Chargers vs Patriots Predictions Picks, & Best Bets for NFL Week 17

Rhamondre Stevenson might not be considered the Patriots' feature back by head coach Jerod Mayo, but that's only reduced his rushing yards total to a more appealing number. Neil Parker is targeting the Over for Stevenson vs. the Chargers.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Dec 28, 2024 • 08:41 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Rhamondre Stevenson New England Patriots NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. New England Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson runs with ball vs Bills

The Los Angeles Chargers head East for an AFC clash against the New England Patriots on Saturday, December 28.

This rivalry might lack the star power of years past, but our top Chargers vs. Patriots predictions still expect a solid day on the ground for New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson despite him potentially losing his starting job in Week 17.

Let's get our NFL picks set for today's 1 p.m. ET showdown at Gillette Stadium on NFL Network.

Chargers vs Patriots predictions

Chargers vs Patriots spread prediction

Are we sure this is going to be a horrible schedule spot for the Los Angeles Chargers? The Chargers have the benefit of extra rest after winning the Thursday Night Football matchup against the Denver Broncos in Week 16. With this spread moving significantly in the New England Patriots direction, I prefer the decreased -4.5 number on the Los Angeles side. The Chargers are 10-5 against the spread this year, too.

Chargers vs Patriots moneyline prediction

New England has lost five consecutive games to sit at 3-12, and the Pats have allowed the fifth-highest EPA per play and success rate during the skid. The Chargers have obvious shortcomings, but they’re also postseason-bound and sport a respectable 9-6 record. New England also ranks 30th in both PFF grade and DVOA, with Los Angeles checking out sixth and 12th.

Chargers vs Patriots Over/Under prediction

The Pats went Under the number for the first time during their five-game losing streak last week against the Buffalo Bills, but that was a healthy 47.5 total. As highlighted, New England has struggled defensively down the stretch, and Los Angeles has also hit the Over in consecutive games while allowing 67 total points. I think both offenses will have enough success for this game to go Over the number on Saturday afternoon.

My best bet
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 44.5 rushing yards (-125 at BetMGM)

My analysis

This is the lowest rushing yards total of the season for Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson because head coach Jerod Mayo hinted that it might be Antonio Gibson starting over Stevenson against the Chargers on Saturday.

Stevenson lost a fumble and botched a backward pass that resulted in a Buffalo Bills touchdown last week, and Gibson had the higher snap share.

Still, Stevenson racked up 60 rushing yards on just 12 carries, and it was the ninth time in 14 games he recorded 48 or more yards on the ground. Additionally, Mayo also turned to Gibson as the starter in Week 5, and Stevenson responded with a tidy 89 rushing yards on just 12 carries against the Miami Dolphins.

I’m still anticipating Stevenson receiving enough carries to clear this 44.5 rushing yards benchmark, and despite the 3-12 record, there’s a lot to like about the development of the offense under rookie quarterback Drake Maye.

Defenses have to stay honest, and Stevenson has rushed for 5.2 yards per tote across two games following the New England bye in Week 14.

Of course, the Chargers have also been gashed on the ground quite regularly this season, with 16 backs rushing for 44 or more yards against them through 15 games. 

I also value that Los Angeles has struggled more and more against the run down the stretch.

Against RBs Weeks 1-9 Weeks 10-16
Rush yards allowed per game 80.3 (7th) 120.6 (29th)
Rush yards allowed per carry 4.4 (15th) 4.85 (30th)
EPA per rush -0.225 (2nd) 0.012 (27th)
Rushing success rate allowed 36% (8th) 43.1% (20th)

Stevenson might cede the starting role, first carry, and a little work, but he’s the superior rusher in the New England backfield and is positioned for an excellent afternoon on the ground.

Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!

Get more Chargers vs. Patriots picks and Week 17 best bets from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!

Watch now on the Covers' YouTube channel!

Chargers vs Patriots same-game parlay

Chargers moneyline

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 44.5 rushing yards

Austin Hooper Under 26.5 receiving yards

Again, while there is a lot to like about the maturing New England offense with Maye at the helm, the Pats are still a basement-dwelling club short on game-breaking talent.

The record, surface, and underlying statistics reinforce it, and I also give Los Angeles the coaching advantage with Jim Harbaugh. 

Turning to Pats tight end Austin Hooper, he’s in the midst of a breakout stretch with 22 receptions for 293 yards across his past six games. It resulted in his receiving yards total climbing for the sixth time in seven weeks heading into this tough matchup against Los Angeles.

The Chargers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target (6.34) this season, and a quick peek at their box scores shows it’s been the big boys who’ve done damage. Hooper is solid, but he also plays second fiddle to fellow tight end Hunter Henry.

I like Hooper’s six-game run of going Over his receiving yards total to end in Week 17.

Finally, if interested, using Chargers -4.5 instead of the moneyline boosts this SGP to +600.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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More Chargers vs Patriots picks from Covers


Chargers vs Patriots odds

Chargers vs Patriots live odds

Chargers vs Patriots opening odds

  • Spread: Los Angeles -5 (-110) | New England +5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Los Angeles -210 | New England +170
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Chargers vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

  • As noted, there has been a solid move to the New England side, with BetMGM opening Pats +5 and the number bouncing between +3.5 and +5.5 ever since.
  • I think there was a buy opportunity on the Pats at +5.5, but with the Chargers sporting a 10-5 ATS record, I’m officially steering clear unless a -4 or -3.5 Los Angeles spread becomes available again.
  • This total hasn’t moved off the opening 42.5 at BetMGM since Sunday. As a result, It’s clearly a mature market and accurate number. 
  • While the Chargers have a long-standing trend of playing to the Under, I prefer the Over side. As noted, New England played to the Under for the first time in five games last week, and Los Angeles has played to the Over in consecutive games.

Chargers vs Patriots betting trend to know

The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the game total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Patriots.

Chargers vs Patriots game info

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Date: Saturday, 12-28, 2024
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

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Chargers vs Patriots weather

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Neil Parker - Covers
Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

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