It's time to get spooky as Week 9 kicks off on Halloween, and I'm here to unveil the newest horror movie, "Nightmare on Props Street."
It's definitely one of those direct-to-DVD flicks, but it's focused on the highs and lows of betting NFL player props, as my 8-2 stretch has since been followed by a horrific 2-8 dumpster fire.
However, unlike standard scary movies, I'm not going to flee up the stairs; I'm taking this demon head-on, trusting in myself and the power of c...rummy defenses getting shredded by star players.
This isn't a horror film; it's a redemption story — and I'm starting my NFL picks for Week 9 with Eagles star A.J. Brown to haunt the Jaguars' sad-sack secondary and Dallas' CeeDee Lamb to rack up yards against Atlanta.
Latest NFL prop picks
Lamb o84.5 rec yards
(-110 at bet365)
Brown long rec o25.5 yards
(-115 at DraftKings)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 9
CeeDee Lamb Over 84.5 receiving yards
There's something about CeeDee Lamb coming out of bye weeks where he just starts going ham.
Maybe he gets to reset? Maybe he needed to recover? Maybe he had to reintroduce himself to Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott?
Whatever it is, over the past few seasons, Lamb has turned into an absolute monster for the Dallas Cowboys in the immediate games following a bye week.
In 2022, he amassed 301 yards in his first three games after the bye. Last year, 500 yards in three post-bye games. This year? He came out of a Week 7 bye and dropped a season-high 146 yards against the 49ers.
On Sunday, he faces the Atlanta Falcons, who have struggled to contain the opponent's top pass-catcher this season and play zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Lamb has done well against zone, sporting a 28% target rate and logging the sixth-most receptions among all WR facing zone coverage this season.
Atlanta has also seen its offense hit high gear, and considering how pathetic the Cowboys' defense is — and how equally impotent their running attack is — Lamb & Co. should be chasing points all afternoon, with the heavy lifting coming from the passing game.
Lamb has 31 targets and 20 catches over his last two games and has topped this total in four of his last six contests. Industry projections average just north of 90 yards for CeeDee and range as high as 97 yards.
Pick made on 10-31.
A.J. Brown longest reception Over 25.5 yards
The Philadelphia Eagles offense is rolling right now, and with the Jacksonville Jaguars defense next up in the crosshairs, I'm targeting A.J. Brown's odds to do the thing he does best — torment opponents with downfield plays.
Brown is averaging 102 yards per game (second in the NFL) and ranks Top 20 in average depth of target and yards after catch per reception. He's also hauled in at least one catch of 29+ yards in each game (seven 20+ yard catches total) and faces one of the worst secondaries in football this Sunday.
Jacksonville has allowed the second-most passing yards per game, the highest air yards per attempt, and surrendered 34 completions of 20+ yards (second-most in the NFL).
This is also a juicy matchup for Brown from a schematic standpoint: The Jags run man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league but rank in the Bottom 10 of man defenses in yards per coverage snap and completion percentage (per PFF) — and Brown is eighth among all WR in yards (despite missing three games) and first in yards per route run when facing man-to-man coverage.
Brown's yardage total (75.5) is in play, but blowout potential scares me a little, so I'll settle with this prop, as even in three quarters, he should be able to connect on a big play.
Pick made on 10-31.
NFL Week 9 prop betting card
- A.J. Brown longest reception Over 25.5 yards (-115)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 84.5 receiving yards (-110)
Last week: 1-4, -3.09 units
Season: 19-21, -3.55 units
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Odds Converter
Parlay
Print
