchup.
Pick made on 11-1
Josh Downs Over 60.5 receiving yards
The Indianapolis Colts announced that Joe Flacco will be starting under center this Sunday — and you know what that means:
It's #JoshDownsszn... at least for one week.
Flacco vs. Anthony Richardson is a true trick-or-treat for betting on Josh Downs odds, with a stark contrast in his usage (per PFF):
- With Richardson (61 snaps): 29.5% target rate for nine catches and 145 yards.
- With Flacco (84 snaps): 34.5% target rate, 23 catches, 206 yards.
It's also worth noting that 69 of those 145 yards with Richardson came on one play last week; with the veteran Flacco under center, Downs is a much more consistent passing option and he now gets to face a Minnesota Vikings defense that is vulnerable in the secondary.
The Vikings give up the second-most yards per game to wide receivers (204.9) and play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league — but are in the bottom half of the league in yards per reception and yards per target while in zone.
Minnesota has also struggled against the opponent's top receiver, allowing 100+ yards to opposing WR1s in five of their last six games — with the exceptions being two Texans receivers getting 94 and 81.
Downs has been the go-to guy for the Colts against zone defense this year, earning a nearly 32% target rate (third-highest among all WR), so I'm looking at him to again continue the string of productive days for primary passing targets.
Pick made on 11-1
Matthew Stafford Over 238.5 passing yards
The gang is all back for the Los Angeles Rams offense — and in case you forgot how scary that can be, they gave you a taste last week against the Vikings: Matthew Stafford threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns and Kyren Williams ran for 97 yards as the Rams dropped 30 on a tough Minnesota defense.
Facing a much less tough Seattle Seahawks stop unit this week, I'm backing Stafford to have another big game and top his passing yardage total.
When I say that gang is all back, I'm referring to the return of star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The duo combined for 157 yards last week, and Stafford has averaged 305 yards over his last eight games when both are in the lineup, recording 279+ yards in seven of those contests.
He also has a grab matchup in a Seattle defense that is among the league's worst. The Seahawks gave up just 158 passing yards per game through the first three weeks... but that came against Bo Nix (in his NFL debut), Jacoby Brissett, and a combo pack of Tim Boyle and Skylar Thompson. Opposing QBs have averaged 264 passing yards per game in the five weeks since, with four of them hitting the 250 mark.
Seattle enters the weeks in the bottom third of the league in blitz rate and the bottom half for pass-rush win rate — good for Stafford, who struggles under pressure — and allows the seventh-highest completion percentage. The Seahawks may also be without nickelback Devon Witherspoon, who did not practice Wednesday with a foot injury.
Industry projections range as high as 254 yards for Stafford on Sunday, giving a little bit of space against FanDuel's number, which is currently five yards below the rest of the market. This should also be a high-scoring game, as it currently sports the second-highest total of the week, which would also keep Stafford throwing throughout all four quarters.
Pick made on 10-31
CeeDee Lamb Over 84.5 receiving yards
There's something about CeeDee Lamb coming out of bye weeks where he just starts going ham.
Maybe he gets to reset? Maybe he needed to recover? Maybe he had to reintroduce himself to Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott?
Whatever it is, over the past few seasons, Lamb has turned into an absolute monster for the Dallas Cowboys in the immediate games following a bye week.
In 2022, he amassed 301 yards in his first three games after the bye. Last year, 500 yards in three post-bye games. This year? He came out of a Week 7 bye and dropped a season-high 146 yards against the 49ers.
On Sunday, he faces the Atlanta Falcons, who have struggled to contain the opponent's top pass-catcher this season and play zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Lamb has done well against zone, sporting a 28% target rate and logging the sixth-most receptions among all WR facing zone coverage this season.
Atlanta has also seen its offense hit high gear, and considering how pathetic the Cowboys' defense is — and how equally impotent their running attack is — Lamb & Co. should be chasing points all afternoon, with the heavy lifting coming from the passing game.
Lamb has 31 targets and 20 catches over his last two games and has topped this total in four of his last six contests. Industry projections average just north of 90 yards for CeeDee and range as high as 97 yards.
Pick made on 10-31
A.J. Brown longest reception Over 25.5 yards
The Philadelphia Eagles offense is rolling right now, and with the Jacksonville Jaguars defense next up in the crosshairs, I'm targeting A.J. Brown's odds to do the thing he does best — torment opponents with downfield plays.
Brown is averaging 102 yards per game (second in the NFL) and ranks Top 20 in average depth of target and yards after catch per reception. He's also hauled in at least one catch of 29+ yards in each game (seven 20+ yard catches total) and faces one of the worst secondaries in football this Sunday.
Jacksonville has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the highest air yards per attempt, and surrendered 34 completions of 20+ yards (second-most in the NFL).
This is also a juicy matchup for Brown from a schematic standpoint: The Jags run man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league but rank in the Bottom 10 of man defenses in yards per coverage snap and completion percentage (per PFF) — and Brown is eighth among all WR in yards (despite missing three games) and first in yards per route run when facing man-to-man coverage.
Brown's yardage total (75.5) is in play, but blowout potential scares me a little, so I'll settle with this prop, as even in three quarters, he should be able to connect on a big play.
Pick made on 10-31
NFL Week 9 prop betting card
- A.J. Brown longest reception Over 25.5 yards (-115)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 84.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Matthew Stafford Over 238.5 passing yards (-114)
- Josh Downs Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Chuba Hubbard Over 60.5 rushing yards (-114)
Last week: 1-4, -3.09 units
Season: 19-21, -3.55 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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