Covers is throwing an entry into the Circa Million Pro Football contest for the 2021 season and Adam Chernoff has been tabbed to make the weekly picks so let's dig right in.
Here are his five ATS picks for Week 13 of the Circa Million betting contest.
Week 12 record: 4-1
Season to date: 37-23
Week 13 picks
- Washington +1.5
- Minnesota -7.5
- L.A. Chargers +3
- NY Jets +6.5
- New England +2.5
Read on for a quick analysis of each play.
Washington +1.5
What does Washington need to do to earn respect? It’s won three consecutive games as an underdog, and since Week 8, ranks inside the Top 10 for offensive efficiency. The Football Team are only getting healthier each week too. Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel both returned on Monday in limited roles and will be 100% this week against Las Vegas.
The Raiders offense continues to trend in the wrong direction. This week, they will be without Darren Waller and Desean Jackson will play in a limited role. Washington is the better team and may close as the favorite. At +2.5, it’s a straightforward pick.
Minnesota -7.5
Both teams lose their starting running back, but the absence of D'Andre Swift will have a greater impact in this game. The Lions are a big underdog, and Goff targets Swift at a much higher rate when trailing than in other situations. Without Swift in the lineup, this limited Lions pass game becomes even easier to defend.
No Cook will have an impact long-term, but the chance of an increased pass rate from the Vikings against this league-worst Lions secondary is a nice thought when laying a touchdown.
L.A. Chargers +3
Cincinnati is getting too much respect in the market this week. The last two weeks, they have won by 29 and 31 in games with box scores that do not reflect the margin of victory. Throughout the course of the season, they have beaten up on weak opposing offenses.
Only twice have they faced an opponent that ranks inside the Top 15 for offensive efficiency (GB, CLE) and they lost both games. This week, they get their most difficult opposing offense of the season in Los Angeles. The Chargers rank higher than Cincinnati in net yards per play and net success rate. This is too many points.
NY Jets +6.5
Rumors all week suggest that Jalen Hurts is going to play at much less than 100%. Nothing about the language and tone Nick Siriani has used this week suggests he will be as mobile as we have seen. Matched up against a Jets defensive front that ranks 13th in run-stop win rate, this Eagles offense may look a lot less explosive than we have seen since Week 8.
This is the biggest price the Eagles have laid this entire season, and coming off an outright loss as a 4-point favorite at NY Giants last week, a touchdown is too much to lay.
New England +2.5
The Buffalo Bills have faced two physical running games this season (TEN, IND). They failed to win both games, conceded more than 400 total yards on the ground and allowed eight rushing touchdowns. The Bills have one of the worst run-stop units in the league and get the ultimate test this week against a more physical and aggressive run game than both Tennessee and Indianapolis in the Patriots.
The conditions set up well for the Patriots too. Winds north of 20mph, snow and freezing cold. Not only will New England be able to rely on their strength to move the ball, the Patriots catch a break on defense with the Bills entering the game with the 30th-ranked ground attack efficiency. Patriots getting 2.5 is a great bet.
Football Contest Countdown
Before making your football contest picks, you'll want to watch the Covers Football Contest Countdown. Adam Chernoff brings on noted contest player Las Vegas Cris and they walk through the weekly odds — right after Circa releases their lines — with the goal of predicting the top consensus plays of the week. The show streams live on Thursdays at 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT each Thursday on YouTube and Twitter and is available on-demand at any time.
