The NFL Divisional Round odds have saved the best for last as the heated AFC rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills — Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen — adds another chapter tonight.
Buffalo hosts Kansas City as a slim home favorite in the NFL odds with a ticket to the conference title game on the line.
The Bills were able to steal a 20-17 win in Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 14, thanks in part to the controversial offside call on Kansas City’s would-be winning play late in the game.
That finish and Mahomes’ prickly interaction with Allen afterward added more fuel on the fire for one of the best rivalries in football — and a game that will likely be the “make or break” matchup for sportsbooks this weekend.
I dissect the point spread and Over/Under for this Divisional Round contest and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Chiefs at Bills on Sunday, January 21.
Be sure to also check out our Chiefs vs. Bills prop picks along with our Patrick Mahomes spotlight props.
Chiefs vs Bills odds
Chiefs vs Bills predictions
Big players play big in big games. That means you, Josh Allen.
If the Buffalo Bills are going to continue on their improbable path to the Super Bowl and hang with the defending world champs on Sunday, it’s all on Allen.
This is especially true considering the state of Buffalo’s banged-up defense, which has watched its depth chart thin out like it was cursed by a pissed-off gypsy. The Bills had a tough time slowing down Mason Rudolph and the Steelers last Monday. What do you think Patrick Mahomes will do to them?
I should mention I took the Kansas City Chiefs +3 in my NFL Underdogs column and expect a bit of a shootout, with Allen and Buffalo trying to go tit-for-tat. And looking at his recent efforts, I think he’s up to the challenge.
Allen’s NFL player props markets have his passing touchdown total set at 1.5 TD strikes, a reflection of his dwindling touchdown total toward the end of the regular season but also the Bills’ commitment to the ground game in the home stretch.
That said, Allen has thrown for five touchdowns in the past two games, three of which came in the Wild Card win over Pittsburgh. His two touchdown throws against the Dolphins in Week 18’s battle for the AFC East crown could have easily been four if not for an interception in the red zone and a goal-line drop in the first half.
Allen only had one passing touchdown in the 20-17 victory at Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 14, with the Bills getting just two red-zone possessions. But he’s been able to crack Steve Spagnuolo’s schemes for scoring plays in past matchups.
Allen had three TD passes versus Kansas City in 2022, connected for three and four TDs in two meetings in 2021, and had two touchdown passes in each of the matchups with the Chiefs in 2020.
Adding to the likelihood of two or more touchdown passes from Allen is a receiving corps close to full capacity — something that wasn’t there during the home stretch of the schedule when Allen averaged only 1.25 touchdown passes between Week 9 and Week 17.
Allen has this dynamic duo of tight ends together again in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, WR Gabe Davis could be back after sitting out the Wild Card Round, and top target Stefon Diggs is back in the mix (14 catches on 17 targets for 139 yards last two games) after going MIA in December.
Divisional Round player projections for Allen range from 1.1 to 1.6 touchdown passes with the majority of models sitting on or above the 1.5 TD total. Given his current form and what I believe is a narrative that prompts him to pass more, I love seeing this market bouncing around EVEN money.
My best bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs (-106 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Chiefs vs Bills same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing TDs
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing TDs
Travis Kelce anytime TD
Allen’s connected for five touchdowns in the last two games and could have had more. The Bills’ hopes rest on his big arm finding paydirt.
Mahomes could face a skeleton crew in the Buffalo secondary, which didn’t look right against the Steelers in the Wild Card.
Travis Kelce has scored one touchdown since October 29 but he’s still the top red-zone option and will find space versus the depleted Bills defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
Look-ahead lines listed before Buffalo’s postponed win over Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round have the Bills listed between -2 and -3. Once that Monday matchup was finished, most sportsbooks opened at -2.5.
As of Thursday, this spread sits at Buffalo -2.5 at most shops with a few expensive field goal spreads at outlier operators. According to Covers Consensus, 63% of picks are laying the short points with the home fave.
The one big factor keeping this spread off the key number of a field goal is the uncertain state of the Buffalo defense and the significant rest advantage for the Chiefs. Due to the Bills' original Sunday game being postponed to Monday due to weather, they’re having to play on a short week against a KC squad that blasted the Miami Dolphins on Saturday.
The Bills stop unit was already down key cogs, but Buffalo enters the Divisional Round with five starters listed as questionable and several backups also injured.
Most of those ailments are in the secondary, which is the worst area to have cluster injuries considering the opposition is the best quarterback in the league. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense hasn’t been as automatic compared to past years, but this is still a dangerous attack with plenty of playmakers.
Unlike past seasons, however, the offense isn’t the star of the show in Kansas City. That top billing belongs to Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. The Chiefs stop unit has been consistently stingy all season, finishing the regular season ranked No. 7 in Defensive DVOA and No. 6 in EPA allowed per play.
Buffalo is looking for Allen to carry the load again, especially if the Bills defense buckles. Allen has been stellar the past two games (Week 18 and Wild Card), passing for five touchdowns and completing 51 of 68 passes along with 141 total rushing yards. He went 23-for-42 passing with 233 yards against Kansas City in Week 14, with one touchdown, one interception, and 32 rushing yards.
The Chiefs and Bills stayed well below the closing total of 49 points in that regular season clash. The Divisional Round Over/Under opened much shorter at 46 points and has slimmed to 45, with Covers Consensus showing 52% of picks on the Over.
Kansas City finished as one of the best Under bets in the NFL due to its strong defense and the underperforming offense. The Chiefs rely on shorter, quicker throws and the run game has been very prominent in recent weeks, running the ball on almost 43% of snaps.
As for the Bills, the ground game has been the backbone of this late-season push for the playoffs. Buffalo has handed off on almost 51% of snaps in the past three games, which means shorter gains and a continuous clock. Buffalo has also been a solid Under play in 2023-24, owning a 6-11 O/U record overall.
The weather for Highmark Stadium is nowhere as severe as last weekend when the Sunday slot was bumped to Monday. Current forecasts are void of any snow but do call for sustained winds of 13 mph with gusts up to 22 mph and “feels like” temperatures as low as 6 degrees.
Chiefs vs Bills betting trend to know
Since 2018, when Patrick Mahomes took over as the Chiefs QB1, Kansas City has been a road underdog only eight times. The Chiefs are 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in those games as road pups. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Bills.
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Chiefs vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, January 21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Bills -2.5, 45.5 |
Chiefs vs Bills latest injuries
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