The Los Angeles Chargers head to Gillette Stadium for an AFC clash against the New England Patriots on Saturday, December 28.
This rivalry might lack the star power of years past, but our top Chargers vs. Patriots predictions still expect a solid day on the ground for New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson despite him potentially losing his starting job in Week 17.
Let's get our NFL picks set for this 1 p.m. ET showdown on NFL Network.
Chargers vs Patriots predictions
My best bet
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 44.5 rushing yards (-125 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is the lowest rushing yards total of the season for New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson because head coach Jerod Mayo hinted that it might be Antonio Gibson starting over Stevenson against the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday.
Stevenson lost a fumble and botched a backward pass that resulted in a Buffalo Bills touchdown last week, and Gibson had the higher snap share.
Still, Stevenson racked up 60 rushing yards on just 12 carries, and it was the ninth time in 14 games he recorded 48 or more yards on the ground. Additionally, Mayo also turned to Gibson as the starter in Week 5, and Stevenson responded with a tidy 89 rushing yards on just 12 carries against the Miami Dolphins.
I’m still anticipating Stevenson receiving enough carries to clear this 44.5 rushing yards benchmark, and despite the 3-12 record, there’s a lot to like about the development of the offense under rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
Defenses have to stay honest, and Stevenson has rushed for 5.2 yards per tote across two games following the New England bye in Week 14.
Of course, the Chargers have also been gashed on the ground quite regularly this season, with 16 backs rushing for 44 or more yards against them through 15 games.
I also value that Los Angeles has struggled more and more against the run down the stretch.
| Against RBs | Weeks 1-9 | Weeks 10-16 |
|---|---|---|
| Rush yards allowed per game | 80.3 (7th) | 120.6 (29th) |
| Rush yards allowed per carry | 4.4 (15th) | 4.85 (30th) |
| EPA per rush | -0.225 (2nd) | 0.012 (27th) |
| Rushing success rate allowed | 36% (8th) | 43.1% (20th) |
Stevenson might cede the starting role, first carry, and a little work, but he’s the superior rusher in the New England backfield and is positioned for an excellent afternoon on the ground.
Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Chargers vs. Patriots picks and Week 17 best bets from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
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Chargers vs Patriots same-game parlay
Chargers moneyline
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 44.5 rushing yards
Austin Hooper Under 26.5 receiving yards
Again, while there is a lot to like about the maturing New England offense with Maye at the helm, the Pats are still a basement-dwelling club short on game-breaking talent.
The record, surface, and underlying statistics reinforce it, and I also give Los Angeles the coaching advantage with Jim Harbaugh.
Turning to Pats tight end Austin Hooper, he’s in the midst of a breakout stretch with 22 receptions for 293 yards across his past six games. It resulted in his receiving yards total climbing for the sixth time in seven weeks heading into this tough matchup against Los Angeles.
The Chargers have allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target (6.34) this season, and a quick peek at their box scores shows it’s been the big boys who’ve done damage. Hooper is solid, but he also plays second fiddle to fellow tight end Hunter Henry.
I like Hooper’s six-game run of going Over his receiving yards total to end in Week 17.
Finally, if interested, using Chargers -4.5 instead of the moneyline boosts this SGP to +600.
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Chargers vs Patriots odds
Chargers vs Patriots live odds
Chargers vs Patriots opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles -5 (-110) | New England +5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -210 | New England +170
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Chargers vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis
- As noted, there has been a solid move to the New England side, with BetMGM opening Pats +5 and the number bouncing between +3.5 and +5.5 ever since.
- I think there was a buy opportunity on the Pats at +5.5, but with the Chargers sporting a 10-5 ATS record, I’m officially steering clear unless a -4 or -3.5 Los Angeles spread becomes available again.
- This total hasn’t moved off the opening 42.5 at BetMGM since Sunday. As a result, It’s clearly a mature market and accurate number.
- While the Chargers have a long-standing trend of playing to the Under, I prefer the Over side. As noted, New England played to the Under for the first time in five games last week, and Los Angeles has played to the Over in consecutive games.
Chargers vs Patriots betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the game total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Patriots.
Chargers vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
Chargers vs Patriots latest injuries
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